World meteorological organization

Appendix A (References from China)

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Appendix A (References from China)

Ren F. M., D. L. Cui, Z. Q. Gong, et al. An objective identification technique for regional extreme events. J. Climate, 2012, 25, 7015-7027.

Ren Guoyu, Feng Guolin , Yan Zhongwei. Progresses in observation studies of climate extremes and changes in mainland China. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 2010, 15 (4) : 337-353.

Yang Ping, Feng Guolin, Liu Weidong et al. Cluster Extreme Events Based on Point Process Theory, Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2010a，21 (3), 352-359.

Yang Ping, Hou Wei, Feng Guolin. A study of the characteristics of the cluster extreme events in China. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2010b, 15 (4), 365-370.

Qian, W., X. Shan, and Y. Zhu, Ranking regional drought events in china for 1960–2009. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2011, 28, 310–321.

Ding, T., and W. Qian, Geographical patterns and temporal variations of regional dry and wet heatwave events in China during 1960-2008. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2011, 28, 322–337.

Gong Zhiqiang, Wang Xiaojuan, Cui Donglin et al. The identification and changing characteristics of regional low temperature extreme events. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2012，23 (2),195-204

Kuang X. Y., Z. Y. Wang, Y. C. Zhang, et al. Identification and statistical characteristics of the cluster high temperature events during last fifty years. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 57(6): 1782-1791.

Appendix B (References from Czech Republic, related with extreme events)

2005

Chromá, K., Brázdil, R., Tolasz, R., 2005. Spatio-Temporal Variability of Hailstorms for Moravia and Silesia in the Summer Half-Year of the Period 1961 – 2000. Meteorologický časopis – Meteorological Journal, Vol 8, No. 2, pp. 65 – 74.

2006

Šálek, M., Březková, L., Novák, P., 2006. The use of radar in hydrological modelling in Czech Republic – case studies of flash floods. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. Vol. 6, No. 6, pp. 229-236.

2007

Březková, L., Šálek, M., Soukalová, E., Starý, M., 2007. Predictability of flood events in view of current meteorology and hydrology in the conditions of Czech Republic. Soil and Warter Research, Vol. 2, pp. 156-168. ISSN 1801-5395.

Květoň, V., Žák, M., 2007. Extreme precipitation events in the Czech Republic in the context of climate change. Advances in Geosciences, Vol. 14, p. 1-5. ISSN 1680-7340.

Novák, P., 2007. The Czech Hydrometeorological Institute’s Severe Storm Nowcasting System. Atmospheric Research, Vol. 83, pp. 450-457.

Řezníčková, L., Brázdil, R., Tolasz, R., 2007. Meteorological singularities in the Czech Republic in the period 1961-2002. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol. 88, no. 3-4, pp. 179-192.

Trnka, M., Hlavinka, P., Dubrovský, M., Žalud, Z., Možný, M., 2007. Agricultural drought and spring barley yields in the Czech Republic, Plant, Soil and Environment, Vol. 53, pp. 306-316.

2008

Kyselý, J., Kříž, B., 2008. Decreased impacts of the 2003 heat waves on mortality in the Czech Republic: an improved response? International Journal of Biometeorology. Vol. 52, s. 733–745.

Pokladníková, H., Rožnovský, J., Středa, T., 2008. Evaluation of the monthly air temperature extremity for the 1961-2007 period. Contributions to Geophysics and Geodesy, Vol. 38, No. 4, pp. 391-403. IISN 1335-2806.

2009

Hlavinka, P., Trnka, M., Semerádová, D., Dubrovský, M., Žalud, Z., Možný, M., 2009. Effect of drought on yield variability of key crops in the Czech Republic. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. Vol. 149, No. 3-4, pp. 431-442.

Holub, K., Rušajová, J., Sandev, M., 2009. A comparison of the features of windstorms Kyrill and Emma based on seismological and meteorological observations. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol. 18, No. 6, pp. 607-614.

2010

Fiala, T., Ourda taha, B. M. J., Hladný, J., 2010. Evaluation of low flows in the Czech Republic. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 393, Issues 3-4, pp. 206-2018.

Kron, A., Nestmann, F., Schlüter, I., Daňhelka, J., Krejčí., J., 2010. Operational flood management under large-scale extreme conditions, using the example of the Middle Elbe. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. Vol. 10, pp. 1171-1181. ISSN 1561-8633.

Potop, V., 2010. Temporal variability of daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation in the middle Polabí (Elbeland) lowland region. Scientia Agriculturae Bohemica,

41 (3), s. 140–148. ISSN 1211-3174.

2011

Brázdil, R., Řezníčková, L., Valášek, H., Havlíček, M., Dobrovolný, P., Soukalová, E., Řehánek, T., Skokanová, H., 2011. Flictuation of floods of the River Morava (Czech Republic) in the 1691-2009 period: interactions of natural and anthropogenic factors. Hydrological Sciences Journal. Vol. 56, No. 3, pp. 468-485. ISSN 0262-6667.

Kliment, T., Matoušková, M., Ledvinka, O., Královec, V., 2011. Trend analysis of rainfall-runoff regimes in selected headwater areas of the Czech Republic. Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics. Vol. 59, No. 1, pp. 36-45.

Kyselý, J., Plavcová, E., Davídková, H., Kynčl, J. 2011. Comparison of hot and cold spell effects on cardiovascular mortality in individual population groups in the Czech Republic.

Climate Research. Vol. 49, s. 113–129.

Potop, V., Koudela, M., Možný, M., 2011. The impact of dry, wet and heat episodes on the production of vegetable crops in Polabí (River Basin). Scientia Agriculturae Bohemica,

42 (3), s. 93–101. ISSN 1211-3174.

2012

Kyselý, J., Plavcová, E. 2012. Declining impacts of hot spells on mortality in the Czech Republic, 1986–2009: adaptation to climate change? Climate Change. Vol. 113, s. 437–453.

Možný, M., Trnka, M., Žalud, Z., Hlavinka, P., Nekovář, J., Potop, V., Virág, M., 2012. Use of a soil moisture network for drought monitoring in the Czech Republic. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol. 107, No. 1-2, pp. 99-111. DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0075-z.

Potop, V., Možný, M., Soukup, J., 2012. Drought evaluation at various time scale in the lowland regions and ther impact on vegetable crops in the Czech Republic. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. Vol. 156, pp. 121-133.

2013

Potop, V., Zahradníček, P., Türkott, L., Štěpánek, P., Soukup, J., 2013. Risk occurrences of damaging frosts during the growing season of vegetables in the Elbe River lowland, the Czech Republic. Natural Hazards. DOI 10.1007/s11069-013-0894-5.

zacharov, P., Řezáčová, D., Brožková, R., 2013. Evaluation of the QPF of convective flash flood rainfalls over the Czech Republic in 2009. Atmospheric Research. Vol. 131, pp. 95-107.

2014

Holtanová, E., Valeriánová, A., Crhová, L., Racko, S., 2014. Heat wave of August 2012 in the Czech Republic: comparison of two approaches to assessment of high temperature events. Studia Geophysica and Geodetica. Vol. 59, Issue 1, pp. 159-172.

Potop, V., Boroneat, C., Možný, M., Štěpánek, P., Skalák, P., 2013. Observed spatiotemporal characteristics of drought on various time scales over the Czech Republic. Theor. Appl. Climatol. Vol. 115, No. 4, pp. 563-581. ISSN 0177-798X.

Appendix C (additional drought indices from Kazakhstan)

Indices used in drought monitoring: the Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) and the Shashko moisture index (Md). In order to define the severity of droughts, G.T. Selyaninov and D.I. Shashko used the drought intensity classification system shown in Table 1 and the formulae in Table 2. On assessment, droughts are classified according to three categories of intensity: severe, moderate or absent.

Table 1. Indicators and criteria used for the dekadal monitoring of different drought intensities in integrated drought assessment

Name of drought assessment indicators		Categories of drought intensity
		Severe (class 1)	Moderate (class 2)	Absent (class 3)
HTC	Hydrothermal coefficient	≤0.39	0.40–0.70	0.71–5.0
Md	Shashko moisture index	≤0.19	0.20–0.35	0.36–3.0

Table 2. Formulae for the hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) and moisture index (Md)

Formula for the indices

Key

I Sequential number of the dekad under assessment;

i-1 Sequential number of the dekad preceding the dekad under assessment;

Σ^R Sum of precipitation (mm);

Σ^T_≥10 Sum of air temperature where the temperature has been greater than or equal to 10°С;

Σ^d Sum of the air saturation deficit (hPa);

T Average air temperature during the dekad (°С);

R Sum of precipitation during the dekad (mm);

d Average air saturation deficit during the dekad (hPa).

In order to assess soil moisture drought, surface-based observation data relating to soil moisture is collected to depths of 20 cm and 100 cm across Kazakhstan during the dekad(s) under assessment. The criteria used to classify the category of soil moisture drought are shown in Table 3.

Table 3. Indicators and criteria used for the dekadal monitoring of different intensities of soil moisture drought

Name of drought assessment indicators		Categories of drought intensity
		Severe (class 1)	Moderate (class 2)	Absent (class 3)
W_0-20, мм	Reserves of productive moisture in the soil to a depth of 20 cm (measured in millimetres)	0–10	11–19	20–70
W_0-100, мм	Reserves of productive moisture in the soil to a depth of 100 cm (measured in millimetres)	0–40	41–70	71–280

Appendix D (References from Hongkong, China)

T.C. Lee, H.S. Chan, E.W.L. Ginn & M.C. Wong, 2011 : Long-term Trends in Extreme Temperatures in Hong Kong and Southern China,. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol.28 (1), 147–157. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00376-010-9160-x

Wong, M.C., H.Y Mok and T.C. Lee, 2011: Observed Changes in Extreme Weather Indices in Hong Kong. Int. J. Climatol., 31, 2300–2311, DOI: 10.1002/joc.2238. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.2238/abstract

Lenderink, G., H.Y. Mok, T.C. Lee, and G. J. van Oldenborgh, 2011 : Scaling and trends of hourly precipitation extremes in two different climate zones—Hong Kong and the Netherlands, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 3033-3041, doi:10.5194/hess-15-3033-2011. http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/15/3033/2011/hess-15-3033-2011.pdf

Lee, T.C., H.S. Chan, E.W.L. Ginn, and M.C. Wong, 2011: Long-term trends in extreme temperatures in Hong Kong and southern China. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 28(1), 147-157, doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-9160-x. http://www.springerlink.com/content/8331130118605347/

Lee, T.C., K.Y. Chan, H.S. Chan & M.H. Kok, 2011 : Projection of extreme rainfall in Hong Kong in the 21st century, Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 25(6), 691–709, doi: 10.1007/s13351-011-0601-y. http://www.cmsjournal.net/qxxb_en/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20110601&flag=1

S.T. Chan & Yiwu Huang, 2012 : Can the Extreme Rainfall Associated with Typhoon Morakot (2009) Happen in Hong Kong? Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 2012, 1 (1): 1-15. http://tcrr.typhoon.gov.cn/EN/abstract/abstract35.shtml

Wu, M., Lam, H. and Li, K., 2015, Characterization and indexing of heavy rainstorms in Hong Kong. Met. Apps, 22: 25–36. doi: 10.1002/met.1397. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.1397/abstract

W.C. Woo & W.K. Wong, 2014 : Application of Optical Flow Techniques to Rainfall Nowcasting The 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Madison, 3-7 Nov 2014. https://ams.confex.com/ams/27SLS/webprogram/Paper254084.html

Appendix E (References from Finland)

Tornadoes:

Jenni Rauhala, Harold E. Brooks, and David M. Schultz, 2012: Tornado Climatology of Finland. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 1446–1456. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00196.1

Large hail:

Jari-Petteri Tuovinen, Ari-Juhani Punkka, Jenni Rauhala, Harri Hohti, and David M. Schultz, 2009: Climatology of Severe Hail in Finland: 1930–2006. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 2238–2249. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2707.1

Thunderstorm climatology, thunderstorm intensity:

Antti Mäkelä, Sven-Erik Enno, Jussi Haapalainen, Nordic Lightning Information System: Thunderstorm climate of Northern Europe for the period 2002–2011, Atmospheric Research, Volume 139, 15 March 2014, Pages 46-61, ISSN 0169-8095, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.01.008.

Antti Mäkelä, Pekka Rossi, and David M. Schultz, 2011: The Daily Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Flash Density in the Contiguous United States and Finland. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 1323–1337. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3517.1

Forest fire warnings :

Vajda, A., Venäläinen, A., Suomi, I., Junila, P. and Mäkelä, H., 2014. Assessment of forest fire danger in a boreal forest environment: description and evaluation of the operational system applied in Finland. Meteorol. Appl., 21: 879-887, http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/met.1425.

Appendix D (References from Iran)

Xuebin Zhang, et.al. Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003. J. Geophys. Res. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006181.

Fatemeh Rahimzadeh, Ahmad Asgari and Ebrahim Fattahi, 2009. Variability of extreme temperature and precipitation in Iran during recent decades. Int. J. Climatol. 29: 329–343. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.1739.

Iman Babaeian, Maryam Karimian and Rahele Modirian, 2013. Statistical post processing MRI-CGCM3 output for seasonal precipitation forecast over Khorasan-Razavi province, Iran. http://www.nigs.ir/journal/Doc/7.3.10.pdf.

Implementation of Drought Early-warning System over IRAN (DESIR), http://gfcs.wmo.int/node/605.

Appendix E (References from the UK)

Eade R., E.J.Hamilton, D.Smith, R.Graham and A.A.Scaife, 2012. Forecasting the frequency of Extreme Daily Events on Decadal Timescales. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D21110, doi:10.1029/2012JD018015.

Hamilton E., R. Eade, R. Graham, A.A. Scaife, D. Smith and A. Maidens 2012. Forecasting the frequency of extreme daily events on seasonal timescales. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D03114, doi:10.1029/2011JD016541.

Camp, J., M. Roberts, C. MacLachlan, E. Wallace, L. Hermanson, A. Brookshaw, A. Arribas and A.A. Scaife 2015. Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms and U.S. landfall using the Met Office high resolution seasonal forecast system. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., doi:10.1002/qj.2516.

Scaife A.A., A. Arribas, E. Blockley, A. Brookshaw, R. T. Clark, N. Dunstone, R. Eade, D. Fereday, C. K. Folland, M. Gordon, L. Hermanson, J. R. Knight, D. J. Lea, C. MacLachlan, A. Maidens, M. Martin, A. K. Peterson, D. Smith, M. Vellinga, E. Wallace, J. Waters and A. Williams, 2014. Skilful Long Range Prediction of European and North American Winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 2514-2519, DOI:10.1002/2014GL059637.

Scaife A.A. Dynamics and Predictability of Large-Scale, High-Impact Weather and Climate Events (2015). J. Li, R. Swinbank, H. Volkert and R. Grotjahn, Eds. The North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations: Climate Variability, Extremes and Stratosphere Troposphere Interaction. C.U.P., in press.

Fereday D., A.Maidens, A.Arribas, A.A. Scaife, J.R. Knight 2012. Seasonal forecasts of Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009/10. Env. Res. Lett.,7, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034031.

Svensson C., A.Brookshaw, A.A.Scaife, V.A. Bell, J.D.Mackay, C.R.Jackson, H.N.Davies, A.Arribas, and S.Stanley 2015. Long Range Forecasts of UK Winter Hydrology. Env. Res. Lett., 10, C. Jackson, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064006.

Maidens A., A.Arribas, A.A.Scaife, C.MacLachlan, D. Peterson and J.R.Knight, 2013. The Influence of Surface Forcings on the North Atlantic Oscillation Regime of Winter 2010/11. Mon. wea. Rev., 141, 3801-3813.

Lewis H., M. Mittermaier, K. Mylne, K. Norman, A.A. Scaife, R. Neal, C. Pierce, D. Harrison, S. Jewell, M. Kendon, R. Saunders, G. Brunet, B. Golding, M. Kitchen, P. Davies, C. Pilling, 2015. From months to minutes - exploring the value of high resolution rainfall observation and prediction during the UK winter storms of 2013/14. Meteorol. Appl., 22, 90-104.

Hanna E., T.E. Cropper, P.D. Jones, A.A. Scaife and R. Allan, 2014. Recent seasonal asymmetric changes in the NAO: a marked summer decline and increased winter variability. Int. J. Clim., DOI: 10.1002/joc.4157.

Huntingford C., T. Marsh, A.A Scaife, E.J. Kendon, J. Hannaford, A.L. Kay, M. Lockwood, C. Prudhomme, N.S Reynard, S. Parry, J.A. Lowe, J.A. Screen, H.C. Ward, M. Roberts, P.A. Stott, V. Bell, M. Bailey, A. Jenkins, T. Legg, F. Otto, N. Massey, N. Schaller and M.R. Allen, 2014. Potential Infleunces on the UK's floods of winter 2013/14. Nat. Clim. Ch., 4, 769-777, doi:10.1038/nclimate2314.

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