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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Hurricane Joaquin Storm Center
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- Navigate this page:
- 3-Day track off – Interactive ( http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/093717.shtml5-daynlcontents )
- Polar Easterlies
- Hurricane Category Hurricane Wind Speed (mph)
- Tornado Wind Speeds Tornado Expected Damage
- (You just ended day 3, the rest of this is for LATER) Effect of Atmospheric Circulation on Climate
- Atmospheric Circulation Cells
- Review (Last 3 questions from Exercise 7.18)
- A bunch of info about hurricanes - helps with question 12 Respect the Cone: Hurricane Forecasts Explained
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Hurricane Joaquin Storm CenterClick image to zoom in – Download GIS data Other images: 5-Day track on – 3-Day track on – 3-Day track off – Interactive (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/093717.shtml?5-daynl#contents ) 
Look back at the 5-Day Track Forecast Cone and explain why the cone/hurricane (and most Atlantic hurricanes) first moves to the west, and then ultimately curves to the right. In your answer, use the following map, knowing that it covers from 15 to 35 degrees North (We live at about 42 degrees North): http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/wwhlpr/hurricane_globalwinds.rxml _______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________
Use the website for the previous question to define the following: Polar Easterlies: From 60-_______ degrees latitude. Prevailing Westerlies: From 30-60 degrees _______________ (aka ________________). Tropical Easterlies: From 0-__________ degrees latitude (aka Trade Winds). Why were these winds called the Trade Winds? __________________________________________ Now look at these wind patterns and explain how they relate to the typical patterns you saw in the prior question: http://earth.nullschool.net/ (Click on “Earth” and choose 10 hPa to view the “best” winds) _______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________
Where do most Atlantic hurricanes originate? (we talked about it in class, 7th graders may need some 8th grade help) _______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________ What happens (or doesn’t happen) in the eye of a hurricane? (look it up, or just think about it) _______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________ There are two patterns in modern hurricane names: Look at this site and figure out the patterns: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/models.asp (answers are in a drop-down menu on the RHS) ____________________________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________________________ How fast does a typical Atlantic hurricane go for its forward speed? (not wind speed, but actual forward motion) http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G16.html 0°- 35°N (average of the numbers in the chart)__________________________________________________ 35°-60°N (average of the numbers in the chart) _________________________________________________ Wow! Note in the paragraph below the chart that it indicates the maximum speeds are nearly 70mph when the hurricanes get caught in a low-pressure trough. In which hemisphere of the earth is the hurricane pictured to the right most likely to be found? Explain how you know. 
_______________________________________________ _______________________________________________ _______________________________________________
What part of the world was the El Niño weather pattern originally describing? Read “What is El Nino” which comes up automatically at the start of this site: (https://www.wildlife.ca.gov/Conservation/Marine/El-Nino#26072336-what-is-el-nio) _______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________ Same site as previous question: What is ENSO? _______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________ Now that we recognize El Niño as having worldwide impacts, what does it do in terms of our weather in Michigan? (http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2015/08/el_nino_could_make_this_winter.html ) _______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________
We should know El Niño’s impact on hurricane frequency. Look at the data chart and explain what the data would lead you to believe about named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific: http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/hurr/enso.rxml _______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________
What does the El Niño weather pattern do to reduce the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic? I’ll help you with this one – Look at the pictures under the data chart from the previous question and you will see info about wind shear having an impact on the hurricanes – that’s the info you need to describe here (and then draw for question #32): _______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________
Use the space below to draw a picture of the wind shear’s change to the hurricanes in El Niño years: (END OF DAY 2) Look at the hurricane prediction for the next few days by clicking in the dots on the cone of probability. http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane-central/joaquin-2015/AL112015 What type of storm is it and what strength is the storm today (7 Oct), and what type of storm is it expected to be and what is its strength expected to be when it nears land in England? Type of storm today:____________________________________ Strength________________________ Type of storm as it nears England:_________________________________________________________ Use the chart you created earlier in this exercise, or this site: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php to get the information for the Saffir-Simpson hurricane strength scale and to compare it to the Enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale for measuring tornadoes, http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/ohx/EF-Ratings.png
Look at this article comparing hurricane Sandy to Joaquin. Explain what a wind field is. http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2015/10/01/hurricane-joaquin-sandy/73153062/ _______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________ On the back of this page, use the cone of probability from the article in the previous question and the article used in question 33 to compare the original Joaquin prediction to the current prediction. (You just ended day 3, the rest of this is for LATER) Effect of Atmospheric Circulation on Climate READ THIS SECTION Link to the main page for entire lesson: http://www.ck12.org/user:a2VpdGhfYmFsZHdpbkBjY3BzbmV0Lm5ldA../book/CK-12-Earth-Science-Concepts-For-Middle-School/section/7.18/ Link for the part that answers the first six questions (37-42): Atmospheric Circulation Cells at http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/eoc/middle_school_t/teachers/earth/sp_atmosphere/p_atmo_circulation_composite.html NOTE: When you look at the pages in this section, you will need to click on the timeline under the earth’s atmosphere model to move from sub-page to sub-page. ALSO IMPORTANT! There are little “arrows” at the ends of some of the paragraphs that allow you to highlight the part of the diagram that answers/explains that part of the animation.
What is the atmosphere? _______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________ How are winds named? _______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________ What happens where surface winds converge? _______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________ What occurs where surface winds diverge? _______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________ What is the ITCZ? How does it change with the seasons? _______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________ What is air pressure? How does it vary by latitude? _______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________ Review (Last 3 questions from Exercise 7.18): What are prevailing winds? How do they affect climate? _______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________ Where is there not much wind? _______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________ How do atmospheric circulation cells affect precipitation? _______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________ (At this point, I should use the “practice” tab on the main page to run a quiz.)
http://thevane.gawker.com/respect-the-cone-hurricane-forecasts-explained-1614750412 Dennis Mersereau 
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