2014 ndi 6ws-fitzmier, Lundberg, Abelkop Economy Disads Spending da
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- 2NC Econ--Black Swan
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2NC Econ—TimeframePrefer our time-frame—shocks rattle through the economy within daysWollstein 05 (Jarret Wollstein, editor of the Intelligent Investor Report, March 7th 2005, “Death of the Dollar?” http://www.isil.org/towards-liberty/death-of-dollar.html) If this dollar drop takes place over many years, it may be manageable. The problem is that any one of a number of events – such as foreigners dumping the dollar, another major terrorist attack on the U.S., or a U.S. or world recession – could cause the collapse to occur rapidly, even in a matter of days. / That would result in a stock market crash, skyrocketing oil (and other commodity) prices, massive recession, widespread bankruptcies, massive layoffs, bank failures, and a real estate implosion, rendering millions of Americans virtually penniless overnight. 2NC Econ--Black SwanLink probability magnifier-- the plan’s shock to the economy is a “black swan”—it’s effects on the economy happen overnight and are under-estimatedSnyder 12 (Michael Snyder, Editor of theeconomiccollapseblog.com, August 22nd 2012, “8 Economic Threats That We Were Not Even Talking About At The Beginning Of The Summer,” http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/8-economic-threats-that-we-were-not-even-talking-about-at-the-beginning-of-the-summer) In the crazy times in which we live, it helps to expect the unexpected. Sometimes you can think that you have it all figured out and then this world can throw a real curveball at you. Very few people anticipated that we would see a massive outbreak of the West Nile Virus in Texas this year or that the Mississippi River would be in danger of drying up after experiencing historic flooding last year. Who would have thought that we would see the worst drought in more than 50 years or that horrific wildfires would burn nearly 7 million acres of land? This is why economic conditions are always so hard to predict. A single "black swan event" can come along and change everything almost overnight. Our world has become incredibly unstable, and so who really knows what the rest of 2012 will bring? Will we see a stock market crash? Will the hurricane season be unusually bad? Will war erupt in the Middle East? Will we see a major earthquake on the west coast or even a volcanic eruption? Will the upcoming election cause an eruption of anger and frustration in America? We don't know the answers to those questions yet, and the truth is that we will probably see some things happen that very few of us are anticipating at this point. This is an exciting time to be a "news junkie", but unfortunately the vast majority of the news these days is bad. It is almost as if a "perfect storm" is developing. Our weather is going crazy, our financial system is on the verge of collapse, our politicians seem more insane than ever, there is evidence of social decay all around us and the drumbeats of war in the Middle East grow louder with each passing day. 2NC Econ—PerceptionWe massively outweigh—just the perception of new out of control spending triggers the linkAuerbach & Gale 09 (Alan J. Auerbach, Director of the Robert D. Burch Center for Tax Policy and Public Finance. He came to Berkeley in 1994 following faculty positions at Harvard, where he completed his PhD in Economics, and the University of Pennsylvania, and William G. Gale, Arjay and Frances Miller Chair in Federal Economic Policy and the former vice president and director of the Economic Studies Program at the Brookings Institution, December 10th 2009, “Deficit: What caused it, why it matters,” http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/30/news/economy/federal_budget_deficit/index.htm) Large chronic deficits are a serious economic problem. While much attention is given to the effect of deficits on interest rates, that effect is a symptom of a problem, not the problem itself. If they are financed domestically, deficits will gradually divert capital from productive domestic uses, through a rise in interest rates. This diversion reduces the amount of capital available to U.S. workers, lowering their wages and hence their living standards. If our deficits are financed from abroad, interest rates may not rise as much, but interest payments on these deficits will flow back abroad. In either case, the future national income of the United States and its citizens is reduced, businesses will find it harder to expand and homeowners will find it tougher to get credit. Deficits can also affect the economy more suddenly. The prospect of large or out-of-control deficits can spark investors' fears and cause a run on the dollar and a sharp rise in interest rates. Time to act, but it won't be easy President Obama and Congress need to address these looming fiscal shortfalls. But it's not that simple. The economy's health must be their primary concern, particularly with most projections seemingly pointing toward a slow, muted recovery after the current recession ends. And this continuing economic weakness creates a difficult balancing act. Fiscal stimulus can help the economy in the short run, but fiscal discipline is needed in the long run. So when should policymakers make the switch? Imposing fiscal discipline too late risks precipitating a crisis in financial markets. Imposing fiscal discipline too soon risks weakening the recovery or worsening the recession, as actually happened in the United States in the 1930s. The Great Depression actually consisted of two severe downturns, the second starting in 1937 when the federal government imposed fiscal restraint. Policymakers can thread this needle by committing now to future spending cuts and tax increases, while at the same time being careful not to undo the current stimulus or hurt economic prospects right now. Getting this mix right will require luck, discipline, imagination and leadership. 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