A. Space being used to support ruling party legitimacy

Impact- War

One major Chinese concern about U.S. space weaponization plans, as addressed frequently in statements at the UN Conference on Disarmament (CD), is that the deployment of space weapons “will disrupt strategic balance and stability, undermine international and national security and do harm to the existing arms control instruments, in particular those related to nuclear weapons and missiles, thus triggering new arms races.”[14]

Because space weapons are at once threatening and vulnerable, it is reasonable to assume that other countries would attempt to block such a move by political and, if necessary, military means. One possible response, for example, would be the development of anti-satellite weapons to target space-based weapon systems. It is widely believed that space weapons and sensor satellites would themselves become prime high-value targets and the most vulnerable elements for defense suppression attacks.[15] It is reasonable to believe that other countries could resort to a number of low-cost and relatively low-technology anti-satellite devices to counter those critical and vulnerable U.S. space-based weapons. Eventually, China fears that the U.S. space weaponization plan would lead to an arms race in outer space and turn outer space into a battlefield.

Moreover, space weaponization would seriously disrupt the arms control and disarmament process. The initiation of U.S. space-based missile defenses would likely cause Russia as well as the United States (in response to Russia) to make smaller reductions in their nuclear arsenals. China would likely be forced to build more warheads to maintain its nuclear deterrent, which could in turn encourage India and then Pakistan to follow suit. Also, Russia has threatened to respond to any country’s deployment of space weapons. Failure to proceed with the nuclear disarmament process would also further undermine the already fragile nuclear nonproliferation regime. As Ambassador Hu Xiaodi warned in 2001, “With lethal weapons flying overhead in orbit and disrupting global strategic stability, why should people eliminate [weapons of mass destruction] or missiles on the ground? This cannot but do harm to global peace, security and stability, hence be detrimental to the fundamental interests of all states.”

Is Xu Qiliang correct? Is militarization of space inevitable? Is it in the interest of China or the US to engage in a space war? Perhaps the answer to all these questions is an emphatic no! The US and Chinese economies are symbiotically linked. For example, US and China trade in 2008 amounted to greater than 400 billion dollars.13 Outset of war between the US and China would have horrific economic ramifications to both parties. In addition, both countries have thriving space programs and rely heavily upon space platforms for military and economic purposes (albeit the US is far more reliant). So, the resulting acts in space would asymmetrically affect both nations. China and the US would be foolish to instigate a space shooting war because the “ensuing debris could quickly render Earth orbital space unusable for centuries.”14 Also, there would be great pressure from other international space powers to avoid space war since they could eventually become collateral damage of a US/China kinetic conflict in space. Given that space war is not advisable, what can the US do to prevent it?

Due to the threatening nature of space weapons, it is reasonable to as- sume that China and others would attempt to block their deployment and use by politicaland,ifnecessary,militarymeans.11 Many Chinese officials and scholars believe that China should take every possible step to maintain the effectiveness of its nuclear deterrent. This includes negating the threats from missile defense and space weaponization plans.12 In responding to any U.S. move toward deployment space weapons, the first and best option for China is to pursue an arms control agreement to prevent not just the United States but any nation from doing so – as it is advocating presently. However, if this effort fails and if what China perceives as its legitimate security concerns are ignored, it would very likely develop responses to counter and neutralize such a threat.