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[SKFTA DA] SNFI 2011 [SNFI 2011 Camp Tournament] [Sara Neg Group] SKFTA DA***1NC***1NC SKFTA DAA. Agreement over FTA and TAA means SKFTA has a clear path to passage Asia Pulse 7/28, (Asia Pulse 7/28 "Republican lawmakers ready to vote on S. Koea FTA" Lexus Nexis )PHS A senior Republican lawmaker urged President Barack Obama Wednesday to submit free trade agreements (FTAs) with South Korea, Colombia and Panama to Congress, saying a resolution to the controversy over a worker assistance program is in sight. David Camp (R-MI), chairman of the House Committee on Ways and Means, strongly indicated that congressional leaders have reached a deal to draw a line between the FTAs and the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program. "I believe we have negotiated a good TAA package, one that can and should stand on its own," Camp said in a speech at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. "Last week, 12 Senate Republicans vowed to vote for cloture on that package and set a clear path forward for consideration of the trade agreements and TAA in the Senate," he added. "The speaker has already promised that he would put the TAA bill on the floor. What more does the president need?" Obama has been hesitant to send the FTAs, signed several years ago, to Congress for ratification before assurance that Congress will approve the renewal of TAA. Republican members take a dim view of the US$1 billion-a-year program, arguing it duplicates many other employment assistance measures. Obama wants Congress to approve the TAA together with the FTA with South Korea, called KORUS FTA. Camp stressed the urgency of putting the pact into effect. He cited reports that the European Union's exports to South Korea have already grown 20 per cent since their FTA took effect July 1. "The time for talk on trade, and more importantly the talk about the jobs they will create, is over," he said. "For the sake of the 14 million unemployed workers in this country, the president should send up the trade agreements now. If he does so, I will and the House will act on the trade agreements and TAA immediately." But the government is unlikely to send the FTAs to Congress before its month-long summer break starting on Aug. 6. U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk openly said Tuesday that he expects Congress to approve the pacts when it reconvenes in September. B. Obama Will need PolCap to navigate past Congressional Distrust on Space Policy Whittington 5/8/11 (Mark, Writer/Reporter for the LA Times, Washington Post, USA Today, and the Houston Chronicle, White House and Congress Clash Over NASA Funding, Space Cooperation with China http://old.news.yahoo.com/s/ac/20110508/pl_ac/8438927_white_house_and_congress_clash_over_nasa_funding_space_cooperation_with_china_1, Accessed 7/28/11) The distrust Congress holds toward the administration where it comes to space policy is palatable. Members of Congress have expressed the view that NASA is slow walking the heavy lift launcher. Many are also pretty sure that the White House is trying to circumnavigate the law and is trying to find ways to cooperate with China despite the law. All of this points to the very real possibility that congress will use the power of the purse to restrict White House space policy options and to impose its own will on the future direction of NASA and space exploration. That this clash is happening at all is a direct result of a series of political blunders made by the administration dating back to the cancellation of the Constellation space exploration program and a lack of leadership on the part of the president. C. Political capital is key to break the deadlock on trade Hadar 7/21- Washington Correspondent, The Business Times Singapore (Leon H. 7/21 "Time for Obama to Exert his Leadership" Lexis )PHS If you are getting depressed following the never-ending bickering in Washington over extending the debt ceiling and cutting the budget deficits, the continuing legislative deadlock over global trade policy is not going to cheer you up. US President Barack Obama is sending the proposed free trade agreements (FTAs) with South Korea, Colombia and Panama to Congress for approval. But officials in the White House are not very optimistic that the lawmakers will approve the trade pacts before they leave for the summer recess next month. The Obama Administration has integrated the promotion of global trade into its overall economic strategy, arguing that trade agreements with emerging markets like Korea help accelerate the fragile economic recovery while creating new well-paying jobs for American workers. Many pro-free-trade Republican lawmakers share President Obama's sentiments but are unwilling to support the extension of a programme aimed at helping workers adversely affected by global trade, known as the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA). The White House and the Democrats have conditioned their support for the three FTAs on a Republican agreement to extend the TAA. But Republicans argue that the TAA needs to be eliminated as part of an effort to reduce government spending and cut the deficit. It is not clear that the White House and the Republicans will be able to bridge their differences in the next two weeks, leading White House Chief of Staff, Bill Daley, to conclude that it might not be possible to win enough Congressional votes for the pacts before the August recess. The possible setback for the White House over the trade pacts comes only a few days after World Bank president Robert Zoellick called on President Obama to assert more leadership on global trade issues and stop what he described as 'dumbing down' terms under debate in the stalled Doha Round of world trade talks. The Doha Round to reduce global trade barriers has been deadlocked, mostly because of opposition by the US and the EU to demands by emerging economies led by China, India and Brazil to cut farm subsidies. 'The whole discussion has become very defeatist,' Mr Zoellick said during a discussion in Geneva, according to The Washington Post. 'I draw out the US because the US should still be the world leader,' stressed Mr Zoellick, a former trade official under Republican administrations. He helped launch the Doha Round under President George W Bush. 'It's a missed opportunity for a pro-growth strategy at a time when the US - and the world - could use one,' he added. He is expected to retire soon from his position at the World Bank, which perhaps explains why he had no qualms about pointing the finger at US policies. Indeed, the failure on the part of the White House and Congress to provide leadership during the global trade negotiations and its inability to reach a bipartisan agreement on reducing the soaring budget deficit, are two sides of what is afflicting the legislative and policy process in Washington these days. As Mr Zoellick said, the opposition in Washington to cutting farm and ethanol subsidies makes almost no sense as a time when President Obama and Republican lawmakers are stressing their commitment to cut public spending. One could empathise to some extent with the insistence on the part of the White House and the Democrats on the need to extend the TAA as part of an effort to help American workers losing their jobs as a result of the passage of new trade pacts. Even so, many experts have raised questions about the cost-effectiveness of the programme. And after all, the new trade agreements are supposed to create many more new jobs. The protection of the interests of the members of relatively prosperous - and politically powerful - American (and European) agricultural industries runs contrary to long-term US economic interests, including balancing the federal budget. To be fair to the Americans and the Europeans, China, India and Brazil have not been very forthcoming during the trade negotiations either when it comes to protecting their own agricultural and industrial sectors from foreign competition. They seem intent on blaming Washington and Brussels for the current deadlock which threatens the collapse of the Doha Round. What President Obama should provide now is a sense of leadership over the global trade talks, the same kind that he had exhibited in his efforts to mobilise a global response to the financial meltdown and the ensuing Great Recession in 2009. Now is the time to use his political acumen and rhetorical skills, and try to make some sort of a deal with the emerging economies over trade that would involve concessions on both sides, including a willingness to cut US farm subsidies. That is the wise thing to do. D. Impact - US ties with Soko are key to solving for South-North tensions Manyin et. Al. 10- Coordinator Specialist in Asian Affairs, Specialist in Asian Affairs, Analyst in Nonproliferation ,Research Associate in Asian Affairs , Congressional Research Service (Mark E. Manyin, Emma Chanlett-Avery, Mary Beth Nikitin, Mi Ae Taylor 12/8/2010 "U.S.-South Korea Relations" https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41481.pdf )PHS Since late 2008, relations between the United States and South Korea (known officially as the Republic of Korea, or ROK) have been arguably at their best state in decades. By the middle of 2010, in the view of many in the Obama Administration, South Korea had emerged as the United States’ closest ally in East Asia. Of all the issues on the bilateral agenda, Congress has the most direct role to play in the proposed Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA). Congressional approval is necessary for the agreement to go into effect. In early December 2010, the two sides announced they had agreed on modifications to the original agreement, which was signed in 2007. South Korea accepted a range of U.S. demands designed to help the U.S. auto industry and received some concessions in return. In the United States, the supplementary deal appears to have changed the minds of many groups and members of Congress who previously had opposed the FTA, which is now expected to be presented to the 112th Congress in 2011. If Congress approves the agreement, it would be the United States’ second largest FTA, after the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). U.S.-South Korean coordination over policy towards North Korea has been particularly close. The Obama and Lee Administrations have adopted a medium-to-longer-term policy of “strategic patience” that involves three main elements: refusing to return to the Six-Party Talks without an assurance from North Korea that it would take “irreversible steps” to denuclearize; gradually attempting to alter China’s strategic assessment of North Korea; and using Pyongyang’s provocations as opportunities to tighten sanctions against North Korean entities. Additionally, the Obama Administration has said that an improvement in inter-Korean relations is a prerequisite for the United States to enter into meaningful negotiations with North Korea. Lee, in turn, has linked progress in many areas of North-South relations to progress in denuclearizing North Korea. South Korea halted almost all remaining inter-Korean projects after the March 2010 sinking of the South Korean naval vessel, the Cheonan, an event the United States and South Korea have blamed on North Korea. Tensions with North Korea were further heightened by Pyongyang’s late November 2010 shelling of a South Korean island, killing two South Korean soldiers and two civilians. The events further eroded the loose consensus that had prevailed in South Korea against openly discussing and planning for reunification in the short- or medium term. While few South Koreans advocate actively trying to topple the Kim Jong-il regime, North Korea’s actions have led many in the Lee government to view North Korea as much more of an immediate danger than previously thought. The United States maintains about 28,500 troops in the ROK. Since 2009, the two sides have accelerated steps to transform the U.S.-ROK alliance’s primary purpose from one of defending against a North Korean attack to a regional and even global partnership. Washington and Seoul have announced a “Strategic Alliance 2015” plan to relocate U.S. troops on the Peninsula and boost ROK defense capabilities. Much of the current closeness between Seoul and Washington is due to President Lee. It is unclear how sustainable many of his policies will be, particularly into 2012, when South Koreans will elect a new president and a new legislature. Bilateral coordination will be particularly tested if South Korea’s left-of-center groups, which bitterly oppose much of Lee’s agenda, retake the presidency and/or the National Assembly. This report will be updated periodically. Extinction Hayes and Green 10 - *Victoria University AND **Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute (Peter and Michael, “-“The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia”, 1/5, http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf) The consequences of failing to address the proliferation threat posed by the North Korea developments, and related political and economic issues, are serious, not only for the Northeast Asian region but for the whole international community. At worst, there is the possibility of nuclear attack1, whether by intention, miscalculation, or merely accident, leading to the resumption of Korean War hostilities. On the Korean Peninsula itself, key population centres are well within short or medium range missiles. The whole of Japan is likely to come within North Korean missile range. Pyongyang has a population of over 2 million, Seoul (close to the North Korean border) 11 million, and Tokyo over 20 million. Even a limited nuclear exchange would result in a holocaust of unprecedented proportions. But the catastrophe within the region would not be the only outcome. New research indicates that even a limited nuclear war in the region would rearrange our global climate far more quickly than global warming. Westberg draws attention to new studies modelling the effects of even a limited nuclear exchange involving approximately 100 Hiroshima-sized 15 kt bombs2 (by comparison it should be noted that the United States currently deploys warheads in the range 100 to 477 kt, that is, individual warheads equivalent in yield to a range of 6 to 32 Hiroshimas).The studies indicate that the soot from the fires produced would lead to a decrease in global temperature by 1.25 degrees Celsius for a period of 6-8 years.3 In Westberg’s view: That is not global winter, but the nuclear darkness will cause a deeper drop in temperature than at any time during the last 1000 years. The temperature over the continents would decrease substantially more than the global average. A decrease in rainfall over the continents would also follow...The period of nuclear darkness will cause much greater decrease in grain production than 5% and it will continue for many years...hundreds of millions of people will die from hunger...To make matters even worse, such amounts of smoke injected into the stratosphere would cause a huge reduction in the Earth’s protective ozone.4 These, of course, are not the only consequences. Reactors might also be targeted, causing further mayhem and downwind radiation effects, superimposed on a smoking, radiating ruin left by nuclear next-use. Millions of refugees would flee the affected regions. The direct impacts, and the follow-on impacts on the global economy via ecological and food insecurity, could make the present global financial crisis pale by comparison. How the great powers, especially the nuclear weapons states respond to such a crisis, and in particular, whether nuclear weapons are used in response to nuclear first-use, could make or break the global non proliferation and disarmament regimes. There could be many unanticipated impacts on regional and global security relationships5, with subsequent nuclear breakout and geopolitical turbulence, including possible loss-of-control over fissile material or warheads in the chaos of nuclear war, and aftermath chain-reaction affects involving other potential proliferant states. The Korean nuclear proliferation issue is not just a regional threat but a global one that warrants priority consideration from the international community. 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