The environment in the news wednesday, 31 October, 2012


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Other Environment News
AP: Scientists look at climate change, the superstorm
30 October 2012
Climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer stood along the Hudson River and watched his research come to life as Hurricane Sandy blew through New York.
Just eight months earlier, the Princeton University professor reported that what used to be once-in-a-century devastating floods in New York City would soon happen every three to 20 years. He blamed global warming for pushing up sea levels and changing hurricane patterns.
New York "is now highly vulnerable to extreme hurricane-surge flooding," he wrote.
For more than a dozen years, Oppenheimer and other climate scientists have been warning about the risk for big storms and serious flooding in New York. A 2000 federal report about global warming's effect on the United States warned specifically of that possibility.
Still, they say it's unfair to blame climate change for Sandy and the destruction it left behind. They cautioned that they cannot yet conclusively link a single storm to global warming, and any connection is not as clear and simple as environmental activists might contend.
"The ingredients of this storm seem a little bit cooked by climate change, but the overall storm is difficult to attribute to global warming," Canada's University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver said.
Some individual parts of Sandy and its wrath seem to be influenced by climate change, several climate scientists said.
First, there's sea level rise. Water levels around New York are a nearly a foot higher than they were 100 years ago, said Penn State University climate scientist Michael Mann.
Add to that the temperature of the Atlantic Ocean, which is about 2 degrees warmer on average than a century ago, said Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist at Texas Tech University. Warm water fuels hurricanes.
And Sandy zipped north along a warmer-than-normal Gulf Stream that travels from the Caribbean to Ireland, said Jeff Masters, meteorology director for the private service Weather Underground.
Meteorologists are also noticing more hurricanes late in the season and even after the season. A 2008 study said the Atlantic hurricane season seems to be starting earlier and lasting longer but found no explicit link to global warming. Normally there are 11 named Atlantic storms. The past two years have seen 19 and 18 named storms. This year, with one month to go, there are 19.
After years of disagreement, climate scientists and hurricane experts have concluded that as the climate warms, there will be fewer total hurricanes. But those storms that do develop will be stronger and wetter.
Sandy took an unprecedented sharp left turn into New Jersey. Usually storms keep heading north and turn east harmlessly out to sea. But a strong ridge of high pressure centered over Greenland blocked Sandy from going north or east, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University, an expert in how a warming Arctic affects extreme weather patterns, said recent warming in the Arctic may have played a role in enlarging or prolonging that high pressure area. But she cautioned it's not clear whether the warming really had that influence on Sandy.
While components of Sandy seem connected to global warming, "mostly it's natural, I'd say it's 80, 90 percent natural," said Gerald North, a climate professor at Texas A&M University. "These things do happen, like the drought. It's a natural thing."
On Tuesday, both New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Gov. Andrew Cuomo said they couldn't help but notice that extreme events like Sandy are causing them more and more trouble.
"What is clear is that the storms that we've experienced in the last year or so, around this country and around the world, are much more severe than before," Bloomberg said. "Whether that's global warming or what, I don't know. But we'll have to address those issues."
Cuomo called the changes "a new reality."
"Anyone who says that there's not a dramatic change in weather patterns I think is denying reality," Cuomo said. "I told the president the other day: 'We have a 100-year flood every two years now.'"
For his published research, Oppenheimer looked at New York City's record flood of 1821. Sandy flooded even higher. This week's damage was augmented by the past century's sea level rise, which was higher than the world average because of unusual coastal geography and ocean currents. Oppenheimer walked from his Manhattan home to the river Monday evening to watch the storm.
"We sort of knew it could happen, but you know that's different from actually standing there and watching it happen," Oppenheimer said from a cell phone. "You don't really imagine what this looks like until you see it."
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Reuters: Climate and cost concerns mount in wake of "superstorm"
31 October 2012
Monday's mammoth storm that caused severe flooding, damage and fatalities to the eastern U.S. will raise pressure on Congress and the next president to address the impacts of climate change as the price tag for extreme weather disasters escalates.
Hurricane Sandy devastated the east coast of the United States, claiming dozens of lives so far, cutting power to over 8 million people and damaging major roadways, buildings and infrastructure, such as New York's 108-year old subway system.
Eqecat, one of the three primary firms used by the insurance industry to calculate disaster exposures, said Sandy could cause anywhere from $5 billion to $10 billion in insured losses and from $10 billion to $20 billion in economic losses, Reuters reported.
This would outdo the roughly $4.5 billion in insured losses caused by last year's Hurricane Irene, which also hit the northeast.
Sharlene Leurig, senior manager for insurance and water programs at Ceres, warned that in addition to the physical damage caused by Monday's storm, there would also be damage "on the balance sheet of taxpayers in the U.S.," raising pressure on Congress to take action on climate change.
"The sort of storm we just saw is likely to be more common in some of the most populated and valuable areas of the country," she said.
She said the government's national flood insurance program (NFIP) is already in nearly $20 billion in debt since 2005's Hurricane Katrina and would likely cost taxpayers more as such storms become more frequent.
Some taxpayer groups have called on Congress to further reform the flood insurance program and said that reinsurance companies are better positioned to absorb the costs and risks related to extreme weather occurrences.
"It appears likely that Sandy will exhaust the NFIP's remaining $3 billion of statutory borrowing authority, meaning it will need to request more money from Congress to pay its claims," said R.J. Lehmann, a senior fellow at free market policy research group R Street.
The R Street Institute is the insurance spinoff of the Heartland Institute, a group which has funded several high-profile campaigns questioning manmade climate change, but Lehmann has said the group does not promote "climate skepticism."
"In the short term, we would insist the NFIP use its existing authority to raise rates, buy reinsurance and issue catastrophe bonds, so that the private market, rather than taxpayers, assume the risk of these sorts of catastrophes in the future.
Sustainablity-focused investor group Ceres said that while 2012 private insured losses were lower so far this year than last year, when floods, heat waves, tornadoes and other extreme weather events gripped the U.S., total economic losses are likely to be significant.
On top of Hurricane Sandy, this year's drought alone is expected to cost insurers $20 billion, with most of those costs being shouldered by the federal crop insurance program.
"This storm, taken into consideration alongside one of the most economically damaging droughts in the last century, alongside wildfires that reached catastrophic proportions in the west… really point to the need for members of Congress to start taking seriously the reality that climate change is already upon us," said Leurig.
Environmental groups and some political analysts said the exclusion of the climate change issue in this year's presidential and vice presidential debates was a missed opportunity to bring the issue back into the national debate.
Although the House of Representatives passed a comprehensive climate change bill in 2009, similar efforts failed in the Senate.
The issue became a taboo subject after the Tea Party and some stiffly opposed Republicans ramped up efforts to derail climate legislation and regulatory programs to slash greenhouse gas emissions.
Jennifer Morgan and Kevin Kennedy of the World Resources Institute, wrote in a blog post Tuesday that the silence on climate change on the campaign trail was "extremely troubling" given the recent spate of extreme weather events and their economic impacts.
"We need our elected officials to break their silence on climate change. Whether climate change comes up in the final days of the campaign or not, the next president and Congress will need to step up and do more on this issue," they wrote.
Former President Bill Clinton, who has been campaigning on President Barack Obama's behalf, took aim at a quip made by Republican challenger Mitt Romney at the Republican convention that the president cared more about the rise of ocean levels than families.
At a campaign speech in Minnesota on Tuesday, Clinton addressed the climate impacts of Hurricane Sandy.
"All up and down the East Coast, there are mayors, many of them Republicans, who are being told, ‘You've got to move these houses back away from the ocean. You've got to lift them up," he told the crowd.
"Climate change is going to raise the water levels on a permanent basis. If you want your town insured, you have to do this," Clinton said.
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Xinhua (China): Better Energy Efficiency Boosts China's Transition to Green Economy
31 October 2012
Higher energy-efficiency standards, rational prices on carbon and deep investments in urban energy infrastructure could quicken China's transition to a green economy, said Niels B. Christiansen, CEO of Danfoss, a world giant in green technology and business.
China could make financial savings and improve living standards by adopting tougher regulation governing energy efficiency of homes, offices and factories, among others, Christiansen told Xinhua in a recent interview.
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
"By raising these standards, the transition would get going, and a lot of good technologies will be deployed," he said.
"In the short term, raising standards is a bit expensive, so there will be a challenge in making sure it happens nevertheless, to make sure we eventually get savings," he added, referring to problems facing China's green transition.
The UN's Environment Program defines the green economy as one where "growth in income and employment should be driven by public and private investments that reduce carbon emissions and pollution, enhance energy and resource efficiency, and prevent the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services."
China is greening its economy on multiple fronts under its ongoing 12th Five-Year Plan, including by reducing dependence on coal-fired plants with those run on renewable sources like biomass, wind energy and solar power, as well as wider and improved deployment of nuclear power.
Better insulation of homes and offices to cut heating bills, combined urban heat and power networks, improved energy-efficiency of production facilities, and alternative-fuel cars, are being implemented along with other solutions.
Danfoss, headquartered in Denmark, is a global leading manufacturer of energy-efficiency and temperature-control devices, and has extensive production, research and development facilities in China. It believes higher energy efficiency standards are urgently needed to improve the competitiveness and sustainability of Chinese industry.
"China needs to be thinking about getting to 'best in class' standards, because that is where the green transition actually will happen, and money will be saved. The way to go is to start to raise standards, so that everybody competing in that market will have to meet a certain level," Christiansen said.
To illustrate his point Christiansen mentioned the radiator thermostat, a product which provides 20 to 40 percent energy savings, and is found in radiators in most European homes. He said most Chinese homes "of similar level" do not have radiators with thermostats, meaning they simply miss out on these savings.
He added that solutions like thermostats, which are built on existing technology, are among "the low-hanging fruits which could help kick-start this transition" and should be made "mandatory."
CARBON PRICE
Meanwhile, putting a reasonable price on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, which are linked to global warming, would automatically provide a China-wide standard that all industries would have to adhere to.
"We have seen in many countries that a subsidized energy price, that is artificially low, makes the transition slower, because it keeps us using old technology for longer," Christiansen said.
He said energy must be priced "at its real cost" so that companies are urged to use energy-saving technologies, boost research and development into clean energy, and thus accelerate the green transition.
For its part, the Chinese government says it plans to increase the share of non fossil-fuel based energy in the country's total energy consumption to 11.4 percent in 2015, up from 8.3 percent in 2010.
Already, China is the world's leading maker of wind turbines and solar panels, and its largest market for wind power. Were energy prices to rise, thereby making it more expensive to use CO2-emitting fossil fuels, the appeal of renewable energy would likely increase.
Denmark is a successful case in point: its economy has grown 78 percent since 1980, while keeping energy consumption more or less constant, and slashing CO2 emissions.
The quest for energy efficiency and renewable power has led it to develop a world-class on-and-offshore wind-turbine industry, and a host of other companies specializing in clean technologies and environment-friendly solutions. Wind power itself is expected to contribute 50 percent of Danish electricity production by 2020.
URBAN HEATING
Danfoss typically manufactures products that improve energy efficiency of everyday equipment such as electric motors, refrigerators and technology for district heating networks, where heat generated by electricity plants is piped for heating homes and office.
Christiansen believes the latter technology can have rapid, widespread positive impact in China's urban areas by cutting energy use, improving energy efficiencies by utilizing waste heat, and thereby cutting power costs for consumers.
Along with local authorities, Danfoss recently rolled out a modern district-heating network in Anshan city, Liaoning Province. Under the plan, local homes are switching from heat supplied by old, small boilers, and are instead receiving waste heat piped from a nearby steel plant.
"Previously, that waste heat was simply dumped, lost in the air, and now it is utilized to provide heating comfort for one million people," Christiansen said.
Over time, such projects could make ordinary people more aware of their energy consumption, not least as they receive cheaper energy bills, and thereby understand the benefits of a green economy.
"That is another important element in the transition: to make the population aware of the benefit of being more efficient with energy," Christiansen said.
The total cost of the Anshan city district heating scheme, where Danfoss is the project's biggest technology provider, is around 400 million CNY (64 million U.S. dollars). While consumers access a stable heat source, the steel plant earns on what was previously a waste product, and the city authorities make energy and cost savings.
Christiansen said this model could be replicated around China as one "can probably find 50 or 100 cities with the exact same needs."
Although the necessary skills and technologies to implement such schemes already exist in China, the core infrastructure around energy networks needs to be developed to spur green growth.
Furthermore, project finance would have come from national or local governments, although public-private partnerships could be a future investment alternative, Christiansen added.
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Guardian (UK): Hitachi energises future of low-carbon power in the UK
30 October 2012
The future of low-carbon energy in the UK became a little clearer on Tuesday when a new player entered the nuclear race and the government published a shortlist of four potential carbon capture and storage projects that will compete for funding.
The Japanese industrial company Hitachi has agreed to buy the nuclear consortium Horizon, a former project of the German utilities RWE and E.ON, which they put up for sale when they decided to bow out of UK nuclear energy in March.
Hitachi, which faces a nuclear shutdown in its home market after the Fukushima incident last year, will pay £700m and hopes to construct up to four nuclear reactors across the country. Horizon plans new reactors at Wylfa on Anglesey, north Wales, and Oldbury in Gloucestershire.
The Japanese company's move means EDF, which last week threatened to hold the government to ransom for higher subsidies for its nuclear plans, will face competition in constructing new reactors. David Cameron said: "This is a decades-long, multibillion-pound vote of confidence that will contribute vital new infrastructure to power our economy. It will support up to 12,000 jobs during construction and thousands more permanent highly skilled roles once the new power plants are operational, as well as stimulating exciting new industrial investments in the UK's nuclear supply chain."
At the same time, a pot of £1bn in government funding will be made available to up to three projects that promise to be the first major demonstration of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology in the UK.
The four shortlisted projects – chosen from eight submissions – are made up of two in Scotland (one at Grangemouth and another at Peterhead), along with one in Teesside and a project connected to the UK's biggest coal-fired power station, Drax in Yorkshire.
Edward Davey, secretary of state for energy and climate change, said: "[This] is an important step towards an exciting new industry, one that could help us reduce our carbon emissions and create thousands of jobs."
But critics complained that the government had merely put off its decision on CCS, as the precise details of the funding will not be announced until next year.
Tom Greatrex the shadow energy minister, said: "Yet again Ed Davey has kicked a decision about support for CCS into the long grass, creating more uncertainty for the industry. We are now at risk of losing our competitive advantage in developing low-carbon technologies, engineering expertise and valuable skills that we could export around the globe." owing to the difficulty of putting together a business plan that would satisfy investors.
The scale of the energy challenge facing the UK is daunting. John Loughhead, executive director of the UK Energy Research Council, said it was the equivalent of having to run an operation the size of the Olympics every two years for the next two and a half decades. He said every CCS plant would cost about £1bn for the carbon capture technology alone, in addition to the money needed to build the power plant, and about $70 per tonne for dealing with the resulting carbon dioxide on an ongoing basis.
Stuart Haszeldine, an expert on CCS at University of Edinburgh, said the announcement had injected momentum into the important task of developing technology that will be needed to meet the UK's carbon targets. "It is unexpectedly good news. We now have four plausible designs. It's about [the Department of Energy and Climate Change] knocking heads together to see if the companies can improve the commercial terms of the deals by co-operating."
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Independent Online (South Africa): Experts predicted NY superstorm – report
31 October 2012
Climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer stood along the Hudson River and watched his research come to life as Hurricane Sandy blew through New York.
Just eight months earlier, the Princeton University professor reported that what used to be once-in-a-century devastating floods in New York City would soon happen every three to 20 years. He blamed global warming for pushing up sea levels and changing hurricane patterns.
New York “is now highly vulnerable to extreme hurricane-surge flooding,” he wrote.
For more than a dozen years, Oppenheimer and other climate scientists have been warning about the risk for big storms and serious flooding in New York. A 2000 federal report about global warming's effect on the United States warned specifically of that possibility.
Still, they say it's unfair to blame climate change for Sandy and the destruction it left behind. They cautioned that they cannot yet conclusively link a single storm to global warming, and any connection is not as clear and simple as environmental activists might contend.
“The ingredients of this storm seem a little bit cooked by climate change, but the overall storm is difficult to attribute to global warming,” Canada's University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver said.
Some individual parts of Sandy and its wrath seem to be influenced by climate change, several climate scientists said.
First, there's sea level rise. Water levels around New York are a nearly a foot (0.3 meters) higher than they were 100 years ago, said Penn State University climate scientist Michael Mann.
Add to that the temperature of the Atlantic Ocean, which is about 2 degrees Fahrenheit (.8 degrees Celsius) warmer on average than a century ago, said Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist at Texas Tech University. Warm water fuels hurricanes.
And Sandy zipped north along a warmer-than-normal Gulf Stream that travels from the Caribbean to Ireland, said Jeff Masters, meteorology director for the private service Weather Underground.
Meteorologists are also noticing more hurricanes late in the season and even after the season. A 2008 study said the Atlantic hurricane season seems to be starting earlier and lasting longer but found no explicit link to global warming. Normally there are 11 named Atlantic storms. The past two years have seen 19 and 18 named storms. This year, with one month to go, there are 19.
After years of disagreement, climate scientists and hurricane experts have concluded that as the climate warms, there will be fewer total hurricanes. But those storms that do develop will be stronger and wetter.
Sandy took an unprecedented sharp left turn into New Jersey. Usually storms keep heading north and turn east harmlessly out to sea. But a strong ridge of high pressure centred over Greenland blocked Sandy from going north or east, according to the National Hurricane Centre.
Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University, an expert in how a warming Arctic affects extreme weather patterns, said recent warming in the Arctic may have played a role in enlarging or prolonging that high pressure area. But she cautioned it's not clear whether the warming really had that influence on Sandy.
While components of Sandy seem connected to global warming, “mostly it's natural, I'd say it's 80, 90 percent natural,” said Gerald North, a climate professor at Texas A&M University. “These things do happen, like the drought. It's a natural thing.”
On Tuesday, both New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Gov. Andrew Cuomo said they couldn't help but notice that extreme events like Sandy are causing them more and more trouble.
“What is clear is that the storms that we've experienced in the last year or so, around this country and around the world, are much more severe than before,” Bloomberg said. “Whether that's global warming or what, I don't know. But we'll have to address those issues.”
Cuomo called the changes “a new reality.”
“Anyone who says that there's not a dramatic change in weather patterns I think is denying reality,” Cuomo said. “I told the president the other day: 'We have a 100-year flood every two years now.'“
For his published research, Oppenheimer looked at New York City's record flood of 1821. Sandy flooded even higher. This week's damage was augmented by the past century's sea level rise, which was higher than the world average because of unusual coastal geography and ocean currents. Oppenheimer walked from his Manhattan home to the river Monday evening to watch the storm.
“We sort of knew it could happen, but you know that's different from actually standing there and watching it happen,” Oppenheimer said from a cell phone. “You don't really imagine what this looks like until you see it.”
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