FAA
Office of Aviation Policy and Plans (APO-100)
FAA U.S. Passenger Airline Forecasts, Fiscal Years 2016-2036
Methodology and Data Sources
July 25, 2016
Version 1.0
Table of Contents
Background 3
Purpose of this document 4
Document revision history 4
Acknowledgements 4
Domestic forecast methodology 5
Forecast Years 5
Assumptions 5
Domestic Forecast Methodology 5
Alternative Scenarios 9
U.S. Airlines International Forecast 9
Forecast Years 10
Form 41 Forecast Methodology 10
Alternative Scenarios 12
U.S. and Foreign Flag International Forecast 12
Forecast Years 13
CBP Forecast Methodology 13
APPENDIX A: Glossary of terms 18
APPENDIX B: Data inputs and sources 19
Data inputs and sources for the baseline domestic forecast 19
APPENDIX C: Model outputs 27
Baseline Domestic Model Output 27
Baseline International (Form 41) Model Output 38
Baseline International (Customs and Border Protection) Model Output 42
