Tpp will pass during the lame duck

AT: Economy Impact

TPP doesn’t solve growth or trade---trade experts vote aff

For a start, I consulted with Joseph A. Massey, a former U.S. trade negotiator with China and Japan who has served as an advisor to Republicans and Democrats.¶ Massey made three points.¶ First, he said, the TPP's impact has probably been oversold. "It has benefits for U.S. export industries, but I think they're modest," he said. "It's clearly good for the entertainment and tech sectors. But it's not revolutionary."¶ Second, he said, the biggest threat to jobs in the United States isn't free-trade agreements; it's domestic policy. "We've neglected our own manufacturing sector," he said. "Germany is a party to trade agreements too, but they've done a much better job at maintaining a skilled blue-collar workforce. We need more incentives for companies to invest here, employ American workers and invest in their training."¶ Third, he noted, the TPP isn't only about trade. It's also about economic reform, higher labor standards and environmental protection in developing countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia. And it's a way to knit countries on the Pacific Rim into a trading system that the United States helped design instead of one run by Asia's growing power, China.¶ Obama hasn't been subtle about pushing that geopolitical argument. "If we don't pass this agreement — if America doesn't write those rules — then countries like China will," he said last week.¶ To foreign policy strategists, that's a compelling pitch. To American workers, it's not.¶ So are we better off with or without the TPP? If Congress ratifies it, that won't turbocharge the U.S. economy. If Congress blocks the deal, that won't stop globalization. And like any trade agreement, it creates winners and losers.¶ One political lesson is clear: The bipartisan consensus that enabled Bill Clinton and George W. Bush to pass trade agreements has broken down, mostly because, to many Americans, their costs have been clearer than their benefits.

TPP will hurt Job growth and lead to econ decline

Tencer 16-[Daniel Tencer, 1-20-2016, "TPP Will Cost Canada 58,000 Jobs, Increase Inequality: Study," Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/01/20/tpp-economic-impact-canada-us_n_9029892.html]

The Trans-Pacific Partnership meant to create the world’s largest free trade area will cost Canada 58,000 jobs and increase income inequality, says a new U.S. study. Perhaps more surprisingly, the study found that the two largest economies in the TPP — the U.S. and Japan — would actually shrink as a result of the trade deal, and that the deal would result in fewer jobs overall in all the participating countries. Ten years after the TPP were to come into force, Canada’s economy would be 0.28 per cent larger than it would have been without it, the study from Tufts University, near Boston, found. x That amounts to an additional $5 billion in economic activity, on an economy worth some $1.8 trillion today. That boost is only slightly more than the $4.3-billion subsidythe Harper government proposed for the dairy industry, to absorb the shock of an open dairy market. The U.S. economy would be about 0.54 per cent smaller with the TPP, or about US$100 billion smaller. The country would see a net loss of 448,000 jobs due to the agreement. The authors — researchers at Tufts' Global Development and Environment Institute — say that’s because creating the massive free trade area that would encompass 40 per cent of the world economy would force companies to be more competitive and efficient, pushing them to cut jobs. They also say that participating countries’ economies would shift to focus more on producing goods for export rather than for domestic consumption, and export-oriented industries create fewer jobs, overall. In all, the study estimates that the 12 countries involved in the proposed free trade deal would lose a net total of 771,000 jobs in the 10 years after the deal comes into force.

AT: Trade Impact

TPP not key to global trade – excludes major players

Edwards 14 (Len, Analyst @ Gowling Lafleur Henderson LLP, "Trade mega-deals and the WTO," 10/22/14http://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=96df3a91-9383-4f20-a638-42dc9b66a56e)

The first is that the TPP and TTIP deals are by no means assured. Although the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations have made significant progress, they have missed deadline after deadline. The addition in mid-2013 of Japan has further complicated matters. The TPP is now essentially the framework for a huge bilateral deal between the 1st and 3rd largest global economies. And in late September, the latest USA/Japan talks ended with a Japanese walkout. Every passing day diminishes the chances of the TPP being concluded before presidential election politics take over the USA agenda at the end of 2015. Even if there were a breakthrough between Japan and the USA in the coming months, the lack of congressional “fast track” authority (which gives the Administration authority to negotiate a deal subject to a single yes/no vote by Congress) and the uncertainties of American domestic politics together constitute a serious hurdle. Why would America’s trading partners in the TPP make important final concessions without knowing that Congress will not take the deal apart clause by clause and impose additional demands as the price of its approval? Meanwhile the USA/EU negotiations are just getting underway. The size and complexity of this negotiation are enormous. If you add America’s political situation to Europe’s preoccupations with its flagging economy, the arrival of a new Commission leadership in Brussels, and the internal power jockeying among the Commission, member states and the European Parliament, it’s hard not to imagine that this “mega-deal” could be “mega-years” in the making. And Russian aggressiveness in Eastern Europe has become a major political/security distraction. Second, even if these strong head winds do not stall or blow off course the TPP and TTIP negotiations in the medium term (the TTIP would sit alongside the now complete Canada-Europe Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement or CETA), these “mega-deals” are still not likely to become game changers. While the TPP and TTIP together include 40 countries representing about 60% of the global economy, they still leave a significant 40% of world economic activity and 119 members of the WTO on sidelines. In the days when the “Quad” (USA, Europe, Japan and Canada) dominated world trade and largely determined the course of multilateral trade negotiations, these two proposed mega-deals could have been decisive in determining the future direction of the trading system. But as we have seen in the Doha Round, the rise of new economic players, the shift in global economic power, and a feistier developing world generally, have forever changed this dynamic. In this respect, neither the TPP nor the TTIP include Brazil, India or most importantly China. Mexico’s presence at the TPP table is the one exception to the inclusion of a major emerging market. Measured in nominal GDP, Brazil, India and China are predicted to be the world’s 4th, 3rd and largest economies respectively by mid-century, with China achieving number 1 status before 2030. By 2050, today’s emerging economies generally are expected to account for up to 70% of global trade. Unless these three emerging economies in particular are engaged by the USA, Europe, Japan and Canada in these or other new mega-arrangements, it is very doubtful that the TPP and TTIP alone will have the critical weight to transform the international trading system’s rules and set the new standard for global trade governance. They will have an impact, certainly, but it will not be decisive.

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