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Modernization leads to miscalc and war
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Modernization leads to miscalc and warLewis 9 [Jeffrey. Director of the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative at the New America Foundation. “Chinese Nuclear Posture and Force Modernization.” Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 16, No. 2, July 2009]-DD The ongoing modernization has profound implications for strategic stability. Over the past few decades, scholars have broadened conceptions of strategic stability from simple rational actor models that emphasize the offense-defense balance to encompass concerns about how leaders and organizations act under times of great stress. The large alert forces deployed by the United States and the Soviet Union precluded any rational decision to initiate a nuclear war but raised the prospect of accidents, miscalculation, or unauthorized use of nuclear weapons. On one hand, the failure of Chinese and U.S. political leaders to think through the interaction of new strategic capabilities*for example, mobile ballistic missiles and antisatellite capabilities in China; missile defenses and conventional strike options in the United States*raises the prospect of unintended consequences and perverse interactions in the event of a serious crisis over the status of Taiwan. Mil mod – artificial intelligenceChina uses relations as cover for military modernization through dual use techHoar 10 [William P. Hoar, New American, “China Embraces U.S. Debt and Technology,” September 28, 2010, http://www.thenewamerican.com/index.php/reviews/903-correction-please/4704-china-embraces-us-debt-and-technology]-DD China does not want to develop “military ties” with Washington and “reset a positive course” because Beijing loves “peace” and has warm fuzzy feelings for Americans and hopes to enhance the influence of the United States. Anyone who really thinks that is naïve beyond help; many of the policymakers who pretend this to be the case are dangerously duplicitous. Communist China is on a long march for more power. For decades, as a few stalwarts in the U.S. Congress used to point out, the Communist Chinese have been increasingly focused on acquiring U.S. and foreign technology and equipment — in particular dual-use technologies that can be integrated into the People’s Republic of China’s military and industrial bases. What isn’t bought or otherwise transferred is often stolen. Moreover, as the Cox Committee in the U.S. House noted as long ago as 1999, “The PRC has also purchased weapons systems or their components from Israel, France, Britain, and the United States, including air-to-air missiles, air-refueling technology, Global Positioning System (GPS) technology, helicopter parts, and assorted avionics.” Download 357.18 Kb. Share with your friends:
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