2014 ndi 6ws-fitzmier, Lundberg, Abelkop Economy Disads Spending da
Download 0.74 Mb.
|
- Navigate this page:
- 2NC UQ—Spending
2NC UQ—ExpertsEconomy recovery—expert predictionsBLENKINSOP 6/29 (Philip, Senior Correspondent at Thomson Reuters, “Jobs, cars seen cementing U.S. spring rebound”, REUTERS, http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/06/29/uk-global-economy-idINKBN0F40BM20140629) Monthly jobs data, arguably the most important gauge for both the Federal Reserve and the American people, is expected to show U.S. firms are continuing to hire at a solid pace as a virtuous circle of economic activity and growth takes hold. U.S. employment already returned to its pre-recession peak in May, with non-farm job gains of 217,000. Economists polled by Reuters on average expect that to dip by a modest 4,000 to 213,000 in June. That would be a fifth straight month of job gains above 200,000, a run unmatched since the Sept 1999-Jan 2000 period, just before the dot-com bubble burst. "If we settle at a 215-220 (thousand) pace that would be consistent with a transition to a faster pace of growth of around 3 percent," said Lewis Alexander, U.S. chief economist at Nomura. Alexander said he recognized risks, including rising oil prices from the conflict in Iraq and Iraqi conflict and a possible messy end to China's housing boom. "An impact is possible, but I don't think all that likely. It would have to go very badly to materially impact the U.S. outlook," he said. The jobs figures on Thursday, also set to feature a steady 6.3 percent unemployment rate, will conclude a shortened week for the United States, which breaks for Independence Day on Friday. The week will also feature auto sales, seen pulling back slightly in June after surging in May by its strongest pace since February 2007. Meanwhile forecasts for the influential ISM (Institute for Supply Management) manufacturing and services reports point to a further acceleration of growth, with respectively a fifth and fourth consecutive rise in the monthly indices. James Knightley, senior economist at ING, believes the data will support his view that growth could top an annualized 5 percent in the April-June period due to a rise of inventories, a rebound of investment and a boost from trade. Less optimistic economists suggest the jobs, car and ISM reports should at least provide a counterbalance to muted consumer spending in May, reported last week. Such spending rose by just 0.2 percent in the month, half the level forecast, and following a flat reading in April, prompting some economists to cut their estimates for second-quarter growth to as low as a 2.2 percent pace from as high as 4.0 percent before. NO ECB FIREWORKS Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank meets again, a month on from its unleashing of a far-reaching package of measures to keep the euro zone economy from slipping into a Japan-style deflation. The ECB cut interest rates to record lows - the deposit rate to below zero - and strengthened its pledge to keep them low well into the future by extending banks' unlimited access to central bank money to the end of 2016. 2NC UQ—SpendingSolid recovery on the way—we solve all your warrantsMorici 6/30/14(Peter, conomist and business professor at the University of Maryland, national columnist and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award, The Hill, “U.S. economy poised for stronger growth”, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/economy-budget/210851-us-economy-poised-for-stronger-growth) The U.S. economy is set to take off. Scarred by the financial crisis but on their feet again, consumers will lead the economy to growth in the range of 3 percent through the end of 2015. The Commerce Department reported in the first quarter the GDP decreased at a 2.9 percent annual rate, but that dismal showing was from an unlikely confluence of factors not likely to reoccur. Consumer spending, which accounts for the lion’s share of domestic demand, grew only 1 percent—about half the trend established over the previous 3 years. A bitterly cold winter was important but so was simple exhaustion from holiday spending. In the fourth quarter, household spending increased 3.3 percent, and in the first quarter, many consumers rebuilt their savings and curbed credit cards use—the cold weather just made those tasks easier. Consumers are now in a much stronger position than earlier in the economic recovery. Housing values have improved substantially, and most households have managed to significantly deleverage. For the second and third quarters, consumer spending growth should average more than 3 percent, and average close to that level through the end of 2015. Business investment dived 11.7 percent in first quarter and that simply can’t be attributed to cold weather. According to the Federal Reserve, industrial capacity utilization was 79.1 percent in May and still below the average for the last two decades. However, structural changes and advances in technologies and product designs require new investments in physical assets and software to bring existing plants up to date to accommodate more robust consumer spending. Business outlays will turn around sharply in the second and third quarters. Core durable goods orders—those less the volatile defense and aircraft sectors—look solid, and indicate general business confidence. New home sales jumped in May, and residential construction, which has disappointed so far this year, will add significantly to growth going forward. For the first time since the financial crisis, housing starts will exceed 1 million units per year on a continuing basis. Auto sales will continue up as households replace vehicles that grew old during the recession and slow recovery, and take advantage of higher fuel economy offered by carmakers. Also, it will be a very good year for pickup trucks—those sales at Ford, GM and Chrysler closely track residential construction activity. Government spending on goods and services has been declining, but those will recover moderately. Still, among the most significant public sector boosts to domestic spending will come through dispersements to the health care sector, which mostly get scored as private consumption in the GDP accounts. The international trade sector continues to drag the economy—it subtracted 1.5 percentage points from GDP in the first quarter. As consumer spending increases, so do imports of manufacturers from China and Japan, and oil to fuel more driving. Sadly, but for those problems, the economy could match the 4.7 growth rate accomplished during the Reagan recovery, instead of slogging along as it has at 2 percent during the Obama expansion. The reluctance of the Obama Administration and Congress to challenge China and Japan’s explicit strategies of undervaluing the yuan and yen to gain artificial competitive advantages are a serious drain on U.S. manufacturing, jobs creation and growth. The same applies to restrictions on offshore drilling. U.S. oil imports, net of exports, still exceed 5 million barrels a day. Most of that could be eliminated by developing those resources. Overall, GDP growth should average about 3 percent through the end of 2015. However, changes in U.S. trade and energy policy to eliminate the drag of the trade deficit on growth could easily boost growth to the levels achieved during the Reagan years. Read more: http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/economy-budget/210851-us-economy-poised-for-stronger-growth#ixzz36Lj1E6Q4 Directory: wp-content -> uploads -> 2014 2014 -> For want of a nail 2014 -> Stop Militarizing Law Enforcement Act of 2014 2014 -> Ihbb asian Championships 2014 middle school bowl Round 4 First Quarter 2014 -> Ihbb european Championships 2014 Bowl Round 4 First Quarter 2014 -> International History Bee and Bowl 2013-14 Asian Division Question Set Bowl Round Six 2014 -> United states patent and trademark office 2014 -> Coffs harbour eisteddfod vocal syllabus 2014 -> Listen News Programs Schedule pledge now 2014 -> Slow club announce third album complete surrender Download 0.74 Mb. Share with your friends:
|