Upper Columbia Spring Chinook Salmon, Steelhead, and Bull Trout Recovery



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4.5Recovery Timeframe


The time required to achieve reclassification (for spring Chinook and steelhead) and recovery of spring Chinook, steelhead, and bull trout in the Upper Columbia Basin depends on the species status, factors currently affecting their viability, implementation and effectiveness of recovery actions, and responses to actions. A large amount of work within all sectors (i.e., Hs) will be needed to recover the ESU, the DPS, and their populations. In addition, long periods of time may be needed before some habitat actions result in measurable effects on species viability parameters. What follows are best estimates of the time required to meet recovery if the actions identified within this plan are implemented.

4.5.1Spring Chinook

Reclassification


Based on the current status of spring Chinook (i.e., increasing abundance and productivity), reclassification could occur within 5-15 years.86

Recovery


If the actions identified in this plan are implemented and out-of-ESU conditions continue to improve, recovery of Upper Columbia spring Chinook could occur within 10-30 years.

4.5.2Steelhead

Recovery


If the actions identified in this plan are implemented and out-of-DPS conditions continue to improve, recovery of Upper Columbia steelhead could occur within 10-30 years.

4.5.3Bull Trout

Recovery


If the actions identified in this plan are implemented, then at least the Upper Columbia component of the Columbia River population could meet recovery criteria within 15-25 years.87

Table 4.8 Mechanisms, factors, and metrics used to assess spatial structure and diversity of spring Chinook and steelhead populations in the Upper Columbia Basin. Table is from ICBTRT (2005a,b)



Goal

Mechanism

Factor

Metrics

A. Allow natural rates and levels of spatially-mediated processes.

1. Maintain natural distribution of spawning aggregates.

a. Number and spatial arrangement of spawning areas.

Number of MSAs, distribution of MSAs, and quantity of habitat outside MSAs.

b. Spatial extent or range of population

Proportion of historical range occupied and presence/absence of spawners in MSAs.

c. Increase or decrease gaps or continuities between spawning aggregates.

Change in occupancy of MSAs that affects connectivity within the population.

B. Maintain natural levels of variation.

1. Maintain natural patterns of phenotypic and genotypic expression.

a. Major life history strategies.

Distribution of major life history expression within a population.

b. Phenotypic variation.

Reduction in variability of traits, shift in mean value of trait, loss of traits.

c. Genetic variation.

Analysis addressing within and between population genetic variations.

2. Maintain natural patterns of gene flow.

a. Spawner composition

(1) Proportion of hatchery origin natural spawners derived from a local (within population) brood stock program using best practices.

(2) Proportion of hatchery origin natural spawners derived from a within MPG brood stock program, or within population (not best practices) program.

(3) Proportion of natural spawners that are unnatural out-of-MPG strays.

(4) Proportion of natural spawners that are unnatural out-of-ESU and -DPS strays.

3. Maintain occupancy in a natural variety of available habitat types.

a. Distribution of population across habitat types.

Change in occupancy across ecoregion types.

4. Maintain integrity of natural systems.

a. Selective change in natural processes or impacts.

Ongoing anthropogenic activities inducing selective mortality or habitat change within or out of population boundary


Entiat

Wenatchee and Methow



Figure 4.31 Viability curves for Upper Columbia spring Chinook. The top figure represents the Wenatchee and Methow Entiat populations and the bottom figure represents the Entiat population.


Entiat and Okanogan

Wenatchee and Methow



Figure 4.32 Viability curves for Upper Columbia steelhead. The top figure represents the Entiat and Okanogan populations and the bottom figure represents the Wenatchee and Methow populations.




Figure 4.33 Distribution of major and minor spawning areas of spring Chinook in the Wenatchee Subbasin



Figure 4.34 Distribution of major and minor spawning areas of spring Chinook in the Entiat Subbasin



Figure 4.35 Distribution of major and minor spawning areas of spring Chinook in the Methow Subbasin



Figure 4.36 Distribution of major and minor spawning areas of steelhead in the Wenatchee Subbasin



Figure 4.37 Distribution of major and minor spawning areas of steelhead in the Entiat Subbasin



Figure 4.38 Distribution of major and minor spawning areas of steelhead in the Methow Subbasin



Figure 4.39 Distribution of major and minor spawning areas of steelhead in the Okanogan Subbasin


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