The Rate Debate Slowing
Impact - Authoritarianism
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- Climate change doubles risk of civil conflict
- Climate change could link to one fifth of global civil conflicts
- Climate change impacts stability – doubles likelihood of civil war and may have caused one fifth of global conflicts
Impact - AuthoritarianismClimate change leads to authoritarianism – studies prove Fritsche 12 (Immo Fritsche, Institut für Psychologie, Lehrstuhl für Sozialpsychologie, Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena, Germany, J. Christopher Cohrs, School of Psychology, Queen’s University Belfast, United Kingdom, Thomas Kessler, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Germany, Judith Bauer, Institut für Psychologie, Abteilung Sozialpsychologie, Universität Leipzig, Germany, journal published on 3/12, published online on 9/24/11, “Global warming is breeding social conflict: The subtle impact of climate change threat on authoritarian tendencies,” Journal of Environmental Psychology, Volume 32, Issue 1, pages 1-10, ScienceDirect) Climate change can increase societies’ propensity to conflict by changes in socio-structural conditions (e.g., resource scarcity, migration). We propose an additional, subtle, and general effect of climate change threat via increases in authoritarian attitudes. Three studies in Germany and the UK support this suggestion. Reminding participants of the adverse consequences climate change may have for their country increased the derogation of societal groups that may threaten the collective (e.g., criminals) as well as general authoritarian attitudes. Salient climate change threats also led to system justification and approval of system supporting groups (e.g., judges) in those people who were highly identified with their nation. We discuss the implications of these findings for the explanation of authoritarian attitudes and the question of how societies may cope with the subtle social psychological effects of climate change. Climate change doubles risk of civil conflict Schiermeier 11 — (Quirin Schiermeier, staff writer, published online on 8/24/11, “Climate cycles drive civil war,” Nature, “International weekly journal of science,” accessed online, http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110824/full/news.2011.501.html) Previous studies have focused on the question of how anthropogenic climate change might increase conflict risk. A 2009 study2 by economist Marshall Burke at the University of California, Berkeley, and his co-workers found that the probability of armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa was about 50% higher than normal in some unusually warm years since 1981. But critics point to statistical problems — for instance when linking possibly random local temperature and rainfall variations with outbreaks of civil war — that may have resulted in a false appearance of causality. To overcome this problem, Solomon Hsiang, an economist currently at Princeton University in New Jersey, and his colleagues opted to look at how historical changes in the global, rather than local, climate affect conflict risk1. Clear signal The team designed a 'quasi-experiment' for which they divided the world into regions strongly affected by the ENSO — the tropical parts of South America, Africa and the Asia–Pacific region, including parts of Australia — and regions only weakly affected by it. They then searched for a link between climate and armed conflicts that arose in the first group between 1950 and 2004. A very clear signal appeared in the data. The team found that the risk of annual civil conflict doubles, from 3% to 6%, in countries of the ENSO-affected, or 'teleconnected', group during El Niño years relative to La Niña years. In many cases, conflicts that might have broken out anyway may have occurred earlier owing to the effects of El Niño, Hsiang suggests. Climate change could link to one fifth of global civil conflicts Schiermeier 11 — (Quirin Schiermeier, staff writer, published online on 8/24/11, “Climate cycles drive civil war,” Nature, “International weekly journal of science,” accessed online, http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110824/full/news.2011.501.html) Civil conflicts have been by far the most common form of organized political violence in recent decades, Hsiang says. Globally, one-fifth of the 240 or so civil conflicts since 1950 could be linked to the 4–7-year climate cycle originating in the southern Pacific, the study concludes. The results were unaffected by any modification to the statistical set-up of the analysis — such as excluding particularly crisis-prone African countries — which the team performed to confirm the robustness of their findings. Climate change impacts stability – doubles likelihood of civil war and may have caused one fifth of global conflicts Goodman 11 — interview conducted by Amy Goodman, host of Democracy Now!, “A Daily Independent Global News Hour,” 8/29/11, “Global Warming & War: New Study Finds Link Between Climate Change and Conflict,” an interview with Solomon Hsiang, lead author of a study linking civil wars with global climate change, and postdoctoral researcher at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University, Democracy Now!) We move to another issue around climate. A new study has found that war is associated with global climate. According to the report, there are links between the climate phenomenon El Niño and outbreaks of violence in countries from southern Sudan to Indonesia and Peru. In fact, the scientists find that El Niño, which brings hot and dry conditions to tropical nations, doubles the risk of civil war in up to 90 countries. The study was published online last week in the journal Nature. El Niño may help account for a fifth of conflicts worldwide during the past 50 years. Directory: files files -> Answer True False 2 points Question 2 files -> Integer programming and game theory files -> 4 Integer Programming files -> Bpa vehicle Window Repair Scenario #1 task: Procure vehicle window relacement. Objective files -> Pop Warner History files -> North Carolina Inclusion Initiative Mapping Where Children with ieps are Being Served Purpose files -> Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Program Data: Standard 1 Exhibit 4d files -> Hanban – asia society confucius classrooms network 2010 request for proposal files -> Northern England’s set-jetting locations Download 0.98 Mb. Share with your friends:
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