The United States federal government should cease its surveillance of foreign diplomats in the United States and at United States embassies



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***germany rels

uniqueness – at: snapshot

Future cases trigger the impact


Spiegel 14 – German news thing (7/14/14, “Germany Prepares Further Spying Clampdown,” Lexis)//twemchen

The German government is still hesitating before putting the screws on Washington. But at this point no one would bet that further cases will not turn up. "The Americans are furnishing their opponents with free arguments," says a government official.

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NSA surveillance from Berlin Embassy decks German relations – insider statements prove


Speigel 13 – European news Agency (“Embassy Espionage: The NSA's Secret Spy Hub in Berlin,”, SPIEGEL International, 10-27-13 http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/cover-story-how-nsa-spied-on-merkel-cell-phone-from-berlin-embassy-a-930205.html) //AD

According to SPIEGEL research, United States intelligence agencies have not only targeted Chancellor Angela Merkel's cellphone, but they have also used the American Embassy in Berlin as a listening station. The revelations now pose a serious threat to German-American relations. It's a prime site, a diplomat's dream. Is there any better location for an embassy than Berlin's Pariser Platz? It's just a few paces from here to the Reichstag. When the American ambassador steps out the door, he looks directly onto the Brandenburg Gate. When the United States moved into the massive embassy building in 2008, it threw a huge party. Over 4,500 guests were invited. Former President George H. W. Bush cut the red-white-and-blue ribbon. Chancellor Angela Merkel offered warm words for the occasion. Since then, when the US ambassador receives high-ranking visitors, they often take a stroll out to the roof terrace, which offers a breathtaking view of the Reichstag and Tiergarten park. Even the Chancellery can be glimpsed. This is the political heart of the republic, where billion-euro budgets are negotiated, laws are formulated and soldiers are sent to war. It's an ideal location for diplomats -- and for spies. Research by SPIEGEL reporters in Berlin and Washington, talks with intelligence officials and the evaluation of internal documents of the US' National Security Agency and other information, most of which comes from the archive of former NSA contractor Edward Snowden, lead to the conclusion that the US diplomatic mission in the German capital has not merely been promoting German-American friendship. On the contrary, it is a nest of espionage. From the roof of the embassy, a special unit of the CIA and NSA can apparently monitor a large part of cellphone communication in the government quarter. And there is evidence that agents based at Pariser Platz recently targeted the cellphone that Merkel uses the most. The NSA spying scandal has thus reached a new level, becoming a serious threat to the trans-Atlantic partnership. The mere suspicion that one of Merkel's cellphones was being monitored by the NSA has led in the past week to serious tensions between Berlin and Washington. Hardly anything is as sensitive a subject to Merkel as the surveillance of her cellphone. It is her instrument of power. She uses it not only to lead her party, the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), but also to conduct a large portion of government business. Merkel uses the device so frequently that there was even debate earlier this year over whether her text-messaging activity should be archived as part of executive action. 'That's Just Not Done' Merkel has often said -- half in earnest, half in jest -- that she operates under the assumption that her phone calls are being monitored. But she apparently had in mind countries like China and Russia, where data protection is not taken very seriously, and not Germany's friends in Washington. Last Wednesday Merkel placed a strongly worded phone call to US President Barack Obama. Sixty-two percent of Germans approve of her harsh reaction, according to a survey by polling institute YouGov. A quarter think it was too mild. In a gesture of displeasure usually reserved for rogue states, German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle summoned the new US ambassador, John Emerson, for a meeting at the Foreign Ministry. The NSA affair has shaken the certainties of German politics. Even Merkel's CDU, long a loyal friend of Washington, is now openly questioning the trans-Atlantic free trade agreement. At the Chancellery it's now being said that if the US government doesn't take greater pains to clarify the situation, certain conclusions will be drawn and talks over the agreement could potentially be put on hold. "Spying between friends, that's just not done," said Merkel on Thursday at a European Union summit in Brussels. "Now trust has to be rebuilt." But until recently it sounded as if the government had faith in its ally's intelligence agencies. In mid-August Merkel's chief of staff, Ronald Pofalla, offhandedly described the NSA scandal as over. German authorities offered none of their own findings -- just a dry statement from the NSA leadership saying the agency adhered to all agreements between the countries. Now it is not just Pofalla who stands disgraced, but Merkel as well. She looks like a head of government who only stands up to Obama when she herself is a target of the US intelligence services. The German website Der Postillon published a satirical version last Thursday of the statement given by Merkel's spokesman, Steffen Seibert: "The chancellor considers it a slap in the face that she has most likely been monitored over the years just like some mangy resident of Germany." Merkel has nothing to fear domestically from the recent turn of affairs. The election is over, the conservatives and the center-left Social Democrats are already in official negotiations toward forming a new government. No one wants to poison the atmosphere with mutual accusation. Nevertheless, Merkel must now answer the question of how much she is willing to tolerate from her American allies. Posing as Diplomats A "top secret" classified NSA document from the year 2010 shows that a unit known as the "Special Collection Service" (SCS) is operational in Berlin, among other locations. It is an elite corps run in concert by the US intelligence agencies NSA and CIA. The secret list reveals that its agents are active worldwide in around 80 locations, 19 of which are in Europe -- cities such as Paris, Madrid, Rome, Prague and Geneva. The SCS maintains two bases in Germany, one in Berlin and another in Frankfurt. That alone is unusual. But in addition, both German bases are equipped at the highest level and staffed with active personnel. The SCS teams predominantly work undercover in shielded areas of the American Embassy and Consulate, where they are officially accredited as diplomats and as such enjoy special privileges. Under diplomatic protection, they are able to look and listen unhindered. They just can't get caught. Wiretapping from an embassy is illegal in nearly every country. But that is precisely the task of the SCS, as is evidenced by another secret document. According to the document, the SCS operates its own sophisticated listening devices with which they can intercept virtually every popular method of communication: cellular signals, wireless networks and satellite communication. The necessary equipment is usually installed on the upper floors of the embassy buildings or on rooftops where the technology is covered with screens or Potemkin-like structures that protect it from prying eyes. That is apparently the case in Berlin, as well. SPIEGEL asked British investigative journalist Duncan Campbell to appraise the setup at the embassy. In 1976, Campbell uncovered the existence of the British intelligence service GCHQ. In his so-called "Echelon Report" in 1999, he described for the European Parliament the existence of the global surveillance network of the same name. Campbell refers to window-like indentations on the roof of the US Embassy. They are not glazed but rather veneered with "dielectric" material and are painted to blend into the surrounding masonry. This material is permeable even by weak radio signals. The interception technology is located behind these radio-transparent screens, says Campbell. The offices of SCS agents would most likely be located in the same windowless attic.

NSA surveillance damages US German relations


Oltermann 13 (Philip is an editor on the Guardian's comment desk, and the author of Keeping Up With the Germans: A History of Anglo-German Encounters, 10/31,”Our man in Berlin called in over surveillance allegations: Ambassador is called in over snooping claim”,http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/05/germany-summons-uk-ambassador-spy-claims-berlin)//cc

The British ambassador in Berlin was yesterday called in for a meeting at the German foreign ministry to explain allegations that Britain had been using its embassy to carry out covert electronic surveillance on Angela Merkel's government. The meeting marked the latest fallout from the revelations of US and British espionage that were leaked by the former National Security Agency contractor, Edward Snowden. It followed a report in the Independent about a covert listening post at the British embassy on Wilhelmstrasse, which the paper claimed to be based in part on the Snowden files. If the report is confirmed, it may worsen UK-German relations, already strained by a growing German sense that it has been marginalised by a global electronic espionage network led by the US and UK and confined to English-speaking states. In a statement, the German foreign office said the head of its Europe division "had asked for a statement in response to current reports in the British media and pointed out that intercepting communication from within diplomatic buildings represented a violation of international law". A German official said: "We don't know anything about the report in the paper so the head of our Europe department was asking the ambassador about it. It is not an accusation. It is more of a clarification. We needed to know more." In London, the Foreign Office confirmed the ambassador, Simon McDonald, had a meeting with a senior official at the foreign ministry in Berlin "at his invitation", but offered no further comment. The Independent reported that Britain had established a "spy nest" in the German capital. It described what it called "a potential eavesdropping base" on the embassy roof inside "a white, cylindrical tent-like structure" which had been there since the building was erected in 2000. The paper said it bore a resemblance to devices used to intercept East German and Soviet communications in the cold war. The paper said that it had seen documents showing a small number of intelligence personnel operated in the embassy under diplomatic cover, their true mission apparently unknown to other staff. Bernd Riexinger, co-chairman of the leftwing Die Linke party, said that if the allegations proved true, his party would call for an EU summit to discuss possible financial sanctions against Britain. "So far, Angela Merkel and her ministers have done their best to play down the allegations of surveillance through the NSA and GCHQ," he said. "But we've reached the stage where diplomatic ties with those countries are being severely strained. If industrial espionage has taken place, there need to be consequences." Last week the German magazine, Der Spiegel revealed that the US embassy in Berlin had a structure on its roof that was used by an NSA unit to monitor mobile phone conversations of German officials, including Merkel, in nearby buildings. The report, also based on Snowden documents, led to a strongly-worded phone call from Merkel to Barack Obama, and the summoning of the US ambassador to Berlin. British and German officials last night stressed that the response to the British report was milder - an "invitation" rather than a summons for McDonald. German officials pointed out that it was illegal to use embassy premises to wiretap a host government, and the new report has deepened Berlin's sense of exclusion from the tight eavesdropping alliance known as Five Eyes, consisting of the US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. The Snowden files make it clear that membership of the club offered some protection against being spied on by another member. They also show that non-members are considered fair game for extensive surveillance, in the form of bulk monitoring of mass communications, and eavesdropping on the calls and emails of top officials. Electronic eavesdropping also triggered controversy yesterday in New Zealand, where the government narrowly succeeded in passing legislation obliging telecoms firms to give the country's security agencies access to their networks.

Germany enacts counter surveillance measures as relations hit all-time lows


Paterson 14 (Tony is a British journalist broadcaster and author, 2/16, “Merkel proposes European network to beat NSA spying”http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/angela-merkel-proposes-european-network-to-beat-nsa-spying-9132388.html)//cc

Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany has announced plans to set up a European communications network as part of a broad counter-espionage offensive designed to curb mass surveillance conducted by the US National Security Agency and its British counterpart, GCHQ. The move is her government's first tangible response to public and political indignation over NSA and GCHQ spying in Europe, which was exposed last October with revelations that the US had bugged Ms Merkel's mobile phone and that MI6 operated a listening post from the British Embassy in Berlin. Announcing the project in her weekly podcast, Ms Merkel said she envisaged setting up a European communications network which would offer protection from NSA surveillance by side-stepping the current arrangement whereby emails and other internet data automatically pass through the United States. The NSA's German phone and internet surveillance operation is reported to be one of the biggest in the EU. In co-operation with GCHQ it has direct access to undersea cables carrying transatlantic communications between Europe and the US. Ms Merkel said she planned to discuss the project with the French President, François Hollande, when she meets him in Paris on Wednesday. "Above all we'll talk about European providers that offer security to our citizens, so that one shouldn't have to send emails and other information across the Atlantic," she said. "Rather one could build up a communications network inside Europe." French government officials responded by saying Paris intended to "take up" the German initiative. Ms Merkel's proposals appear to be part of a wider German counter-espionage offensive, reported to be under way in several of Germany's intelligence agencies, against NSA and GCHQ surveillance. Der Spiegel magazine said yesterday that it had obtained information about plans by Germany's main domestic intelligence agency, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, for a "massive" increase in counter-espionage measures. The magazine said there were plans to subject both the American and British Embassies in Berlin to surveillance. It said the measures would include obtaining exact details about intelligence agents who were accredited as diplomats, and information about the technology being used within the embassies. Last year information provided by the whistleblower Edward Snowden revealed that US intelligence agents were able to bug Ms Merkel's mobile phone from a listening post on the US Embassy roof. Investigations by The Independent subsequently revealed that GCHQ ran a similar listening post from the roof of the British Embassy in Berlin. Intelligence experts say it is difficult if not impossible to control spying activities conducted from foreign embassies, not least because their diplomatic status means they are protected from the domestic legislation of the host country. Der Spiegel said Germany's military intelligence service, (MAD) was also considering stepping up surveillance of US and British spying activities. It said such a move would mark a significant break with previous counter-espionage practice which had focused on countries such as China, North Korea and Russia. Germany's counter-espionage drive comes after months of repeated and abortive attempts by its officials to reach a friendly "no spy" agreement with the US. Phillip Missfelder, a spokesman for Ms Merkel's government, admitted recently that revelations about NSA spying had brought relations with Washington to their worst level since the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. Der Spiegel claimed that on a single day last year, January 7, the NSA tapped into some 60 million German phone calls. The magazine said that Canada, Australia, Britain and New Zealand were exempt from NSA surveillance but Germany was regarded as a country open to "spy attacks".

germany rels good – ttip

Germany rels are critical to the TTIP


Speigel 13 – European news Agency (“Embassy Espionage: The NSA's Secret Spy Hub in Berlin,”, SPIEGEL International, 10-27-13 http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/cover-story-how-nsa-spied-on-merkel-cell-phone-from-berlin-embassy-a-930205.html)//twemchen

Trade Agreement at Risk? When the news of Merkel's mobile phone being tapped began making the rounds, the BND and the BSI, the federal agency responsible for information security, took over investigation of the matter. There too, officials have been able to do nothing more than ask questions of the Americans when such sensitive issues have come up in recent months. But now German-American relations are threatened with an ice age. Merkel's connection to Obama wasn't particularly good before the spying scandal. The chancellor is said to consider the president overrated -- a politician who talks a lot but does little, and is unreliable to boot. One example, from Berlin's perspective, was the military operation in Libya almost three years ago, which Obama initially rejected. When then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton convinced him to change his mind, he did so without consulting his allies. Berlin saw this as evidence of his fickleness and disregard for their concerns. The chancellor also finds Washington's regular advice on how to solve the euro crisis irritating. She would prefer not to receive instruction from the country that caused the collapse of the global financial system in the first place. Meanwhile, the Americans have been annoyed for years that Germany isn't willing to do more to boost the world economy. Merkel also feels as though she was duped. The Chancellery now plans once again to review the assurances of US intelligence agencies to make sure they are abiding by the law. The chancellor's office is also now considering the possibility that the much-desired trans-Atlantic free trade agreement could fail if the NSA affair isn't properly cleared up. Since the latest revelations came out, some 58 percent of Germans say they support breaking off ongoing talks, while just 28 percent are against it. "We should put the negotiations for a free-trade agreement with the US on ice until the accusations against the NSA have been clarified," says Bavarian Economy Minister Ilse Aigner, a member of the Christian Social Union, the Bavarian sister party to Merkel's Christian Democrats. Outgoing Justice Minister Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger has used the scandal as an excuse to appeal to the conscience of her counterpart in Washington, Attorney General Eric Holder. "The citizens rightly expect that American institutions also adhere to German laws. Unfortunately, there are a number of indications to the contrary," she wrote in a letter to Holder last week. EU Leaders Consider Consequences The American spying tactics weren't far from the minds of leaders at the EU summit in Brussels last Thursday, either. French President Hollande was the first to bring it up at dinner, saying that while he didn't want to demonize the intelligence agencies, the Americans had so blatantly broken the law on millions of counts that he couldn't imagine how things could go on this way. Hollande called for a code of conduct among the intelligence agencies, an idea for which Merkel also showed support. But soon doubts emerged: Wouldn't Europe also have to take a look at its own surveillance practices? What if a German or French Snowden came forward to reveal dirty spy tactics? British Prime Minister David Cameron pointed out how many terror attacks had been prevented because of spying capabilities. Then it was asked whether it has been proven that Obama even knows what his agencies are doing. Suddenly, mutual understanding seemed to waft through the group. That was a bit too rich for Hollande: No, he interjected, spying to such an immense degree, allegedly on more than 70 million phone calls per month in France alone -- that has been undertaken by only one country: the United States. The interruption was effective. After nearly three hours, the EU member states agreed on a statement that can be read as clear disapproval of the Americans. Merkel no longer wants to rely solely on promises. This week Günter Heiss, Chancellor Merkel's intelligence coordinator, will travel to Washington. Heiss wants the Americans finally to promise a contract excluding mutual surveillance. The German side already announced its intention to sign on to this no-spying pact during the summer, but the US government has so far shown little inclination to seriously engage with the topic. This is, of course, also about the chancellor's cellphone. Because despite all the anger, Merkel still didn't want to give up using her old number as of the end of last week. She was using it to make calls and to send text messages. Only for very delicate conversations did she switch to a secure line.

germany rels good – safe harbor

Wrecks the Safe Harbor agreement


Spiegel 14 – German news thing (7/14/14, “Germany Prepares Further Spying Clampdown,” Lexis)//twemchen

Government representatives later called it a "sign of self-confidence," noting: "Now it's their turn." They want the Americans to finally provide some answers, at least to the most pressing questions surrounding the spying scandal, which were posed a year ago and have since been ignored in Washington. If Obama refuses to back down, the German government could take further steps. However, Merkel already imposed narrow limits on herself from the very beginning. She doesn't want to jeopardize intelligence cooperation, because she believes that the risk of attacks in Germany is too great to simply dispense with US intelligence information. But in light of the most recent events, even the most pro-American faction in the government is now increasingly willing to "realign" the intelligence services. What this means, most of all, is that the BFV will probably broaden its focus to include the United States in its counterespionage efforts in the future. In addition, the government is having experts in all government ministries search for weaknesses in communication technology, along with signs of American spying activity. The hunt for additional moles has also begun at the BND. An investigative team will search data systems in all departments for unauthorized access, over a period of several years. If the Americans remain obstinate, Berlin officials are even thinking about suspending or even paring back treaties with the United States. In this context, the so-called Safe Harbor Program could prove to be an effective tool to apply pressure to Washington. The 2000 agreement allows US companies to store and process billions of pieces of data on European citizens, but only if they pledge to abide by European data privacy rules -- with US authorities monitoring compliance. More than 3,000 companies, including giants like Google, Facebook and Microsoft, have already agreed to the rules of the program. "If we suspend this cooperative program, it will be both an economic and political blow to the Americans," says Jan Philipp Albrecht, a Green Party member of the European Parliament. His fellow party member Renate Künast, chair of the Committee on Legal Affairs and Consumer Protection in the Bundestag, says: "Under the Safe Harbor Agreement, our data are not secure when transmitted to the United States, but instead are exposed to uncertainty." The German government is still hesitating before putting the screws on Washington. But at this point no one would bet that further cases will not turn up. "The Americans are furnishing their opponents with free arguments," says a government official.

germany rels good – warming



Rels solve warming


Sivaram and Livingston 6/23 – staff writers at Foreign Affairs (Varun Sivaram and David Livingston, 6/23/15, “Leading From Between,” https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2015-06-23/leading-between)//twemchen

For the last two decades, climate talks, and their top-down multinational approaches, have largely failed to curb rising temperatures. Since then, a number of subnational actors (provinces, cities, businesses, and civil society organizations, among others) have sought to tackle climate change from the bottom up. For example, at a summit in New York last year, various subnational associations pledged to take action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Around 75 mayors from around the world, recognizing that cities account for some 70 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions, signed a Mayors Compact to accelerate ongoing efforts to shrink their carbon footprint. And major civil society organizations and businesses also signed various pledges on a range of initiatives, from expanding energy efficiency to halting deforestation. California is a leader when it comes to electric cars. The futuristic Aptera sports an aerodynamic design and a 100 miles per gallon range, February 13, 2009. These initiatives are promising, but they will not do enough. According to at least one study, the subnational initiatives agreed to at last year’s summit have the potential to reduce emissions by only a fifth of the required reduction needed to keep global warming under two degrees Celsius—a threshold that if exceeded, may trigger fiercer storms and increased droughts. Subnational progress is limited because ground-up climate diplomacy has largely operated on an independent track from international diplomacy. The risk with these parallel approaches is that ground-up goals will not be incorporated into top-down ones, which risks marginalizing their efficacy. Unlocking the potential of subnational climate action will require integration of subnational and international initiatives. And the two entities that can bridge that gap are California and Germany—two of the world’s pioneers when it comes to climate policies. Both are on track to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent below 1990 levels by the year 2050, the level of reduction that the world must achieve in order to stop temperatures from rising another two degrees Celsius. California Governor Jerry Brown recently pledged to reach 50 percent renewable power in the state by 2030, from just over 20 percent today; German Chancellor Angela Merkel recently reaffirmed her vision for Germany to meet all of its power needs with renewable energy by 2050 (the country is around the 30 percent mark today). By contrast, OECD nations on average use only 10 percent renewable energy. (All examples exclude large hydropower.) Because California and Germany have both subnational and national characteristics, they enjoy broad respect from cities, provinces, and nations alike. In this way, they can “lead from between” and bridge the two levels of diplomacy. Both exert a high level of influence within much larger political contexts—the United States and the European Union, respectively—and exemplify how subnational action can elevate national ambition. Both are also among the top ten global economies, able to move markets with policy. Already, California’s aggressive vehicle fuel economy standards have been adopted at the national level, and it single-handedly pushed automakers to produce electric and hydrogen-powered vehicles through its zero emission vehicle regulations. For its part, Germany pushed the European Union to pledge to emission reductions of 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. It can also claim most of the credit for kickstarting the global solar panel industry through its Feed-in Tariff incentive program. Governments that once criticized California and Germany for far-fetched policies now look to them for tactical guidance. Unlocking the potential of subnational climate action will require integration of subnational and international initiatives. And the two entities that can bridge that gap are California and Germany—two of the world’s pioneers when it comes to climate policies. REUTERSThe Lieberose solar farm is Germany's largest solar power plant and the second largest in the world, August 14, 2009 file photo. The place to push for this approach and merge local and international efforts is at the December UN Climate Conference in Paris. This conference is already poised to make progress, having evolved from the top-down framework of the past to a more bottom-up model in which nations propose their own targets. California and Germany can complete the transformation from a top-down to a bottom-up paradigm by advocating for the inclusion of local action plans in any Paris climate agreement. Furthermore, they should push for a framework that encourages subnational actors to work constructively with national governments to scale up local innovations to meet and elevate national emission reduction goals. Ideally, the Paris agreement will also set up a transparent system to monitor and verify national progress toward climate action pledges. California and Germany should encourage the adoption of the Paris mandates at the most local level. They can start by appealing to an already enthusiastic pilot group: a group of 12 subnational provinces and states that California and the German state of Baden-Württemberg led, in May, to sign an agreement pledging to cut emissions by at least 80 percent below the 1990 level by 2050. The provinces and cities that seek to transform their local energy systems can also benefit from California and Germany’s expertise. Both could offer various consulting services to enable local policymakers and energy professionals to share best practices in, for example, the market design and technical integration of renewable energy. Germany could share the success and failures of its experiment with the “renewables club,” now called the International Renewables Energy Agency, which comprises 140 nations that share data and best practices on sustainable energy initaitives. California and Germany should carve out a similar space for local technical cooperation. Facilitating the exchange of expertise will be inexpensive compared with the cost of developing that expertise in the first place. And in California and Germany, energy businesses will likely find this exchange a lucrative one since it provides an opportunity to connect with new markets. The yawning gap between California and Germany’s progress and the lack thereof around the world challenges the idea that climate change must be addressed with independent multinational and subnational approaches. After decades of pioneering action on climate change, it is time these two climate leaders bring the rest of the world up to speed.

germany rels good – warming – at: co2 ag



CO2 fertilization is only true for idealized circumstances


Lewis et. al. 14 (Dr Simon Lewis, Reader in Global Change Science at University College London. Prof Richard Betts, Head of Climate Impacts Research at the Met Office and Chair in Climate Impacts at the University of Exeter. Prof Peter Cox, Professor of Climate System Dynamics at the University of Exeter. Dr Chris Huntingford, Climate Modeller at the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology. “expert reaction to new study on plants and CO2”. 13 October 2014. Science Media Center. http://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-new-study-on-plants-and-co2)//JuneC//

A study published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences has suggested that differences in carbon dioxide concentrations inside plants may account for errors in estimations of their capacity for carbon storage. Dr Simon Lewis, Reader in Global Change Science at University College London, said: “Earth’s vegetation currently removes about one quarter of all human emissions of carbon dioxide. This new analysis suggests that some modelling studies slightly underestimated the size of this major free subsidy from nature over the past 100 years. “But what does this mean for the future? This is hard to tell from the new study as it does not model the future. Looking forward 100 years the amount of uptake of carbon dioxide by the world’s vegetation is uncertain. Many scientists think climate models are too optimistic about how much carbon dioxide forests can take up. Few think trees will grow ever-bigger as they are fertilized by ever-higher amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Something else, such as nutrients, water or extremely high temperatures may well limit growth in the future. This study, considering only one aspect of photosynthesis shows, correctly in my view, that photosynthesis is highly responsive to carbon dioxide, but this is far from the only factor amongst many that will impact the forests of the 21st century and how much carbon they store. “The level and speed of greenhouse gas emissions cuts needed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change are not altered by this new study.” Prof Richard Betts, Head of Climate Impacts Research at the Met Office and Chair in Climate Impacts at the University of Exeter, said: “This is a very interesting paper adding to our understanding of plant physiology. The authors remark on the potential importance of their results for global carbon cycle modelling, and this is indeed relevant, but as a priority for improving carbon cycle modelling there are other processes which current models treat either very simplistically or not at all. Fire disturbance, for example, is not included in some of the models examined here – its inclusion could be more important than any improvements in modelling CO2 fertilization, as it seems likely to be an important feedback on climate change. Changes in global soil respiration at the global scale are also poorly understood. “So while this is an interesting and useful contribution, it should be put into context with the bigger picture – disturbance mechanisms as well as physiological processes are important.” Prof Peter Cox, Professor of Climate System Dynamics at the University of Exeter, said: “We are usually told that CO2-fertilization is over-estimated in climate models, mainly because we neglect the limitations nutrients can have on plant growth. So this paper goes against that flow by suggesting that the models might actually under-estimate the effect of CO2 on plant growth. However, results from Free-Air CO2 Enrichment Experiments (FACE) still tend to support the prevailing view that models most likely over-estimate CO2 fertilization on the century timescale. “In any case, the effect discussed in this paper is relatively small compared to the overall uncertainties in the future land carbon sink. Avoiding 2 degrees of global warming is a huge challenge for humanity even if this effect is taken into account.” Dr Chris Huntingford, Climate Modeller at the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, said: “Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide can be compared to how much is produced by burning fossil fuels. Approximately 50% of the CO2 we put into the atmosphere is drawn down into the land or oceans, partly offsetting global warming. To understand how much the planet will warm over the next decades depends on how much the earth continues to pull CO2 from the atmosphere. This new paper suggests plants are slightly better at capturing CO2 than we thought. “This new research implies it will be slightly easier to fulfil the target of keeping global warming below two degrees – but with a big emphasis on ‘slightly’. Overall, the cuts in CO2 emissions over the next few decades will still have to be very large if we want to keep warming below 2 degrees.”


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