Jackson Vanik will pass – bipartisan support of congress and interest groups gives momentum
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- A2: Jackson Vanik Good Impact Turns
- Only a risk of an impact-Jackson-Vanik can’t block Russian accession, it can only piss them off and tank relations
- Jackson Vanik has literally zero positive impact-it can do nothing good but lots of bad things
Middle East Impact-Link ExtensionExternal pressure like the plan will fail-only Jackson-Vanik agreement can get Russia on board to check Iran which is key to solveGlobe and Mail 11/12 (Obama seeks backup from China, Russia in face of Iran Nuke Reports, http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/obama-seeks-backup-from-china-russia-in-face-of-iran-nuke-reports/article2234768/) Still the statements were broad declarations that did not address the United States’ push for more sanctions against Iran, a step Russia and China oppose.Mr. Medvedev, for his part, was largely silent on Iran during his remarks, merely acknowledging that the subject was discussed. Mr. Hu did not mention Iran at all.The two meetings presented the first opportunity for the three leaders to discuss Friday’s report from the International Atomic Energy Agency, which raised new questions about Iran’s nuclear program. The watchdog agency provided evidence Tehran has conducted research, testing and procurement which could help it develop nuclear weapons. Tehran has rejected the material as a fabrication by the United States and its allies, maintaining its nuclear program is purely for energy and research. Mr. Medvedev thanked Mr. Obama for his support in Russia’s expected entrance into the World Trade Organization, asserting that Russia has received more help from this administration than all previous ones.Russia is expected to join the WTO next year, a step that would require Congress to approve permanent normal trade relations.While trade was the central topic of the APEC meeting, Saturday was marked by diplomacy, with Mr. Obama looking to contain deepening worries over Iran.For the U.S., the international report offered significant support for some long-held suspicions and lent international credence to claims that Tehran isn’t solely interested in developing atomic energy for peaceful purposes.U.S. officials have said the IAEA report is unlikely to persuade reluctant powers such as China and Russia to support tougher sanctions on the Iranian government. But Mr. Obama’s talks with Mr. Hu and Mr. Medvedev on that issue and others, including the North Korea nuclear threat, and China’s currency, which the U.S. believes China manipulates to the detriment of U.S. interests, were sure to be closely watched. A2: Jackson Vanik Good Impact TurnsRussia gets an exemption every year anyway—only a question of whether we have to keep reviewing the restrictions, and we’ve already repealed restrictions on tons of other countriesLugar 2002 (Richard, US Senator for Indiana,“Lugar Urges Repeal of Jackson-Vanik Amendment for Russia,” http://www.america.gov/st/washfile-english/2003/March/20030311150123rennefl0.0325281.html) "Since 1994, successive Administrations have found Russia in full compliance with the requirements of freedom of emigration. Because Russia continues to be subject to Jackson-Vanik, the Administration must submit a semi-annual report to the Congress on Russia's continued compliance with freedom of emigration requirements. Since 1991, Congress has authorized the removal of Jackson-Vanik restrictions from Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Czech Republic, the Slovak Republic, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Kyrgyzstan, Albania, and Georgia. The conditions that have warranted these countries' removal from Title IV reporting apply equally to Russia. "For more than 8 years, Russia has satisfied the requirements of the Jackson-Vanik legislation. It has supported free emigration and it has signed a bilateral trade agreement with the United States allowing the application of normal trade relations status. Last year, the United States declared that Russia would no longer be considered a nonmarket economy for the purposes of trade remedies laws. Russia has made tremendous strides in the last decade. While Russia currently receives normal trade relations treatment with respect to its exports to the U.S., repealing Jackson-Vanik will remove the requirement of semi-annual reports that have been an irritant in U.S.-Russia relations. Granting permanent normal trade relations also will provide certainty that will improve the investment climate and promote enhanced economic relations between the U.S. and Russia," Lugar said Only a risk of an impact-Jackson-Vanik can’t block Russian accession, it can only piss them off and tank relationsThe Hill 10/31 (Supercommittee vack on the hearing circuit, http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/1007-other/190855-overnight-money-) To Russia with trade love: An administration official emails that the next round of negotiations with Russia over its World Trade Organization accession will be held next week in Geneva. U.S. negotiators are continuing to push Russia on intellectual property rights, investment, sanitary barriers and other issues raised over the weekend by the heads of the congressional trade committees.The U.S. Trade Representative said it is “confident” that Russia will accede in December, a stance that makes some in Congress nervous the U.S. will cave in on long-held demands over compact disc piracy, mp3 websites, poultry barriers and restrictions on investment in automotive plants. If Russia is admitted to the WTO, Congress will have to vote to lift the Jackson-Vanik amendment permanently from application to Russia. The amendment, which prevents permanent normal trade relations, was put in place to pressure the Soviet Union to release Jewish émigrés in the 1980s. If Russia accedes and the U.S. does not lift Jackson-Vanik, Russia would be able to retaliate against U.S. goods for the U.S. failure to grant permanent normal relations. Jackson Vanik has literally zero positive impact-it can do nothing good but lots of bad thingsVoice of Russia 11/11 (Jackson-Vanik amendment pointless Russia, http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/11/11/60237838.html) The preservation of the Jackson-Vanik amendment after Russia joins the WTO will first of all hit American business interests, declared the head of the parliamentary committee for international affairs Mikhail Margelov who is on a visit to the US.The amendment which imposes restrictions on Russian-US trade and economic relations was accepted in the 1970s in response to USSR’s raising barriers on the way to Jews’ emigration.The current US Administration is very well aware that the amendment has lost all purpose. President Barack Obama has called Congress to cancel the discriminatory amendment and give Russia the status of a full-fledged US trade partner. at: rel hurt russian demoLow relations won’t help the democratic movementAdomanis 1/19 (Mark Adomanis, Forbes Writer on Russia, degrees from Harvard and Oxford, “National Review's Latest Attack On Obama's Russia Policy: Grasping at Straws,” 1/19/12) http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2012/01/19/national-reviews-latest-attack-on-obamas-russia-policy-grasping-at-straws/ Russia is “on the verge of fundamental change” because of purely internal developments, developments which Washington has almost no influence over. How do I know this? Because this “fundamental change” has arrived precisely during a period in which American-Russian relations have become less frosty and confrontational. The Bush administration was second to none in its support for “burgeoning democratic movements” but Russia became increasingly authoritarian nonetheless. Washington can affect Russian internal politics only on the margins, and if it goes all in on aggressive anti-Russian policies (missile defense, regime change in Syria, war with Iran, “democracy promotion”) then the tentative political opening of the past several months will be weakened. The reset is not a magical success story, but it does explain the marginal improvements in Russian-American relations over the past two years. If the reset is replaced, as Vajdic suggests, by a more hectoring and confrontational policy, then relations will swiftly worsen. This is really not particular complicated, but it should be repeated: if you want to have good relations with a country make an effort to have good relations with a country. Threats, attempted blackmail, and lectures about the inherent rightness of the American position are usually not received very well. weak russia bad – rus/china warU.S. Russian relations are key to reorienting the Russian military and preventing China Russo nuclear warNewsweek 95, [Michael Elliot, May 15 1995] "Russia," says Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott, "is a big country." That it is; lop off the newly independent states born within the old Soviet husk and you've still got a lot left -- a highly educated work force sitting on top of some of the globe's most valuable resources. True, much of that vast territory has an awful climate (climate matters-for different reasons than Russia's, it explains why Australia will never be a great power). But unlike India and China, two other "giant" states, Russia will be able to husband its vast resources without the additional strain of feeding -- and employing-more than a billion souls. It also, of course, is the only country that can launch a devastating nuclear attack on the United States. That kind of power demands respect. And sensitive handling. Stephen Sestanovich, head Russia watcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, argues that present U.S. policy is geared too much to "dismantling Russian military might" -- a policy that, since it breeds Russian resentment of Western meddling, is self-defeating. "We have to reorient Russian power," says Sestanovich, "not eliminate it. Because we can't eliminate it." Indeed, Washington should prefer a strong Russia. A Russia so weak, for example, that it could not resist a Chinese land grab of its Far East without resorting to nuclear weapons is a 21st-century nightmare. All this implies a close U.S. -- Russian relationship stretching into the future. American officials say it will be a "pragmatic" one, recognizing that Russian and U.S. national interests will sometimes collide. The danger, for the United States, is that a pragmatic relationship could be dominated by security issues. In Western Europe, some futurists say that in the coming decades Russia will talk to the United States about nuclear weapons but to the European Union about everything else-trade, economic development and the rest. Russia China war ends in extinction Sharavin 2001 [Alexander, Director of the Institute for Military and Political Analysis, What the Papers Say, Oct 3] Chinese propaganda has constantly been showing us skyscrapers in free trade zones in southeastern China. It should not be forgotten, however, that some 250 to 300 million people live there, i.e. at most a quarter of China's population. A billion Chinese people are still living in misery. For them, even the living standards of a backwater Russian town remain inaccessibly high. They have absolutely nothing to lose. There is every prerequisite for "the final throw to the north." The strength of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (CPLA) has been growing quicker than the Chinese economy. A decade ago the CPLA was equipped with inferior copies of Russian arms from late 1950s to the early 1960s. However, through its own efforts Russia has nearly managed to liquidate its most significant technological advantage. Thanks to our zeal, from antique MiG-21 fighters of the earliest modifications and S-75 air defense missile systems the Chinese antiaircraft defense forces have adopted Su-27 fighters and S-300 air defense missile systems. China's air defense forces have received Tor systems instead of anti-aircraft guns which could have been used during World War II. The shock air force of our "eastern brethren" will in the near future replace antique Tu-16 and Il-28 airplanes with Su-30 fighters, which are not yet available to the Russian Armed Forces! Russia may face the "wonderful" prospect of combating the Chinese army, which, if full mobilization is called, is comparable in size with Russia's entire population, which also has nuclear weapons (even tactical weapons become strategic if states have common borders) and would be absolutely insensitive to losses (even a loss of a few million of the servicemen would be acceptable for China). Such a war would be more horrible than the World War II. It would require from our state maximal tension, universal mobilization and complete accumulation of the army military hardware, up to the last tank or a plane, in a single direction (we would have to forget such "trifles" like Talebs and Basaev, but this does not guarantee success either). Massive nuclear strikes on basic military forces and cities of China would finally be the only way out, what would exhaust Russia's armament completely. We have not got another set of intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-based missiles, whereas the general forces would be extremely exhausted in the border combats. In the long run, even if the aggression would be stopped after the majority of the Chinese are killed, our country would be absolutely unprotected against the "Chechen" and the "Balkan" variants both, and even against the first frost of a possible nuclear winter. Directory: file -> view view -> Western Europe after wwii view -> Author study: paul fleischman view -> Qpa1 7ela study Guide view -> Arctic Oil/Gas Neg view -> November 1970 Approximately 150,000-500,000 deaths Bhola Cyclone Bangladesh view -> Grade Level: 6 Unit of Study: Caribbean glce view -> Citation: Duffield, Katy view -> Table of Contents Lesson # view -> Chinese Wind Energy Disad Download 0.68 Mb. Share with your friends:
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