Ra iv/hc-xxxii/Doc. 2(1), p. World meteorological organization
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| Guadeloupe:
Max mean waves: 3,8m Max peak waves: 7,7m
Max mean waves: 3,1m Max peak waves: 4,6m
with periods above 15s Tropical Storm ERIKA: Although Erika was a very impressive tropical system du to a important visible outflow, it was very difficult to determine the center with accuracy. It even seems that most of the time, it had many “centers” according to the convection bursts, especially when it was supposed to cross the Guadeloupe mainland. The important high level shear adds confusion because what was considered as the main center could have been outside the active area of the system as shown below. As it was difficult to catch the real organisation of the storm, it was very hard to be confident in the forecasts track. The only signal in which we were confident was the fact that Erika had no chance to intensify and become a hurricane although the “hurricane like” outflow was very impressive. But concerning the track itself, most of the guidance models and the official forecast too were pushing ERIKA towards the North-West, even when it appeared that it was heading to the South-West. 
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