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UQ – Economic Recovery Now
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- UQ – Economic Recovery Now
- UQ – No Double-Dip Now
- Link – Generic – Immigration Kills Economy
UQ – Economic Recovery NowEconomy high – job growth, investor confidence Voice of America 7/25 (Michael Bowman, 7/25/10, http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/US-Treasury-Secretary-Sees-Continued-Economic-Growth-99195514.html)BHB The Obama administration says the U.S. economy continues to recover from a deep recession and is less vulnerable to any future financial crisis. Nearly a full year of economic expansion has yet to bring about significant reductions in America's stubbornly-high unemployment rate or the record-high federal deficit. Nevertheless, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner says the U.S. economy is on the right track after the worst recession of the post-World War II era. "You are seeing a recovery," he said. "You are seeing private investment expand again and job growth starting to come back. That is very encouraging." Geithner was speaking on NBC's Meet The Press program. He acknowledged the economic recovery has been slow to gain momentum, but said the moderate pace is to be expected after a severe downturn made worse by a catastrophic financial crisis. "This was a recession caused by a set of policies that left us with a $1.3-trillion deficit when the president came into office, and an economy that was falling off the cliff," he said. "Millions of Americans had already lost their jobs. The recession was a year old at that point. And given that Americans had been borrowing too much and we had a huge growth in risk-taking and leverage in the financial system, what you would expect is a more moderate-paced recovery than is typical." Some economists worry about the possibility of a so-called "double-dip" recession, where the economy appears to be recovering, then stalls and plunges back into negative growth. Geithner said he sees no evidence that another downturn is imminent. UQ – Economic Recovery NowRisk of recovery high Froomkin 2010 Dan, Huffington Post Online, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/01/23/7-things-about-the-econom_n_433688.html Clinton-era Labor Secretary Robert Reich recently speculated about what lies ahead for the economy. He wrote he see only a 10 percent chance of a double dip recession (vs. a 30 percent chance of a strong or solid recovery; a 40 percent chance of a jobless recovery; and a 20 percent chance of a stalled recovery). But his description of that particular scenario was particularly vivid: UQ – No Double-Dip NowNo double dip its super rare at worst just a slow down Washington Post 7/28 (Neil Irwin, 7/28/10, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/28/AR2010072806049.html?hpid=topnews) BHB True double-dip recessions -- a second extended contraction in economic activity -- are rare, historically. But economic activity wouldn't need to contract for joblessness to remain high. The economy's natural growth rate, due to population growth and technological improvements, is 2.5 to 3 percent a year. So any extended period of growth much below that, say 1 to 2 percent, would drive unemployment up. And while many economists now argue that the odds of a dip back into recession have increased in the past couple of months, fewer say it's probable. "It seems extremely unlikely to me that we would have a true double dip," said Joseph E. Gagnon, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "But a period of sub-par growth would be not at all surprising and may even be the most likely possibility." **Generic Links** Link – Generic – Immigration Kills EconomyImmigration kills the economy – low wages, unemployment, investor confidence Malanga 6 (Steven - Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute, City Journal, Summer 2006, http://www.city-journal.org/html/16_3_immigrants_economy.html)BHB Although open-borders advocates say that these workers are simply taking jobs Americans don’t want, studies show that the immigrants drive down wages of native-born workers and squeeze them out of certain industries. Harvard economists George Borjas and Lawrence Katz, for instance, estimate that low-wage immigration cuts the wages for the average native-born high school dropout by some 8 percent, or more than $1,200 a year. Other economists find that the new workers also push down wages significantly for immigrants already here and native-born Hispanics. Consequently, as the waves of immigration continue, the sheer number of those competing for low-skilled service jobs makes economic progress difficult. A study of the impact of immigration on New York City’s restaurant business, for instance, found that 60 percent of immigrant workers do not receive regular raises, while 70 percent had never been promoted. One Mexican dishwasher aptly captured the downward pressure that all these arriving workers put on wages by telling the study’s authors about his frustrating search for a 50-cent raise after working for $6.50 an hour: “I visited a few restaurants asking for $7 an hour, but they only offered me $5.50 or $6,” he said. “I had to beg [for a job].” Similarly, immigration is also pushing some native-born workers out of jobs, as Kenyon College economists showed in the California nail-salon workforce. Over a 16-year period starting in the late 1980s, some 35,600 mostly Vietnamese immigrant women flooded into the industry, a mass migration that equaled the total number of jobs in the industry before the immigrants arrived. Though the new workers created a labor surplus that led to lower prices, new services, and somewhat more demand, the economists estimate that as a result, 10,000 native-born workers either left the industry or never bothered entering it. In many American industries, waves of low-wage workers have also retarded investments that might lead to modernization and efficiency. Farming, which employs a million immigrant laborers in California alone, is the prime case in point. Faced with a labor shortage in the early 1960s, when President Kennedy ended a 22-year-old guest-worker program that allowed 45,000 Mexican farmhands to cross over the border and harvest 2.2 million tons of California tomatoes for processed foods, farmers complained but swiftly automated, adopting a mechanical tomato-picking technology created more than a decade earlier. Today, just 5,000 better-paid workers—one-ninth the original workforce—harvest 12 million tons of tomatoes using the machines. Download 0.75 Mb. Share with your friends:
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