Gonzaga Debate Institute 2010 Pointer/Gordon/Watts/Samuels Turkey Neg

European Economy Not Key to Global Economy

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European Economy Not Key to Global Economy

European Economy Not Key to Global Economy-Other countries will fill in

ACUS 4 (The Atlantic Council of the United States, “The Transatlantic Economy in 2020: A Partnership for the Future?” http://www.acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/82/0411-Transatlantic_Economy_2020_Partnership_Future.pdf) MJ

Despite the fact that the transatlantic economy seems to grow ever larger and more closely knit, problems of a serious order may lie ahead. The United States and the European Union confront serious macroeconomic issues and a looming demographic crunch, which will place a strain on pension, unemployment, and health insurance schemes. If current trends in growth, productivity, and demographics continue uninterrupted — particularly in Europe — the strong economic foundation for the transatlantic partnership may become seriously eroded. The United States faces great challenges in terms of reducing deficits and absorbing new security costs. But in Europe, where the demographic crunch is likely to be much more severe, prosperity can only be maintained by reducing government expenditures, stimulating faster economic growth, and increasing labor utilization. Despite the impressive achievements of the single market and the euro — and the promise of the new, reform-oriented European Commission under José Manuel Barroso — there is reason to question whether the European Union will once again be able to accomplish what is necessary to renew its economy. At the same time that the United States and the EU find that their economies are moving in different directions, China, India, and others are likely to experience strong economic growth and to lay claim to a bigger role in economic decision making, challenging the traditional joint stewardship of the United States and Europe. In sum, the conditions that allowed transatlantic political relations to flourish over the past fifty years and fostered U.S. and European joint leadership of the world economy may no longer exist by the year 2020.

European Economy not key to global economy-US turns for others for cooperation

ACUS 4 (The Atlantic Council of the United States, “The Transatlantic Economy in 2020: A Partnership for the Future?” http://www.acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/82/0411-Transatlantic_Economy_2020_Partnership_Future.pdf) MJ

The future of the transatlantic economy has implications not only for global economic governance, but also for the close political and economic linkages between the two sides of the Atlantic that have been fundamental to international stability for the last fifty years. Those links are expressed through cooperation in institutions like NATO and the UN, in continuing U.S.-EU undertakings in the framework of the New Transatlantic Agenda, and via bilateral U.S. relations with individual European states. If the European economy continues to lose ground, not only will Europe become more inward looking, but the EU will not have the resources or inclination to play a larger international role and to join the United States as a partner in dealing with some of the strategic challenges around the world. The United States may well try to turn elsewhere, and with the likely rise of new global players such as China and India, the United States will have alternatives. These potential partners are unlikely to share fully the democratic values that have been at the core of transatlantic cooperation, but that will be less important if these partnership arrangements are temporary and aimed at specific issues. Over time, the U.S. reflex of turning first to Europe when seeking cooperation may fade.
-----A2: Iraq Advantage-----

A2: Iraq Stability: A2withdrawal now

No Iraqi withdrawal, multiple obstructions present

Wood 7, (Withdrawal of Troops, Supplies Could Take at Least 20 Months, Officials Say, Baltimore Sun. http://www.globalpolicy.org/component/content/article/239/37845.html) WDK

But others doubt that all will go smoothly. A new report by the Government Accountability Office, the analysis agency of Congress, found severe problems in the U.S. Central Command logistics system, which will handle the withdrawal. The GAO found fragmented lines of authority, a shortage of skilled logisticians, and computer systems that can't connect with each other.

Even if US begins withdrawals, delays are inevitable

Chulov 10, (Martin, The Guardian, Published on Wednesday, May 12, 2010 by The Guardian/UK http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2010/05/12-3) WDK

The United States is likely to delay the withdrawal of the first large phase of combat troops from Iraq for at least a month after escalating bloodshed and political instability in the country. The US Commanding General Ray Odierno had been due to give the order within 60 days of the general election held in Iraq on 7 March, when the cross-sectarian candidate Ayad Allawi edged out the incumbent leader, Nouri al-Maliki. US officials had been prepared for delays in negotiations to form a new government, but now appear to have balked after Maliki's coalition aligned itself with the theocratic Shia bloc to the exclusion of Allawi, who attracted the bulk of the minority Sunni vote. There is also concern over interference from Iraq's neighbours, Iran, Turkey and Syria.

Withdrawal won’t do much, at best 50,000 troops will remain as peace-keepers

Friedman 10, (George, Chairman, co-founder, intelligence officer at Strategic Forecasting Inc. (StratFor), The U.S. Withdrawal From Iraq March 5, 2010 | 2147 GMT http://web.stratfo r.com/images/write rs/IRAQ_WITHDRAWAL.pdf?fn=2815454939) WDK

That said, the United States is not leaving Iraq completely. Some 50,000 non-combat troops will still be there in late 2010 even under the most optimistic scenarios, and future agreements could keep an American military presence in the country long after the current Status of Forces Agreement requires they be withdrawn.

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