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US-Turkey Relations Bad- Armenia
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US-Turkey Relations Bad- ArmeniaU.S. –Turkey Relations Prevent Armenian Genocide Bill, this angers ArmeniaWhittell 10[Giles Whittell, Staff Writer for The Times, London. “Turkey recalls Ambassador after US vote on Armenia 'genocide'” 3/5/10, http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article7050439.ece] One of the worst massacres of the 20th-century came back to haunt international politics yesterday when a powerful Washington panel voted to call the murder of about 1.5 million Armenians in Turkey “genocide”. After more than three hours of debate, the House Committee on Foreign Affairs narrowly approved a resolution calling on President Obama to “characterise the systematic and deliberate annihilation of 1.5 million Armenians as genocide”. The vote went ahead despite last-minute pleas from the White House and State Department and triggered a furious reaction from Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish Prime Minister. “We condemn this resolution, which accuses the Turkish nation of a crime it did not committ,” he said. As Armenian observers applauded the vote on Capitol Hill, the Turkish Ambassador to Washington was recalled. The Obama Administration may still be able to prevent a full vote in the House of Representatives but yesterday’s resolution threatened to poison America’s relations with its closest Muslim ally. Washington depends on Turkey for access to northern Iraq and in its regional efforts to isolate Iran. The vote, with 23 congressmen in favour and 22 against, will also jeopardise historic efforts begun last year to create normal diplomatic relations between Turkey and Armenia. “We are seriously concerned that this resolution approved by the committee despite all our warnings will harm Turkey-US ties and efforts to nomalise Turkey-Armenia relations,” Mr Erdogan added. U.S.-Armenia Relations key to DemocracyArminfo 08[Arminfo, Private Armenian News Agency, "Armenian president, US Jewish, Armenian figures discuss ties" 6/13/08, Lexis]The president said this today at a meeting with the vice-president of the American Jewish Committee (AJC), Ambassador Peter Rosenblatt, AJC director of strategic studies Barry Jacobs, and the executive director of Armenian Assembly of America, Ross Vartyan, the press service of the Armenian president has said. Sargsyan said that Armenia is interested in developing ties with the USA and considers this as a basis for economic success, development of democracy and stability in the country. While introducing the American Jewish Committee, Ambassador Rosenblatt said that it is one of the numerous committees of the Jewish community, which is dealing with international relations more profoundly. He also said that since the 1990s they have been closely monitoring developments taking place here and are well aware about the existing situation in the region. The interest of the American Jewish Committee in Armenia and related issues is conditioned by close contacts with the Armenian community in the USA.AT: US-Turkey relations goodThe impact’s empirically denied- there have been huge drops in relations in the past over Iraq and the PKK Turkish Weekly 7/1 [2010, [JTW Analysis] Turkey’s Everlasting Fight Against PKK and The U.S. Variable European Union With Turkey, http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/103921/-jtw-analysis-turkey%E2%80%99s-everlasting-fight-against-pkk-and-the-u-s-variable.html] It is then possible to argue that Turkey thus far has had to gauge her relations with the U.S. in the light of PKK threat and likewise, she had to deal with PKK taking into account the U.S. involvement in Iraqi affairs. Just provide some evidences. As the USAK expert explains tensions between Turkey and the U.S. “kind of alleviating when the U.S. forces, through CIA, captured PKK leader in Kenya and turned him to Turkey”. However, “the “March 1st” affair, when Turkey rejected U.S. military to enter Iraq from Turkish territory, that decision caused a great cleavage in Turkish-American relations…for sure after that time the U.S. wanted to somehow punish Turkey”, Yegin states. The so-called “hood event” on July 4, 2003 when a group of Turkish military operating in Northern Iraq was captured by U.S. troops, hooded and interrogated, definitely marked a low point in Turkish-American relations. Besides, the U.S.’ support to the Iranian division of PKK, the PJAK, and U.S.’ willingness to set up a federal Iraq with strong autonomy to the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) situated in the north, further astonished Turkish government. Turkey will demand multiple concessions for good relations to have an impact Turkish Weekly 7/1 [2010, [JTW Analysis] Turkey’s Everlasting Fight Against PKK and The U.S. Variable European Union With Turkey, http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/103921/-jtw-analysis-turkey%E2%80%99s-everlasting-fight-against-pkk-and-the-u-s-variable.html] Relations between Turkey and the U.S. started to change in 2007, when U.S. policy towards Iraq entered in a new phase. The Bush Administration acknowledged the fact that Iraq’s stability could not be ensured without support from the neighboring countries, and Turkey was undoubtedly the most reliable country. As a consequence “The U.S. wanted to get Turkey’s help and Turkey’s expectation focused on the elimination of PKK. As a consequence, Turkish-American relations got better. However, Obama did not change dramatically towards the PKK and Northern Iraq” Yegin affirms. Nowadays, relations between Turkey and Northern Iraq are fruitful and friendly. Turkey is in fact Northern Iraq’s main FDI (foreign direct investment) provider, and also according to Professor Ihsan Bal, USAK expert on terrorism, the recent PKK attacks and Turkey’s retaliation onto Northern Iraqi territory is not likely to curb relations (see Latest Terrorist Attacks: What does it Mean for Turkey?, June 23, 2010). Indeed, in another recent piece (see Barzani in Ankara: Normalization of Relations, Distancing from PKK, June 9, 2010) Mehmet Yegin argues that U.S. gradual disengagement away from Iraq is likely to produce a substantial alteration of power distribution within Iraq. The central government is withdrawing power from KRG and it is in Barzani’s interest to keep good, which means economic, relations with Turkey alive. PKK presence in KRG’s territory is highly detrimental for the future of Turkish-Iraqi relations and Barzani’s differentiation between PKK and KRG is certainly a positive sign for either Turkey’s fight against territory and Iraq’s stability. However, the U.S. variable should not be forgotten. Mehmet Ali Birand on June 28, develops the thesis that the U.S. and Northern Iraq could easily have the better of PKK if only Turkey would demonstrate to swap something for it (see Turkey, U.S. negotiating over PKK in exchange for Iran, Hurriyet). The recognition of the Armenian genocide, smoother attitude towards Israel and harder stance against Iran could be assumed as ‘bargaining chip’ to trade vital intelligence over PKK maneuvers and support to fight it back. In 2007 the U.S. agreed to enhance a trilateral mechanism for information sharing to further strengthen the fight against PKK. It would be important to understand to what extent the recent attacks depended on the U.S.’ unwillingness to cooperate. 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