Nesa identified Issues: Strait of Hormuz
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- NESA Identified Issues: Strait of Hormuz
- 25 July 2012
- Reliance and Disclaimer
- ACIL Tasman Pty Ltd
- For information on this report
- Contributing team members
- List of boxes List of figures List of tables
Reliance and Disclaimer The professional analysis and advice in this report has been prepared by ACIL Tasman for the exclusive use of the party or parties to whom it is addressed (the addressee) and for the purposes specified in it. This report is supplied in good faith and reflects the knowledge, expertise and experience of the consultants involved. The report must not be published, quoted or disseminated to any other party without ACIL Tasman’s prior written consent. ACIL Tasman accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any loss occasioned by any person acting or refraining from action as a result of reliance on the report, other than the addressee. In conducting the analysis in this report ACIL Tasman has endeavoured to use what it considers is the best information available at the date of publication, including information supplied by the addressee. Unless stated otherwise, ACIL Tasman does not warrant the accuracy of any forecast or prediction in the report. Although ACIL Tasman exercises reasonable care when making forecasts or predictions, factors in the process, such as future market behaviour, are inherently uncertain and cannot be forecast or predicted reliably. ACIL Tasman shall not be liable in respect of any claim arising out of the failure of a client investment to perform to the advantage of the client or to the advantage of the client to the degree suggested or assumed in any advice or forecast given by ACIL Tasman. ACIL Tasman Pty Ltd ABN 68 102 652 148 Internet www.aciltasman.com.au
Contents
Executive summary 5 1Introduction 13 2Methodology and approach 16 2.1Overall approach 16 2.2Estimation of elasticities 16 2.3Estimation of price impacts 18 2.4Economic modelling 18 3Significance of Middle East production 22 3.1The Strait of Hormuz 22 3.2 Production and exports 23 3.3Australia’s dependence on Middle East petroleum 24 3.4Alternative routes to the Strait of Hormuz 27 3.5Conditions leading up to closure 29 3.6Conditions during closure 31 3.7Policy responses 34 3.7.1International cooperation 34 3.7.2Liquid Fuels Emergency Act 1984 35 3.8Impact of different oil refinery scenarios 36 3.9Overall impact and aftermath 38 4The shock sequence 39 4.1The shock 40 4.2Elasticities 41 4.3The shock effects – elasticities and prices 42 4.3.1Weeks 1 to 4 43 4.3.2Week 5 44 4.3.3Week 6 46 4.3.4Week 7 47 4.3.5Week 8 and beyond 47 4.4Summary of effects 48 4.5Other possible scenarios 50 4.5.1Other analysts views 50 5Economic impacts 53 5.1Measures of macroeconomic impacts 53 5.2Results 54 5.2.1Impacts for Australia 55 5.2.2Impacts on other countries 58 5.2.3Liquid fuel consumption 58 5.3Comparison with Singapore product supply shock 59 5.4Implications of IEA collective action 61 5.5Implications of departure from the assumed scenario 64 6Key findings and conclusions 66 ATerms of reference 70 BMethodology 75 CAnalysis of Oil Shocks 81 BBibliography 116
List of boxes List of figures List of tables ACIL Tasman was commissioned by the Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism to undertake an analysis of the economic impacts of a temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz using our computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, Tasman Global.
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