Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead


Appendix F Track Guidance Model Errors for 2005



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Appendix F
Track Guidance Model Errors for 2005


The number of cases (“# Cases” at bottom of each table) indicates the number of JTWC forecasts represented in the error computation.

Table F-1. Homogeneous Comparison of Selected Subset of Atlantic Basin Early Track Guidance Model Errors (n mi) for 2005

Model ID

Forecast Period (h)




12

24

36

48

72

96

120

OFCL

31.0

54.2

77.3

100.2

146.1

195.6

248.4

CLP5

46.9

100.3

162.3

211.9

271.4

341.9

457.9

GFSI

35.6

60.2

85.3

116.3

198.3

275.7

359.6

GFDI

33.9

57.7

78.9

103.9

163.3

253.6

337.4

GFNI

37.1

66.1

96.8

129.6

207.9

299.4

405.4

UKMI

38.1

65.9

93.9

118.5

169.5

216.2

263.1

NGPI

34.7

61.6

90.3

118.8

178.0

236.3

324.5

GUNA

29.1

50.1

72.5

96.1

148.0

194.7

249.9

CONU

29.4

50.6

74.0

97.7

150.2

197.3

257.1

FSSE

29.3

49.5

72.1

96.1

156.6

219.8

261.9

AEMI

35.7

60.7

85.9

113.4

181.8

240.6

264.0

# Cases

398

358

319

268

183

110

71


Table F-2. Homogeneous Comparison of Selected Subset of Eastern Pacific Ocean Basin Early Track Guidance Model Errors (n mi) for 2005

Model ID

Forecast Period (h)




12

24

36

48

72

96

120

OFCL

28.0

48.0

65.9

79.4

103.6

119.0

132.8

CLP5

34.6

71.0

109.8

146.9

215.0

262.4

319.9

GFSI

34.2

60.4

87.4

113.6

176.0

238.2

256.8

GFDI

32.0

57.1

78.4

97.6

153.1

218.0

288.9

GFNI

41.5

74.9

104.5

125.5

161.2

206.4

244.0

UKMI

36.9

63.3

89.8

113.0

173.2

221.6

297.6

NGPI

38.4

71.2

97.9

123.3

174.6

220.6

267.1

GUNA

27.5

45.9

63.6

77.6

108.3

128.1

147.5

CONU

28.7

48.9

67.3

80.6

108.9

131.7

152.1

AEMI

34.0

61.2

88.8

117.8

176.8

236.0

265.8

BAMS

35.6

63.5

94.9

125.7

182.4

235.8

293.4

BAMM

34.4

58.0

82.2

107.5

148.8

181.5

227.7

BAMD

36.9

65.3

94.1

120.8

169.0

225.2

256.0

LBAR

32.6

69.3

116.2

164.4

255.7

337.9

437.1

P91E

34.6

66.6

100.1

136.3

227.5

318.8

456.4

# Cases

172

149

135

119

93

73

53

Table F-3. Heterogeneous Comparison of Selected Subset of Northwest Pacific Ocean Basin Early Track Guidance Model Errors (n mi) against Official (JTWC) Forecast for 2005

Model ID

Forecast Period (h)




12

24

36

48

72

96

120

JTWC

40

61

81

102

156

231

284

CONW

36

55

73

94

142

207

272

AFWI

45

78

115

156

279

--

--

AVNI

37

61

85

115

191

296

393

COWI

44

78

118

161

255

--

--

EGRI

46

76

108

139

211

252

306

GFNI

44

74

103

130

204

287

381

JGSI

38

61

80

99

141

234

--

JTYI

38

61

84

113

171

--

--

NGPI

43

70

96

119

182

278

360

TCLI

45

78

117

158

246

253

275

WBAI

49

83

117

154

228

--

--

# Cases

543

503

452

403

312

176

119



Table F-4. Heterogeneous Comparison of Selected Subset of North Indian Ocean Early Track Guidance Model Errors (n mi) against Official (JTWC) Forecast for 2005

Model ID

Forecast Period (h)




12

24

36

48

72

96

120

JTWC

42

62

84

116

118

133

134

CONW

41

65

91

116

123

154

185

AFWI

46

77

107

138

112

--

--

AVNI

44

60

77

94

91

84

69

COWI

40

57

66

83

112

--

--

EGRI

45

70

98

122

229

272

79

GFNI

51

67

88

114

166

279

405

JGSI

34

52

77

113

213

--

--

JTYI

45

76

121

187

317

--

--

NGPI

46

71

93

121

78

95

107

TCLI

57

96

141

179

203

--

--

WBAI

58

113

174

237

197

--

--

# Cases

77

67

56

49

18

10

8


Table F-5. Heterogeneous Comparison of Selected Subset of Southern Hemisphere Early Track Guidance Model Errors (n mi) against Official (JTWC) Forecast for 2005

(Comparison at 96 and 120 h are against CONW.)



Model ID

Forecast Period (h)




12

24

36

48

72

96

120

JTWC

41

69

91

114

199

--

--

CONW

40

67

94

117

207

248

292

AFWI

58

103

136

176

274

--

--

AVNI

44

75

111

146

223

310

394

EGRI

45

74

95

137

259

325

366

GFNI

51

89

122

147

210

282

373

NGPI

45

80

118

148

242

333

409

TCLI

52

91

134

149

338

--

--

WBAI

55

108

165

211

321

--

--

# Cases

239

213

192

169

41

--

--


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