Introduction 3
Scenario Background 3
Focus Question for the Scenarios 4
Chart 1: Focus Question to Anchor the Revision of the Current WECC Scenarios 5
A Consistent Set of Key Drivers of Change 5
Key Scenario Drivers, Predetermined Elements and Uncertainty 5
The Organizing Scenario Matrix 6
The Organizing Scenario Matrix 7
Chart 2: WECC Transmission Scenario Matrix 7
Point of View of the Scenarios 8
Policy Implications for the Scenarios 8
Chart 3: Policy Themes by Scenario Matrix 9
Modeling and the Transmission Planning Results for the Scenarios 10
Scenario One: Focus on Economic Recovery 11
Key Scenario Metrics in 2032: 11
Beginning Years: 2013-2017/The Dark Before the Dawn 12
Figure 1.2: Share of Energy Used by Appliances and Consumer Electronics Increases in U.S. Homes 14
Figure 1.3: The Smart Grid” at a Crossroad 16
Middle Years: 2018-2022/A New Day Dawning 16
Figure 1.4: Sales of light-duty vehicles using non-gasoline technologies by fuel type, 2010, 2020, and 2035 (million vehicles sold) 18
Final Years: 2023-2033/A Bright New Day 19
Scenario One - Overview by Key Driver 23
Scenario One – Overview of Modeling Parameters 27
Scenario One - Policy Themes 29
Scenario Two: Focus on Clean Energy 31
Key Scenario Metrics in 2032: 31
Figure 2.1: Guess What: Falling Solar Costs, Rising Retail Rates 33
Figure 2.2: Announced and Projected Coal Retirements by NERC Region 36
Middle Years: 2018-2022/Tension Passing Through the Inflection Point Toward Sustainability 37
Table 2.2: Description of Brookings-Battelle Clean Economy Categories (Energy, Energy Efficiency and Renewables) 39
Figure 2.3: The World Bank on Climate Change 42
Final Years: 2023-2033/The Lumpy Implementation of the Advanced and Clean Technology Power Industry 43
Scenario Two - Overview by Key Driver 46
Scenario Two – Overview of Modeling Parameters 49
Scenario Two - Policy Themes 51
Scenario Three: Focus on Short-Term Consumer Costs 53
Beginning Years: 2013-2017/The Doldrums Don’t End 54
Middle Years: 2018-2022/Struggling to Get on Track 56
Final Years: 2023-2033/Same as it Ever Was 58
Figure 3.2: “Defying the Odds: Virginia Brings a New Coal-Fired Plant Online” 60
Scenario Three - Overview by Key Driver 62
Scenario Three – Overview of Modeling Parameters 64
Scenario Three – Policy Themes 67
Scenario Four: Focus on Long-Term Societal Costs 69
Beginning Years: 2013-2017/The Rise of Smart Energy 70
Figure 4.1: Shale Gas Technically Recoverable Resources and Cumulative Production 72
Figure 4.2: 2010 Annual Solar Megawatts Ranking by Utility Company 74
Figure 4.3: High Level Smart Grids Domains 75
Middle Years: 2018-2022/The Age of Self-Sufficiency 77
Ending Years: 2023 to 2033/The Re-Optimization of Electric Power 79
Scenario Four - Overview by Key Driver 83
Scenario Four – Overview of Modeling Parameters 86
Scenario Four - Policy Themes 88
Scenario 4: Focus on Long-Term Societal Costs 88
Using the Scenarios for Long Term Thinking and Early Indicators 90
Long-Term Use of the Scenarios 90
Chart 4: Long-Term Movement 90
From SW to NW 91
From NW to NE 91
From NE back to NW 91
From SW to SE 91
From SE to NE 92
Early Indicators for Long-Term Transmission Planning 92
Early Indicators for Scenario 1: Focus on Economic Growth 93
Early Indicators for Scenario 2: Focus on Clean Energy 93
Early Indicators for Scenario 3: Focus on Short-Term Consumer Costs 94
Early Indicators for Scenario 4: Focus on Long-Term Societal Costs 94
Appendix I: Scenario Narrative EPS 95
Scenario 1: 95
Scenario 2: 96
Scenario 3: 96
Scenario 4: 97
Appendix II: Comparative Scenario Summary 98
Appendix III: Policy Theme Table 99
Appendix IV: Annotated Policy Theme Table 101
