4.5.3. Risk Hypothesis A simple risk hypothesis can be formed by considering the conceptual model. For example: “Activities associated with the drilling and production of oil will cause negative effects on water quality, waterfowl, and the fish community.” 4.5.4. Analysis The analysis phase involves evaluating exposure to stressors and the relationship between stressor levels and ecological effects. When the exact receptors are determined and the stressors are more fully characterized, an analysis plan that is appropriate to the level of detail needed by the risk managers can be formulated. Toxicity values in the literature for different types of oil and sediments can be applied to the specific fish and wildlife receptors found in the Ob River. The Watershed Modeling System, developed by the EPA and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, may be used to determine the flow of water through the oil development area and the extent of
45 Figure 6
46 water movement in the floodplain. This would assist in analyzing the impacts of floods on moving sediments and the movement of oil in the stream channels.
