Affirmative Advice



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1AR – REE Shortage




Yes shortage


Pell11 (Elza Holmstedt, environmental finance writer for oilprice.com [“Rare Earth Shortages - A Ticking Timebomb for Renewables?” December 12th, http://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/Rare-Earth-Shortages-A-Ticking-Timebomb-For-Renewables.html)
A global scarcity of rare earth metals over the next five years could be “a ticking timebomb” for renewables and clean-tech, according to consultancy PwC. Hybrid cars, rechargeable batteries and wind turbines are among the sectors which could be affected by a shortage of these metals, which include cobalt, lithium and platinum, says PwC’s report Minerals and metals scarcity in manufacturing: A ‘ticking timebomb’. Rare earth metals are a key element for producing gearless wind turbines using permanent magnet generators, said Daniel Guttmann, London-based director for renewables and clean-tech at PwC. Manufacturers favour gearless turbines increasingly as they are more reliable than geared turbines, which are heavier and have more moving parts. “This is a real headache for the industry and may negatively impact the cost-curve of offshore wind,” he said. Guttman added that two ways that automotive manufacturers expect to meet tightening emission regulations are electric vehicles and reducing vehicle weight, and rare earth metals are required to construct batteries of the right cost, weight and size. “Scarce supply and the associated price implications could make it more difficult for [manufacturers] to keep pushing emissions down cost effectively,” he said.

That jacks the industry


Snyder ‘12 (Jim, reporter for Bloomberg news [“Five Rare Earths Crucial For Clean Energy Seen In Short Supply,” Jan 5th, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-05/five-rare-earths-crucial-for-clean-energy-seen-in-short-supply.html)
Limited supplies of five rare-earth minerals pose a threat to increasing use of clean-energy technologies such as wind turbines and solar panels, a U.S. Energy Department report found. The substances -- dysprosium, terbium, europium, neodymium and yttrium -- face potential shortages until 2015, according to the report, which reiterates concerns identified a year ago. The 2011 report studied 16 elements and related materials, including nickel and manganese, which are used to make batteries. The analysis of so-called critical elements began after rare-earth prices jumped following imposition of export restrictions in 2010 by China , the world’s major producer. “Diversifying the global supply chain is key,” David Sandalow , assistant secretary for policy and international affairs at the Energy Department, said today in Washington. “Developing substitutes is also key.” Demand for rare-earth materials has grown more rapidly than that for commodity metals such as steel, he said. Rare earths became a political and legislative issue after China moved to reduce export quotas in July 2010 by 40 percent. The country accounts for 95 percent of rare-earth production, according to the Energy Department. The Chinese government said late last month it was leaving the export limits unchanged, and more production from companies including Greenwood Village , Colorado-based Molycorp Inc. (MCP) may ease some supply concerns. Falling Prices While prices of rare earths fell in the second half of 2011, they remain volatile, leading some companies to search for ways to consider reducing reliance on the minerals, the Energy Department said. The department is also researching how to use rare-earths more efficiently, including through recycling, and to increase production in the U.S. The department’s Advanced Research Projects Agency--Energy has given about $31.6 million to 14 research projects to study ways to reduce or eliminate use of rare-earth elements. In Congress, at least a dozen bills have been introduced supporting development of a domestic rare-earth industry, including through U.S. loan guarantees, according to the Energy Department report. None of the measures has passed. “The biggest challenge is a permitting system that has historically taken multiple years to go from exploration to production,” Daniel McGroarty, president of Lonoke, Arkansas- based U.S. Rare Earths Inc. (UREE), said in an interview. The company has claims in Colorado, Montana and Idaho , he said. Worldwide Demand The five minerals most at risk of supply disruptions are used to make wind turbines, solar panels, electric car batteries and energy-efficient lights, according to the report. A 2007 law requiring the phase-out of incandescent light bulbs may increase demand for terbium, europium and yttrium, used in compact fluorescent bulbs that comply with higher efficiency standards, according to the report. “While these materials are generally used in low volumes relative to other resources, the anticipated deployment of clean-energy technologies could substantially increase worldwide demand,” the report said.2



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