North Korea Nuclear Issues

In the last four years, North Korea has been on and off about dismantling its nuclear weapons. In 2008, North Korea wanted the United States to support them with oil supplies in return for their dismantlement. However, North Korea failed to show enough information and evidence that the United States refused to take action. Thus, North Korea not only stopped the disabling process but also began reassembling its nuclear program, unaffected by the United States and international pressure. Whenever facing pressure or lack of humanitarian aid, North Korea started firing missile into seas to express its anger.

In November 2008, North Korea expressed its desire to hold conversations with the U.S. and move toward Diplomatic Normalization. North Korea said it might drop its nuclear program if there were security assurances provided, sanction lifted and no joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States. In 2009, the United Nations Security Council’s condemned North Korea’s rocket launching, which North Korea claimed to be a satellite. This action made North Korea restart its nuclear facilities and boycott the international pressure as well as refuse to rejoin the Six Party Talk. From then on, North Korea has launched many missile trials and nuclear tests, which has deeply concerned the U.S. and its Asian allies.

Despite the soft line of the U.S., North Korea remains aggressive. In May 2011, North Korea tested one short-range missile that supposed to attack the Cheonan South Korean warship. Still, it used South Korean prisoners to trade for food and humanitarian support. Because of a 2010 sanction, North Korea could not collect money, but has instead demanded food and other necessities.

China has been stubborn by ignoring requests from the U.S. and the United Nation for firmer stance against North Korea. China has refused to do so because they are North Korea’s largest trade partner (more than 80%) and food supplier (Shambaugh 153). However, China said that the situation could not be solved overnight and that North Korea is like a solid ball; the more pressure put on it, the more united it will be. (This could be explained by the different views that North Korean citizens have about their government due to the wrong propagation. The united power of Vietnamese people in the Vietnam War can be taken as a good example). Yet, that is just a minor reason. The main reason is that China wants to keep its influence in the Korean Peninsula. If North Korea collapses, either South Korea or the United States will try to influence North Korea. Moreover, base on the “lip-to-teeth” theory, Northeast China security will be threatened because of geopolitics. Also, China understands that the U.S. has been occupied with the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and that a war in Korean Peninsula is unlikely. Therefore, China has been waiting for North Korea to voluntarily give up its nuclear weapons. In January 2011, China showed its impatience to North Korea by actively calling for early resumption of the Six Party Talk. In September, China blamed the U.S. and South Korean strategies toward North Korea, which led to a delay of the Six Party Talk.

In four years of holding office, President Obama has been soft-pedaling the North Korean nuclear issue. The Obama administration has tried several methods to bring North Korea back to the Six Party Talk, but has otherwise failed so far. In 2008, the U.S. delisted Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) from the state sponsor of terrorism, which created tension in the Japan-U.S. alliance. The Obama administration has been very open and flexible towards North Korea. President Obama also made clear his policy toward nuclear power that he wants a world without nuclear weapons and that the U.S. is willing to talk/negotiate about and to discard its nuclear weapons if North Korea dismantles their nuclear weapons. However, North Korea has become aggressive and stubborn, causing the president to condemn North Korea and warn that the U.S. will be quick to counter any military action. Still, in September 2011, the U.S. appeared more at ease and provided food supplies in order to bring North Korea back to the Talk. In summary, for four years the U.S. has been flexible with North Korea, but has not gained any significant achievements, which is largely due to China’s support of North Korea.

On December 19, 2011, the supreme leader of North Korea since 1994, Kim Jong Il, died. This has caused the international community to worry about the situation in the Korean Peninsula. This could also be considered as the turning point of North Korea: many nations have hopes Kim Jong Un, Kim Jong Il’s third son, can help North Korea fully engage with the international community and improve the quality of life of its citizens. Kim Jong Un has studied in Switzerland and many people believe that this experience may make him more open-minded. South Korean security has been put on alert to help ensure its national safety. China and the U.S. are both taking advantage of Kim Jong Il’s death in order to raise their influence in North Korea. However, some observers think that Kim Jong Il’s death is not going to change much of the tension in the Korean Peninsula. They believe that because Kim Jong Un was chosen as his father’s successor prior to his death, he has prepared to continue his father’s ideas and “legacy”.
U.S - Republic of Korea (ROK)

The Korea Peninsula has been a very politically sensitive area. During the Kim Dae-Jung and Roh Moohyun administrations, the ROK followed the “Sunshine Policy”, which committed them to supply North Korea with humanitarian aid, create meetings for separated families and some business ties. But since Lee Myung-Bak took the office in 2008, the ROK abandoned that policy and has taken a more hard line stance toward North Korea. The Lee administration works closely with the U.S., having many joint military exercises as well as trade ties for mutual interest. South Koreans want to establish a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the U.S., which can help create jobs for the United Stated. South Korea is bidding to host the G20 summit in 2012. Being aware that the Korean Peninsula is now viewed as a very sensitive issue, the U.S. and the ROK launch large scale military exercises in the Yellow Sea in order to demonstrate North Korea their military strength. Also, these exercises are meant to deter North Korea from using its nuclear weapons. Due to geopolitics, Seoul, the capital city of ROK, might be easily affected if there is a war on the Korean Peninsula. Hence, North Korean issues should not be solved through war, but rather via the Six Party Talk.

In four years holding office, President Obama has been largely focusing on improving the U.S. economy. The U.S has been pushing China to appreciate the Yuan (China’s currency) real value in order to reduce the deficit with China and create jobs for the U.S. citizens. Hence, the human rights issues have been given a secondary concern because there is no direct benefit from pushing China over this issue at the time being. The positive development is that the Cross Strait issues and the alliances with Japan and South Korea no longer pose major concern to the U.S. Therefore, the U.S. has held soft line toward most of the Asian countries, working closely with its allies in economic and military aspects. Although China is spending a lot of money on military modernization, the U.S. is counter-balancing with China by working with East and Southeast Asian countries, Australia and a possible relation with Myanmar. All in all, even though China’s growth poses challenges for the U.S., America is still having an increasingly important role in Asia and there is now a balance of power between the U.S. and China in this region.

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