Yemeni Report Explores Al-Qa'ida's 'New Strategy' in Southern Yemen

President Obama and his top national security aides were first briefed on the threat last year and have received periodic updates since then, top aides said. Senior American officials say there is no indication that a ricin attack is imminent, and some experts say the Qaeda affiliate is still struggling with how to deploy ricin as an effective weapon.

These officials also note that ricin’s utility as a weapon is limited because the substance loses its potency in dry, sunny conditions, and unlike many nerve agents, it is not easily absorbed through the skin. Yemen is a hot, dry country, posing an additional challenge to militants trying to produce ricin there.

But senior American officials say they are tracking the possibility of a threat very closely, given the Yemeni affiliate’s proven ability to devise plots, including some thwarted only at the last minute: a bomb sewn into the underwear of a Nigerian man aboard a commercial jetliner to Detroit in December 2009, and printer cartridges packed with powerful explosives in cargo bound for Chicago 10 months later.

“The potential threat of weapons of mass destruction, likely in a simpler form than what people might imagine but still a form that would have a significant psychological impact, from Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in Yemen, is very, very real,” Michael E. Leiter, who retired recently as director of the National Counterterrorism Center, said at a security conference last month. “It’s not hard to develop ricin.”

A range of administration officials have stated that the threat of a major attack from Al Qaeda’s main leadership in Pakistan has waned after Osama bin Laden’s death in May, on top of the Central Intelligence Agency’s increasing drone assaults on Qaeda targets in Pakistan’s tribal areas over the past three years.

But the continuing concern over a ricin plot underscores the menace that regional Qaeda affiliates, especially Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, now pose to the United States and American interests overseas.

“That line of threat has never abated,” said a senior American official, who referred to the terrorist group by its initials. “That’s been taken seriously by this government. What we know about A.Q.A.P. is that they do what they say.”

Senior administration officials say ricin is among the threats focused on by a secret government task force created after the printer-cartridge plot. The task force is working closely with Saudi intelligence officials and the remnants of Yemen’s intelligence agencies, and it is using information gleaned from the shipboard interrogation of a Somali terrorist leader with ties to the Yemeni branch of Al Qaeda, who was captured by Navy Seal commandos in April.

The intelligence reports indicating ricin plots by Al Qaeda’s Yemeni affiliate were first uncovered during reporting for a book, “Counterstrike: The Untold Story of America’s Secret Campaign Against Al Qaeda.” It will be published next week by Times Books, an imprint of Henry Holt & Company.

American officials now say that Al Qaeda’s most direct threat to the United States comes from the Yemeni affiliate. These officials have also expressed growing alarm at the way the affiliate is capitalizing on the virtual collapse of Yemen’s government to widen its area of control inside the country, and is strengthening its operational ties to the Shabab, the Islamic militancy in Somalia, to exploit the chaos in both countries.

“It continues to demonstrate its growing ambitions and strong desire to carry out attacks outside its region,” Daniel Benjamin, the State Department’s counterterrorism coordinator, said in a speech last month, referring to Al Qaeda’s Yemeni branch.

The affiliate has also become a magnet for terrorists fleeing the increasing pressure from drone strikes in Pakistan, and is recruiting specialists in bomb-making and other skills. “These guys have got some notoriety,” said a senior United States official who follows Al Qaeda and its affiliates closely. “They have a natural, charismatic attraction value for people who want to be jihadists and plot against the West.”

“A.Q.A.P.’s senior leaders are a lot like an organization that’s largely a brain that exists on its own and has to recruit its arms and legs to actually execute things,” the official continued.

Largely because of the Americans in the Yemeni affiliate’s top leadership, including Anwar al-Awlaki, a cleric born in New Mexico who is in hiding in Yemen, American counterterrorism and intelligence officials fear the affiliate’s innovative agility. “The fastest-learning enemy we have is A.Q.A.P.,” said the senior United States official.

In recent months, as the Yemeni government has become nearly paralyzed, the Obama administration has stepped up pressure on the Qaeda affiliate there. It has escalated a campaign of airstrikes carried out by the Pentagon’s Joint Special Operations Command with the C.I.A.’s help. The C.I.A. is building a base in the region to serve as a hub for future operations in Yemen.

The Pentagon’s air campaign in Yemen was renewed in May after a nearly yearlong hiatus; since then the military has carried out at least four airstrikes in the country.

The ricin plots believed to be emanating from Yemen are the latest example of terrorists’ desire to obtain and deploy unconventional weapons in attacks. In 1995, the Aum Shinrikyo cult released sarin nerve gas on underground trains in Tokyo, killing 12 people and injuring more than 5,000, and nearly paralyzing one of the world’s leading economies for weeks.

In 2003, British and French operatives broke up suspected Qaeda cells that possessed components and manuals for making ricin bombs and maps of the London subway system.

A ricin-dispersing bomb detonated in a major subway system or in a mall or at a major airport would not result in mass destruction on the scale of the attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, counterterrorism specialists said. But it could inflict disproportionate psychological terror on big-city transportation systems. “Is it going to kill many people? No,” said Mr. Leiter, the former counterterrorism official. “Is it going to be a big news story and is it going to scare some people? Yes.”

Months after the initial ricin intelligence reports surfaced last year, Saudi intelligence officials revealed a twist to the ricin plot: Qaeda operatives were trying to place the toxin in bottles of perfume, especially a popular local fragrance made of the resin of agarwood, and send those bottles as gifts to assassinate government officials and law enforcement and military officers. There is no indication that Al Qaeda ever succeeded with this approach, intelligence officials said.

Yemen: Sources Claim 'Sleeper Cell' of 700 Armed Men Active in Aden Environs

GMP20110810144002 Kuwait Al-Siyasah Online in Arabic 10 Aug 11

[Report by Yahya al-Sadmi: "Al-Qa'ida Prepares Itself To Proclaim Aden-Abyan Governorate, Yemeni Presidency: Salih Will be Back From Convalescence Period Shortly"]

Local sources in Aden Governorate, southern Yemen, told Al-Siyasah that no fewer than 700 armed men affiliated with Al-Qa'ida and other extremist groups are currently located in a number of regions within Aden Governorate and in the border regions of Abyan and Lahij Governorates. The sources added that these elements constitute a sleeper cell in Al-Zahir [District] that recently became active by carrying out numerous terrorist attacks in Abyan and Aden Governorates.

The sources added that two days ago these cells began holding intensive secret meetings to look into designating an Amir and a military commander for Al-Qa'ida in Aden Governorate, and discussed the date of the proclamation of the Aden-Abyan Islamic Emirate, which remains a controversial issue among Al-Qa'ida leaders. The meeting's attendees also raised the issue of who among all the Al-Qai'da leaders will be in charge of this Emirate.

[Description of Source: Kuwait Al-Siyasah Online in Arabic -- Website of leading independent daily with liberal, anti-Iran, anti-Islamist line and close ties to both the ruling family and Saudi Arabia; URL: http://www.al-seyassah.com/]

Yemen: Al-Qa ida Men, Allied Hardliners Retake Positions in Abyan Province

GMP20110810825001 London Al-Hayah Online in Arabic 10 Aug 11

[Report from Sanaa by Faysal Makram: There Are Fears that Hardliners Might Seize Control of the Oil Wells in Shabwah ]

Armed men of the Al-Qa'ida Organization and the organization's allied hardliners who are called Supporters of Shari'ah managed to retake their positions and fortifications in the suburbs of Zinjibar City, capital of the Abyan Governorate in southern Yemen. They attacked the army units that were deployed near these areas after large groups of tribesmen who cooperate with the army withdrew from there because of mistakes in air strikes that killed and wounded scores of them. They began to expand to the nearby Governorate of Shabwah, thereby causing fears that they might seize control of the oil wells there.

Local sources in Abyan told Al-Hayah that the Supporters of Shari'ah recently launched attacks on army units, killing more than nine military personnel, including an officer, and burned three vehicles near the Dufas Area and the Shaqrah and Al-Basatin posts. Meanwhile, army units killed four armed men in sporadic confrontations, the latest of which took place near the camp of the 25th Mechanized Brigade and the Al-Wihdah Stadium.

The confrontations between the government forces and hard-line fighters in Zinjibar abated with the advent of the month of Ramadan.

Reports coming in from Abyan indicated that the Supporters of Shari'ah who control most parts of the governorate redeployed in the city and in its suburbs after scores of armed men from the governorates of Shabwah, Ma'rib, and Al-Bayda arrived to join their ranks.

Tribal sources and eyewitnesses told Al-Hayah that the armed men continue to repulse any attempt by the government forces to advance toward the city center. They said intermittent clashes between the armed men and military brigades in Wadi Dufas left a number of people killed and wounded on both sides. They added that military planes bombed armed men in Wadi Hassan to the east of Zinjibar and carried out raids on Jabal Khanfar, the Health Institute, and an area near the Al-Razi Hospital in Ja'ar, destroying the water reservoir of Ja'ar and damaging some houses.

According to the eyewitnesses, military planes carried out several raids on the hardliners' positions, the Research Administration Building, the Cotton Ginning Mill, and the Vocational Institute in the Al-Kud area in Abyan.

The Yemeni authorities announced that two persons suspected of belonging to Al-Qa'ida have been arrested in two separate operations in Aden in the south of the country. The authorities also announced that three other armed men have been killed and five wounded during clashes in Abyan.

[Description of Source: London Al-Hayah Online in Arabic -- Website of influential Saudi-owned London pan-Arab daily. URL: http://www.daralhayat.com]

Xinhua Told: Tribal Chief Says Yemeni Cargo Ship Loaded With Weapons To Arrive

CPP20110811968223 Beijing Xinhua in English 1541 GMT 11 Aug 11

[Updated version: adding Urgent tag, rewriting Subject line; Xinhua: "Gov't Troops Shell Al-Qaida Hideouts in South Yemen, 5 Killed, 3 Injured"]

ADEN, Aug. 11 (Xinhua) -- At least five al-Qaida militants were killed and three others injured on Thursday when the Yemeni government troops shelled the terrorist group hideouts in the restive southern province of Abyan, local army officers said.

Abyan, some 480 km south of the capital Sanaa, is a key stronghold of the al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).

[Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency)]

Yemen: Al-Qa'ida Gunmen Attack Army Forces; Clashes Between Army, Gunmen

GMP20111021825003 London Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online in Arabic 21 Oct 11

[Report from Sanaa by Arafat Mudabish and Hamdan al-Rahbi: Yemen: A Cease-fire Truce in Sanaa Collapses and Al-Qa ida Regains Control of Zinjibar. Clashes Resume in the Al-Hasbah and Sufan Neighborhoods ]

Amid political and security developments in Yemen, a cease-fire truce between rival parties in Sanaa collapsed. Meanwhile, gunmen of the Al-Qa'ida Organization carried out violent attacks on army forces in the Abyan Governorate in the south of the country.

Eyewitnesses and local sources in the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, told Al-Sharq al-Awsat that clashes resumed in the Al-Hasbah and Sufan neighborhoods. Military forces loyal to President Ali Abdallah Salih shelled the Al-Hasbah Neighborhood and Sufan Town in the Capital less than 24 hours after a truce was reactivated following its collapse last week. Al-Hasbah, Sufan, and other areas were the scene of armed confrontations between Salih's forces and supporters of the Hashid Tribe leader, Shaykh Sadiq al-Ahmar.

Turning to the daily demonstrations in Yemeni cities, a female university student suffered serious wounds as a result of security forces' gunfire in the City of Ta'izz.

In another development, a number of people were wounded when forces loyal to President Ali Abdallah Salih opened fire at youths and students who marched through a number of streets in the city demanding that Salih and his regime officials be tried.

In the Yemeni capital Sanaa yesterday, demonstrations took off from the Al-Taghyir [Change] Square, but the demonstrators returned after the 1st Armored Division forces intervened. This division is led by Major General Ali Muhsin al-Ahmar, the direct commander of the defecting army forces that support the revolution. Eyewitnesses told Al-Sharq al-Awsat that the division's officers and soldiers asked the demonstrating "youths of the revolution" to turn back. They raised their military hats in the familiar Yemeni way to dissuade the youths from marching to their destination, the Sha'ub Area, because large groups of the so-called thugs were deployed in their route.

With regard to political developments, Dr Ahmad Ubayd Bin-Daghar, assistant secretary general of the ruling General People's Congress Party, said at a news conference in Sanaa yesterday that his country and government look forward to "a balanced resolution by the UN Security Council that will preserve Yemen's unity, sec urity, stability, and social peace because the Security Council is fully aware of what is happening in Yemen."

The UN Security Council is discussing the developments in Yemen and is expected to pass a resolution on these developments in the next few days.

Bin Daghar said his party is "fully committed to the Gulf states' initiative as an integrated whole with a timeframe for its implementation." He added that his party is also "committed to UN Envoy Jamal Bin-Umar's proposal on a mechanism to implement the initiative."

He noted: "Going to the ballot boxes is the best resolution to the current crisis in Yemen. Any other solution will be at the expense of the Yemeni unity."

The leading Yemeni figure said: "Signing the Gulf states' initiative hastily in the absence of a timeframe for its implementation mechanism will lead Yemen to a real catastrophe. The guarantees that President of the Republic Ali Abdallah Salih requested from the Arabian Gulf states, the United States, and EU are within the framework of the Gulf states' initiative. These guarantees will serve the homeland's interest, security, and stability and will prevent any acts of liquidation or calculations that will harm Yemen and its unity."

He added: "Thus, the situation requires a suitable mechanism that will enforce the initiative and take the homeland to the shore of safety in order to preserve its unity, security, and stability, not to serve individuals. The president needs no guarantees because his great national achievements are the sole guarantee for him."

He continued: "Ali Abdallah Salih, even if he gives up power, will remain as a point of reference to all political forces in the national arena as a historical leader who has made all the historical national achievements, foremost among which is the Yemeni unity on the glorious 22nd of May."

[Description of Source: London Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online in Arabic -- Website of influential London-based pan-Arab Saudi daily; editorial line reflects Saudi official stance. URL: http://www.asharqalawsat.com/]

Yemen: Drones Darken Shabwah; Govt 'Allow' Al-Qa'ida Militants To 'Roam' in South

GMP20111022083030 Sanaa Yemen Post in English 20 Oct 11

[Unattributed report: "Drones Attack in Shabwa"]

Residents in Shawa, an oil rich province of Yemen, south-east of the capital, Sana'a, are said to be terrified as Drones are darkening their sky.

Since the government is much too pre-occupied with solving the current political crisis, allowing al-Qaeda militants to roam free in its southern territories a group called "Ansar al Sharia" has been extended its area of control throughout Abyan and Shabwa.

As alleged al-Qaeda fighters are arriving in Shabwa in their hundreds, according to some residents, local villagers are worry that like in Abyan, they will bring in their wake destruction and death.

For the past few months, the U.S has been freely violating Yemen's airspace, resuming its Drone campaign onto alleged al-Qaeda targets. Only a few weeks ago, Anwar al-Awlaki, the well-known controversial cleric and one of America's most wanted terrorist was executed in al-Jawf, a northern province of Yemen. A few days later his17 year-old was to meet the same fate, gunned down my America's unmanned planes.

"Ansar al Sharia" is now in control of the city of Azzan in Shabwa.

Residents of the town have already started to evacuate their homes as they are seeing more and more planes flying over the area, leading them to believe that an attack is imminent.

[Description of Source: Sanaa Yemen Post Online in English -- Website of independent weekly newspaper, critical of government policies; updated daily; URL: http://www.yemenpost.net/Default.aspx]