The Rate Debate Slowing
AT: Warming Solves Itself
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AT: Warming Solves ItselfAtmospheric CO2 lingers and decay is slow Cherubini et al. (FRANCESCO CHERUBINI*, GLEN P. PETERSw, TERJE BERNTSENwz, ANDERS H. STRØMMAN*andEDGAR HERTWICH* *Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway, wCenter for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO), Oslo, Norway, zDepartment of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Norway) 2011 (Francesco, “CO2 emissions from biomass combustion for bioenergy: atmospheric decay and contribution to global warming,” GCB Bioenergy (2011) 3, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1757-1707.2011.01102.x/full, Pages 415-416) //CL *Note in this article “C” refers to carbon as indicated by the author at the beginning Atmospheric decay. Thanks to the elaboration of these CC models it is possible to predict the atmospheric decay of CO2 emissions (Maier-Reimer & Hasselmann, 1987; Lashof & Ahuja, 1990; Caldeira & Kasting, 1993; Joos et al., 1996, 2001; Enting et al., 2001). In all the cases, CO2 does not follow a simple decay according to one single lifetime (as it is for the two other main GHG, N2O and CH4), but its decay is described by several time constants and there is a fraction of the initial emission that always remains in the atmosphere. The fraction of CO2 remaining in the air following a CO2 release depends on future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, because the partial pressure of CO2 in the ocean surface is a nonlinear function of surface total dissolved inorganic C concentration (Caldeira & Kasting, 1993). The analytical form of the atmospheric decay of anthropogenic CO2 is given by a superposition of a number of exponentials of different amplitude Ai and relaxation time ti The value of this function at any time represents the fraction of the initial emission which is still found in the atmosphere, and the removed fraction corresponds to the ocean/biosphere uptake. The amplitude A0 represents the asymptotic airborne fraction of CO2 which remains in the atmosphere because of the equilibrium response of the ocean–atmosphere system. The amplitudes Ai may be interpreted as the relative capacity of the other sinks, which are filled up by the atmospheric input at rates characterized by the relaxation time scales ti. These time scales determine the redistribution of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the climate system and are linked to the time scales of the natural C cycle. Because of this exponential decay trend, more than half of the initial input is removed from the atmosphere within few decades after emissions through uptake by the upper ocean layer and the fast overturning reservoirs of the land biosphere. However, a certain fraction is still found in the atmosphere after 1000 years; this fraction is only very slowly reduced further by ocean–sediment interaction and the weathering cycle (Archer et al., 1998). AT: Intervening ActorsIntervening actors arguments justify delay - that multiplies the costs which collapses the economy and means intervention fails Taylor (Managing editor of Environment & Climate News, senior fellow at The Heartland Institute, bachelor’s degree from Dartmouth College, law degree from Syracuse University College of Law) 2012 (John M., “Chevy Volt Costing Taxpayers $250,000 Per Car,” July 17, 2012, http://news.heartland.org/newspaper-article/2012/07/17/chevy-volt-costing-taxpayers-250000-car) //CL Despite $700 million dollars in development costs and taxpayer subsidies of $250,000 per vehicle, Chevrolet is selling very few Chevy Volts, Seton Motley of News Busters reports today in an eye-opening column. The federal government and various state governments repeatedly bill taxpayers for a litany of “can’t miss” automobile technologies that repeatedly end in failure. Remember California’s hydrogen highway? How about the Bush administration’s own wasted investments in unrealistic hydrogen technologies? Taxpayer dollars pour into hybrid vehicles that rarely save enough money in fuel costs to justify their additional expense (let alone their additional environmental damage). Now we have the Chevy Volt as the latest black hole for taxpayer subsidies. If a technology makes sense, it will succeed with or without government subsidies and mandates. On the other hand, no amount of government subsidies or mandates can ever make a failure technology beneficial for society. AT: AerosolsAerosols cannot completely reverse the effects of warming Global Warming Focus 12 (6/11/12, “Global Warming and Climate Change; Data from University of Washington Provide New Insights into Global Warming and Climate Change” Global Warming Focus, ProQuest) Our news editors obtained a quote from the research by the authors from the University of Washington, "The Community Climate System Model, version 3, is used to evaluate simulations with enhanced CO2 and prescribed stratospheric sulfate to investigate the effects on regional climate. To further explore the sensitivity of these regions to ocean dynamics, a suite of simulations with and without ocean dynamics is run. The authors find that, when global average warming is roughly canceled by aerosols, temperature changes in the polar regions are still 20%-50% of the changes in a warmed world. Atmospheric circulation anomalies are also not canceled, which affects the regional climate response. It is also found that agreement between simulations with and without ocean dynamics is poorest in the high latitudes. The polar climate is determined by processes that are highly parameterized in climate models. Thus, one should expect that the projected climate response to geoengineering will be at least as uncertain in these regions as it is to increasing greenhouse gases. In the context of climate emergencies, such as melting arctic sea ice and polar ice sheets and a food crisis due to a heated tropics, the authors find that, while it may be possible to avoid tropical climate crises, preventing polar climate emergencies is not certain." Aerosols cause warming Idso et. al 11 (Craig, Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, CO2 Magazine, Robert Carter, paleontologist, stratiagrapher, geologist, research fellow at James Cook Univ., Fred Singer, Environmental Science @ UVA, Susan Crockford, PhD Anthropology @ Victoria, Joseph D'Aleo, Executive Director of ICECAP, Co-Chief Meteorologist, Indur Goklany, founded the Electronic Journal of Sustainable Development, Sherwood Idso, president of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, Madhav Khandekarhas, PhD, Editorial Board Member of natural hazards, AR4 Climate Assessment, Anthony Lupo, PhD, Soil, Environmental and Atmospheric Sciences at Mizzou - Columbia, Willie Soon, PhD, Mitch Taylor, Geography @ Lakehead Univ., "Climate Change Reconsidered: 2011 Interim Report," NIPCC Rport http://nipccreport.org/reports/2011/pdf/2011NIPCCinterimreport.pdf) Some scientists believe aerosols could have a warming effect. Kiendler-Scharr et al. (2009) ―present evidence from simulation experiments conducted in a plant chamber that isoprene can significantly inhibit new particle formation.‖ The significance of this finding derives from the fact that ―the most abundant volatile organic compounds emitted by terrestrial vegetation are isoprene and its derivatives, such as monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes,‖ and the fact, as described in the ―This Issue‖ abstract section of the Nature issue in which the paper appeared (p. 311), that ―these compounds are involved in the formation of organic aerosols [the ‗new particles‘ mentioned by them], which act as ‗seeds‘ for cloud formation and hence as cooling agents via an effect on radiative forcing.‖ Ziemann (2009), in a ―News & Views‖ article that discusses the Kiendler-Scharr et al. paper, writes that ―clouds formed at higher CCN [cloud condensation nuclei] concentrations have more and smaller drops than those formed at lower concentrations, and so reflect more sunlight and are longer-lived—effects that, at the global scale, enhance the planetary cooling that counteracts some of the warming caused by greenhouse gases.‖ Thus, if vegetative isoprene emissions were to increase, driven directly by rising temperatures and/or indirectly by warming-induced changes in the species composition of boreal forests (as further suggested by Ziemann), the resulting decrease in CCN concentrations ―could lead to increased global-warming trends,‖ as suggested by Kiendler-Scharr in a ―Making the Paper‖ article in the same issue of Nature (p. 313). 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