Analyzing the Effect of the Common Fisheries Policy on the uk’s Fishing Industry: Better With Brexit?



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The dashed line in each panel references the year 1983. Panel A (top left) shows the RD graph for the total value of cod landings by the UK fleet (measured in £ million) from 1950 to 2015. Panel B (top right) shows the RD graph for the average value of cod landings by the UK fleet (measured in £ per ton) from 1950 to 2015. Panel C (bottom left) shows the RD graph for the total value of haddock landings by the UK fleet (measured £ million) from 1950 to 2015. Panel D (bottom right) shows the RD graph for the average value of haddock landings by the UK fleet (measured in £ per ton) from 1950 to 2015.


Figure 9 — Regression Discontinuity Panel: Fish Value Residuals

The dashed line in each panel references the year 1983. Panel A (top left) plots the residuals for a regression of the total value of cod landings by the UK fleet on GDP and sea surface temperature variation (SSTV) from 1950 to 2015. Panel B (top right) plots the residuals for a regression of the average value of cod landings by the UK fleet on GDP and SSTV from 1950 to 2015. Panel C (bottom left) plots the residuals for a regression of the total value of haddock landings by the UK fleet on GDP and SSTV from 1950 to 2015. Panel D (bottom right) plots the residuals for a regression of the average value of haddock landings by the UK fleet on GDP and SSTV from 1950 to 2015.

Table 8 — Additional RD Model Results:

Value and Quantity of Imports





(1)

(2)

(3)















Panel One: Value of Imports

(£ million)









1983 Dummy


43.65

147.74*

-16.62





(58.41)

(85.05)

(107.65)

1992 Dummy


-347.27***


-342.16***


-257.79**






(79.48)

(102.04)

(108.60)

2002 Dummy


-27.53

-32.11

-11.68





(88.58)

(98.23)

(99.49)

2013 Dummy


-29.45

-32.64

-151.11





(86.16)

(105.86)

(130.96)

Observations

R-squared

Adj R-squared


Panel Two: Quantity of Imports

(thousands of tons)
1983 Dummy

66

0.959



0.953

72.89***

66

0.962


0.955

47.74*

66

0.966


0.958

-10.16





(17.83)

(26.78)

(31.68)

1992 Dummy


-41.43*

-55.94*

-54.47*





(24.26)

(32.13)

(231.96)

2002 Dummy


29.54

39.97

22.37





(27.04)

(30.93)

(29.28)

2013 Dummy


-93.95***


-80.12**

-61.02





(26.31)

(33.33)

(38.54)













Observations

66

66

66

R-squared

Adj R-squared



0.978

0.975


0.979

0.975


0.983

0.979


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