Russia 110908 Basic Political Developments

National Economic Trends TABLE-Russian gold/fx reserves rise to 3.4 bln

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National Economic Trends

TABLE-Russian gold/fx reserves rise to $543.4 bln
Thu Sep 8, 2011 7:00am GMT

By Lidia Kelly

MOSCOW, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Russia's gold and foreign

exchange reserves rose to $543.4 billion in the week to Sept. 2

from $541.8 billion a week earlier, central bank data showed on


The central bank provided the following figures (in billion


Latest week 543.4

Previous week 541.8

End-2010 479.4

NOTE - The reserves include monetary gold, special drawing

rights, reserve position at the IMF and foreign exchange.

For full reserves history click on

(Writing by Lidia Kelly)

Russia's grain harvest to reach 125 million tonnes in 2020
Today at 09:08 | Interfax-Ukraine

Russia's Agriculture Ministry predicts a grain harvest of 125 million tonnes in 2020 and export potential of 41.5 million tonnes.

These figures are contained in a government agriculture development program for 2013-2020 that was compiled by the Agriculture Ministry.

This growth can be achieved through stabilization of the grain crop area at 50 million hectares, increasing cereal crops to 2.14 million hectares and legumes to 2.54 million. In addition, grain crop yield should be no less than 2.5 tonnes per hectares, the cereals yield 1.8 tonnes per hectares and legumes - 2.7 tonnes per hectare.

Sugarbeet production is forecast at 42 million tonnes in 2020 (22.2 million tonnes in 2010). The crop area should stabilize at 1.2 million hectares and yield should be 35 tonnes per hectare. The crop area for soya and rapeseed should be increased in order to bring the harvests to 3.75 million tonnes (1.2 million tonnes in 2010) and 1.54 million (670,100 tonnes), respectively. Sunflower seed production is forecast at 7.5 million tonnes (5.3 million) potatoes at 34 million tonnes (21.1 million) and open soil vegetables at 16.2 million tonnes (11.5 million tonnes).

Over 560 billion rubles in federal budget funds is to be spent on the program.

The draft program also envisages a 39% increase in agriculture production compared to 2010 (27.6% up on 2009), including a 63.1% climb in crop production (25.7% more than 2009) and 25% for livestock (29.3%).

Total funding for the 2013-2020 program should total over 3.5 trillion rubles, including direct subsidies and loan interest rate subsidies.

Read more:

Russia Will "Significantly Cut" 2012 Budget Deficit – Kudrin
Thursday, 8 September 2011 - 10:42

MOSCOW -(Dow Jones)- Russia's budget deficit will be "significantly lower than planned" in 2012 due to a higher volume of collected taxes and a rise in oil and gas revenues, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said Thursday.

Budget revenues for the year are expected to rise, while spending is seen growing only minimally, Kudrin said.

Russia earlier forecast the 2012 budget deficit at 2.7% of gross domestic product.

Kudrin also said that Russia's budget is expected to balance or have a small surplus in 2011.

-By Alexander Kolyandr and Ira Iosebashvili, Dow Jones Newswires;             +7 495 232-9195      ;

Lower 2012 budget deficit projected

      RBC, 08.09.2011, Moscow 11:53:04.Russia's 2012 federal budget deficit forecast will be substantially downgraded from the current 2.7% of GDP due to expectations of higher revenue, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Alexey Kudrin told reporters today.

      Most of the additional revenue is expected to come from outside the oil and gas sector. Collection of value-added tax is projected to account for half of the rise in revenue. A weak ruble is also conducive to additional revenue. Kudrin did not provide the exact parameters of the 2012 budget, saying that the ministry was in the process of finalizing the document.

Russia's 2012 deficit seen below forecast
3:13am EDT

MOSCOW, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Russia's Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said on Thursday that the 2012 budget deficit is likely to be "significantly lower" than the initial forecast of 2.7 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP).

Higher than anticipated oil prices - Russia's chief export - will also allow Russia to possibly see no deficit this year, Kudrin said late in August .

(Reporting by Darya Korsunskaya; Writing by Lidia Kelly)

Budget surplus reported at RUB760bn in 8M11

Alfa Bank

September 8, 2011

Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin yesterday announced that the federal budget surplus totaled RUB760bn in 8M11, which suggests an acceleration of revenue growth to 36% y/y vs. 24% y/y planned for the full year. This indicates that the 2011 breakeven can stay at $108/bbl, virtually unchanged from 2010.

The 8M11 budget execution suggests a further increase in the budget surplus, relying on higher than expected tax collection. While in 4M11 the revenue growth was 28% y/y, close to the full-year target of 24% y/y, the 8M11 acceleration to 36% y/y calls for revision of the revenue target. According to Kudrin, an additional RUB700bn will be collected this year. This additional revenue collection will allow for covering the initially expected RUB700bn deficit in the event that no additional expenditures are introduced. More importantly, the Minister confirmed that 70%, or RUB500bn, of the additional tax collection reflects better than expected non-oil revenues, which may potentially reduce the breakeven oil price by $10/bbl all else being equal. Thus, in the best case, this suggests that the 2011 breakeven will be substantially lower than the previously drafted $118/bbl and total $108/bbl, virtually unchanged from the $109/bbl seen last year.

Natalia Orlova

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