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4.2.3 Model projections

327. Teng,H., Buja,L.E. and Meehl,G.A. 2006. Twenty-first-century climate change commitment from a multi-model ensemble. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L07706, doi:10.1029/2005GL024766, 2006.

328. Ramanathan,V. and Feng,Y. 2008. On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: formidable challenges ahead. PNAS 105: 14245-14250.

329. Baettig,M.B., Wild,M. and Imboden.D.M. 2007. A climate change index: Where climate change may be most prominent in the 21st century. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, l01701, doi:10.1029/2006GL028159, 2007.

330. Fyfe,J.C. and Saenko,O.A. 2007. Anthropogenic speed-up of oceanic planetary waves. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34,L10706, doi:10.1029/2007GL029859, 2007.

331. Kettleborough,J.A., Booth,B.B.B., Stott,P.A. and Allen,M.R. 2007. Estimates of uncertainty in predictions of global mean surface temperatures. J. Climate 20:843-855.

332. Meehl,G.A., Washington,W.M., Santer,B.D. et al. 2006. Climate change projections for the twenty-first century and climate change commitment in the CCSM3. J. Climate 19:2597-2616.

333. Plattner,G.-K., Knutti,R., Joos,F. et al. 2008. Long-term climate commitments projected with climate-carbon cycle models. J. Climate 21:2721-2745.

334. Stott,P.A., Huntingford,C., Jones,C.D. and Kettleborough,J.A. 2008. Observed climate change constrains the likelihood of extreme future global warming. Tellus 60B:76-82.

335. Stouffer,R.J. and Wetherald,R.T. 2007. Changes of variability in response to increasing greenhouse gases. Part I: Temperature. J. Climate 20:5455-5467.

336. Fomichev,V.I., Jonsson,A.I., De Grandpré,J. et al. 2007. Response of the middle atmosphere to CO2 doubling: Results from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model. J. Climate 20:1121-1144.

337. Held,I.M. and Soden,B.J. 2006. Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Climate 19:5689-5699.

338. Lorenz,D.J. and DeWeaver,E.T. 2007. Tropospause height and zonal wind response to global warming in the IPCC scenario integrations. JGR 112,D10119, doi:10.1029/2006JD008087, 2007.

339. Lu.J., Vecchi,G.A. and Reichler,T. 2007. Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L06805, doi:10.1029/2006GL028443, 2007.

340. Wu,A., Hsieh,W.W., Boer,G.J. and Zwiers,F.W. 2007. Changes in the Arctic Oscillation under increased atmospheric greenhouse gases. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L12710, doi:10.1029/2007GL029344, 2007.

341. Lorenz,D.J. and DeWeaver,E.T. 2007. The response of the extratropical hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Climate 20:3470-3486.

342. Raisanen,J. 2008. Warmer climate: less or more snow? Climate Dynamics 30:307-319.

343. Hori,M.E. and Ueda,H. 2006. Impact of global warming on the East Asian winter monsoon as realized by nine coupled atmospheric-ocean GCMs. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, doi:10 1029/2005GL024961, 2006.

344. Nohara,D., Kitoh,A., Hosaka,M. and Oki,T. 2006. Impact of climate change on river discharge projected by multimodel ensemble. J. Hydrometeorology 7:1076-1089.

345. Salathe,E.P.Jr. 2006. Influences of a shift in North Pacific storm tracks on western North American precipitation under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33,L19820, doi:10.1029/2006GL026882, 2006.

346. Bethke,I, Furevik,T. and Drange,H. 2006. Towards a more saline North Atlantic and a fresher Arctic under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33,L21712, doi:10.1029/2006GL027264, 2006.

347. Delworth,T.L. and Dixon,K.W. 2006. Have anthropogenic aerosols delayed a greenhouse gas-induced weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation? Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L02606,doi:10.1029/2005GL024980,2006.

348. Driesschaert,E., Fichefet,T., Goose,H. et al. 2007. Modelling the influence of Greenland ice sheet melting on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the next millennia. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L10707, doi:10.1029/2007GL029516, 2007.

349. Jungclaus,J.H., Haak,H., Esch,M. et al. 2006. Will Greenland melting halt the thermohaline circulation? Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L17708, doi:10.1029/2006GL026815, 2006.

350. Mikolajewicz,U., Gröger,M., Maier-Reimer,E. et al. 2006. Long-term effects of anthropogenic CO2 emissions simulated with a complex earth system model. Climate Dynamics 28:599-633.

351. Schweckendiek, U., and Willebrand,J. 2005. Mechanism affecting the overturning response in global warming simulations. J. Climate 18, 4925-4936.

352. Stouffer,R.J., Yin,J., Gregory,J.M. et al. 2006. Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and future climate changes. J. Climate 19:1365-1387.

353. Swingedouw,D., Braconnot,P. and Marti,O. 2006. Sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to the melting from northern glaciers in climate change experiments. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L07711, doi:10.1029/2006GL025785, 2006.

354. Timmermann,A., Okumura,Y., An,S.-I. et al. 2007. The influence of a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on ENSO. J. Climate 20:4899-4919.

355. Vellinga,M. and Wood,R.A. 2008. Impacts of thermohaline circulation shutdown in the twenty-first century. CC 91:43-63.

356. Yin,J., Schlesinger,M.E., Andronova,N.G. et al. 2006. Is a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation inrreversible? JGR 111, D12104, doi:10.1029/2005JDoo6562, 2006.

357. Zickfeld,K., Levermann,A., Morgan,M.G. et al. 2006. Expert judgement on the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to climate change. CC 82:235-265.

358. Keenlyside,N.S., Latif,M., Jungclaus,J. et al. 2008. Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector. Nature 453:84-87.

359. Kerr,R.A. 2008. Mother nature cools the greenhouse, but hotter times still lie ahead. Science 320:595

360. Smith,D.M., Cusack,S., Colman,A.W. et al. 2007. Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model. Science 317:796-799.

361. Wood,R. 2008. Natural ups and downs. Nature 453:43-44.

362. Latif,M. and Keenlyside,N.S. 2008. El Niño/Southern Oscillation response to global warming. PNAS, doi:10.1073/pnas.0710860105.

363. Meehl,G.A., Teng,H. and Branstator,G. 2006. Future changes of El Niño in two global coupled climate models. Climate Dynamics 26:549-566.

364. Meehl,G.A. and Teng,H. 2007. Multi-model changes in El Niño teleconnections over North America in a future warmer world. Climate Dynamics 29:779-790.

365. Merryfield,W.J. 2006. Changes to ENSO under CO2 doubling in a multimodel ensemble. J. Climate 19:4009-4027.

366. Philip,S. and van Oldenborgh,G.J. 2006. Shifts in ENSO coupling processes under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33,L11704, doi:10.1029/2006GL026196, 2006.

367. Arzel,O., Fichefet,T. and Goosse,H. 2006. Sea ice evolution over the 20th and 21st centuries as simulated by current AOGCMs. Ocean Modelling 12:401-415.

368. Bracegirdle,T.J., Connolley,W.M. and Turner,J. 2008. Antarctic climate change over the twenty first century. JGR 113, D03103, doi:10.1029/2007JD008933, 2008.

369. Eisenman,I., Untersteiner,N. and Wettlaufer,J.S. 2007. On the reliability of simulated Arctic sea ice in global climate models. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L10501, doi:10.1029/2007GL029914, 2007.

370. Eisenman,I.,Untersteiner,N. and Wettlaufer, J.S. 2008. Reply to comment by E.T. Weaver et al. on “On the reliability of simulated Arctic sea ice in global climate models”. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L04502, doi:10.1029/2007GL032173, 2008.

371. Holland,M.M., Finnis,J. and Serreze,M.C. 2006. Simulated Arctic Ocean freshwater budgets in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. J. Climate 19:6221-6240.

372. Lefebvre,W. and Goosse,H. 2008. Analysis of the projected regional sea-ice changes in the Southern Ocean during the twenty-first century. Climate Dynamics 30:59-76.

373. Plummer,D.A., Caya,D., Frigon,A. et al. 2006. Climate and climate change over North America as simulated by the Canadian RCM. J. Climate 19:3112-3130.

374. Teng, H., Washington,W., Meehl, G., et al. 2006. Twenty-first-century Arctic climate change in the CCSM3 IPCC scenario simulations. Climate Dynamics 26: 601-616.

375. Li, W., Fu, R. and Dickinson, R. E. 2006. Rainfall and its seasonality over the Amazon in the 21st century as assessed by the coupled models for the IPCC AR4. JGR 111, D02111, doi:10/1029/2005JD006355, 2006.



5.0 TRENDS

5.1 Paleoclimates

5.1.1 Pre-Holocene

376. Stoll,H.M. 2006. The Arctic tells its story. Nature 441:579-580.

377. Fedorov,A.V., Dekens,P.S., McCarthy,M. et al. 2006. The Pliocene paradox (mechanisms for a permanent El Niño). Science 312: 1485-1489.

378. Kawamura,K., Parrenin,F., Lisiecki,L. et al. 2007. Northern Hemisphere forcing of climate cycles in the Antarctic over the past 360,000 years. Nature 448:912-915.

379. Lambert,F., Delmonte,B., Petit,J.R. et al. 2008. Dust-climate couplings over the past 800,000 years from the EPICA Dome C ice core. Nature 452:616-620.

380. Lee,J.-E., Fung,I., DePaolo,D.J. and Otto-Bliesner,B. 2008. Water isotopes during the Last Glacial Maximum: New general circulation model calculations. JGR 113, D19109, doi:10.1029/2008JD009859, 2008.

381. Winckler,G., Anderson,R.F., Fleisher,M.Q. et al. 200Covariant glacial-interglacial dust fluxes in the equatorial Pacific and Antarctica. Science 320:93-96.

382. De Vernal,A. and Hillaire-Marcel,C. 2008. Natural variability of Greenland climate, vegetation, and ice volume during the past million years. Science 320:1622-1625.

383. Overpeck,J. and Cole,J. 2008. The rhythm of the rains. Nature 451:1061-1063.

384. Steig,E.J. and Wolfe,A.P. 2008. Sprucing up Greenland. Science 320:1595-1596.

385. Willerslev,E., Cappellini.E., Boomsma,W. et al. 2007. Ancient molecules from deep ice cores reveal a forested southern Greenland. Science 317:111-114.

386. Schneidier von Deimling,T., Ganopolski,A., Held,H. and Rahmstorf,S. 2006. How cold was the Last Glacial Maximum? Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L14709, doi:10.1029/2006GL026484, 2006.

387. Broecker,W.S. 2006. Abrupt climate change revisited. Global and Planetary Change 54:211-215.

388. Masson-Delmotte, V., Kageyama, M., Braconnot, P. et al. 2006. Past and future polar amplification of climate change. Climate Dynamics 26:513-529.

389. EPICA community members. 2006. One-to-one coupling of glacial climate variability in Greenland and Antarctica. Nature 444:195-199.

390. Jouzel,J., Masson-Delmotte,V., Cattani,O. et al. 2007. Orbital and millennial Antarctic climate variability over the past 800,000 years. Science 317:793-796.

391. Steig,E.J. 2006. The south-north connection. Nature 444:2006-2007.

392. Wolff,E.W., Fischer,H., Fundel,F. et al. 2006. Southern Ocean sea-ice extent, productivity and iron flux over the past eight glacial cycles. Nature 440:491-494.

393. Flückiger,J., Knutti,R., White,J.W.C. and Renssen,H. 2008. Modeled seasonality of glacial abrupt climatic events. Climate Dynamics 31:633-645.

394. Grachev,A., Brook,E.J. and Severinghaus,J.P. 2007. Abrupt changes in atmospheric methane at the MIS 5b-5a transition. Geophys. Res. Lett.34, L20703, doi:10.1029/2007GL029799. 2007.

395. Overpeck,J.T., Otto-Bliesner,B.L., Miller,G.H. et al. 2006. Paleoclimate evidence for future ice-sheet instability and rapid sea-level rise. Science 311:1747-1750

396. Trevena,J., Sijp,W.P. and England,M.H. 2008. North Atlantic Deep Water collapse triggered by a Southern Ocean meltwater pulse in a glacial climate state. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L09704, doi:10.1029/2008GL033236, 2008.

397. Wang,Y., Cheng,H., Edwards,R.L. et al. 2008. Millennial- and orbital-scale changes in the East Asian monsoon over the past 224,000 years. Nature 451:1090-1093.

398. Yasuhara,M., Cronin,T.M., deMenocal,P.B. et al. 2008. Abrupt climate change and collapse of deep-sea ecosystems. PNAS 105:1556-1560.

399. Braun,H., Ditlevsen,P. and Chialvo,D.R. 2008. Solar forced Dansgaard-Oeschger events and their phase relation with solar proxies. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L06703, doi:10.1029/2008GL033414, 2008.

400 . Muscheler,R. and Beer,J. 2006. Solar forced Dansgaard-Oeschger events? Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L20706, doi:10.1029/2006GL026779, 2006.

401. Schmittner,A. and Galbraith,E.D. 2008. Glacial greenhouse-gas fluctuations controlled by ocean circulation changes. Nature 456:373-376.


      1. Holocene

402. Anderson,R.K., Miller,G.H., Briner,J.P. et al. 2008. A millennial perspective on Arctic warming from 14C in quartz and plants emerging from beneath ice caps. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, LO1502, doi:10.1029/2007GL032057, 2008.

403. Carlson,A.E., Legrande,A.N., Oppo,D.W. et al. 2008. Rapid early Holocene deglaciation of the Laurentide ice sheet. Nature Geoscience 1:620-624.

404. De Vernal,A. and Hillaire-Marcel,C. 2006. Provincialism in trends and high frequency changes in the northwest North Atlantic during the Holocene. Global and Planetary Change 54:263-290.

405. Fisher,D., Dyke,A., Koerner,R. et al. 2006. Natural variability of Arctic sea ice over the Holocene. EOS 87:273, 276.

406. Klieven,H.F., Kissel,C., Laj,C. et al. 2008. Reduced North Atlantic deep water coeval with the glacial Lake Agassiz freshwater outburst. Science 319:60-63.

407. Tian, J., D. M. Nelson and F.S. Hu. 2006. Possible linkages of late-Holocene drought in the North American midcontinent to Pacific Decadal Oscillation and solar activity. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L23702, doi:10.1029/2006GL028169.

408. Viau,A.E., Gajewski,K., Sawada,M.C. and Fines, P. 2006. Millennial-scale temperature variations in North America during the Holocene. JGR 111, D09102, doi:10.1029/2005JD006031, 2006.

409. Hodgson,D.A., Bentley,M.J., Roberts,S.J. et al. 2006. Examining Holocene stability of Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves. EOS 87:305.



      1. Past Two Millennia

410. Beltrami,H., González-Rouco,J.F. and Stevens,M.B. 2006. Subsurface temperatures during the last millennium: Model and observation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L09705, doi:10.1029/2006GL026050, 2006.

411. D’Arrigo,R., Wilson,R. and Jacoby,G. 2006. On the long-term context for the late twentieth century warming. JGR 111, D03103, doi:10.1029/2005JD006352, 2006.

412. Hegerl,G.C., Crowley,T.J., Allen,M. et al. 2007. Detection of human influence on a new, validated 1500-year temperature reconstruction. J. Climate 20:650-662.

413. Hunt,B.G. 2006. The Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age and simulated climate variability. Climate Dynamics 27:677-694.

414. Li.B., Nychka,D.W., and Ammann,C.M. 2007. The ‘hockey stick’ and the 1990s: A statistical perspective on reconstructing hemispheric temperatures. Tellus 59A:591-598.

415. Mann,M.E., Zhang,Z., Hughes,M.K. et al. 2008. Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia. PNAS 105:13252-13257.

416. Mann,M.E., Rutherford,S., Wahl,E. and Ammann,C. 2007. Robustness of proxy-based climate field reconstruction methods. JGR 112,D12109, doi:10.1029/2006JD008272, 2007.

417. Moberg,A., Mohammad,R. and Mauritsen,T. 2008. Analysis of the Moberg (2005) hemispheric temperature reconstruction. Climate Dynamics 31:957-971.



418. Taylor,A.E., Wang,K., Smith,S.L. et al. 2006. Canadian Arctic Permafrost Observatories: Detecting contemporary climate change through inversion of subsurface temperature time-series. JGR 111 (B02411, doi:10.1029/2004JB003208).

419. Wahl,E.R. and Ammann,C.M. 2007. Robustness of the Mann, Bradley, and Hughes reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures: Examination of criticisms based on the nature and processing of proxy evidence. CC 85:33-69.

420. Wilson,R., Tudhope,A., Brohan,P. et al. 2006. Two-hundred-fifty years of reconstructed and modeled tropical temperaturs. JGR 111:C10007, doi:10.1029/2005JC003188, 2006.

421. Wilson,R., D’Arrigo,R., Buckly,B. et al. 2007. A matter of divergence: Tracking recent warming at hemispheric scales using tree ring data. JGR 112,D17103, doi:10.1029/2006JD008318, 2007.

422. Antoniades,D., Crawley,C., Douglas,M.S.V. et al. 2007. Abrupt environmental change in Canada’s northernmost lake inferred from fossil diatom and pigment stratigraphy. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34,L18708, doi:10.1029/2007GL030947, 2007.

423. Antoniades,D., Crawley,C., Douglas,M.S.V. et al. 2008. Reply to comment by K. Gajewski on ‘Abrupt environmental change in Canada’s northernmost lake”. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L08702, doi:10.1029/2007GL032889, 2008.

424. Gajewski,K. 2008. Comment on ‘Abrupt environmental change in Canada’s northernmost lake inferred from fossil diatom and pigment stratigraphy” by Dermot Antoniades et al. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L08701, doi:10.1029/2007GL032316, 2008.

425. Herwijer,C., Seager,R., Cook,E.R. and Emile-Geay,J. 2007. North American droughts of the last millennium from a gridded network of tree-ring data. J. Climate 20:1353-1374.

426. Michels,A., Laird,K.R., Wilson,S.E. et al. 2007. Multidecadal to millennial-scale shifts in drought conditions on the Canadian Prairies over the past six millennia: Implications for future drought assessment. GCB 13:1295-1307.

427. Osborn,T.J. and Briffa,K.R. 2006. The spatial extent of the 20th-century warmth in the context of the past 1200 years. Science 311:841-844.

428. Shindell,D.T., Faluvegi,G., Miller,R.L. et al. 2006. Solar and anthropogenic forcing of tropical hydrology. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L24706, doi:10.1029/2006GL027468, 2006.

429. Smol,J.P and Douglas,M.S.V. 2007. Crossing the final ecological threshold in high Arctic ponds. PNAS 104:12395-12397.

430. Stahle,D.W., Fye,F.K., Cook,E.R. and Griffin,R.D. 2007. Tree-ring reconstructed megadroughts over North America since A.D. 1300. CC 83:133-149.

431. Treydte,K.S., Schleser,G.H., Helle,G. et al. 2006.The twentieth century was the wettest period in northern Pakistan over the past millennium. Nature 440:1179-1182.

432. Zhang,P., Cheng,H., Edwards,R.L. et al. 2008. A test of climate, sun and culture relationships froman 1810-year Chinese cave record. Science 322:940-943.

5.2 Trends of the past century

5.2.1 Temperature

433. Forest,C.E. and R.W. Reynolds. 2008. Hot questions of temperature bias. Nature 453:601-602.

434. Hansen,J., Sato,M., Ruedy,R. et al. 2006: Global temperature change. PNAS 103:14288-14293.

435. Pielke,R.A. Sr., Davey,C.A., Niyogi,D. et al. 2007. Unresolved issues with the assessment of multidecadal global land surface temperature trends. JGR 112, D24S08, doi:10.1029/2007JD008229, 2007.

436. Rayner,N.A., Brohan,P., Parker,D.E. et al. 2006. Improved analysis of changes and uncertainties in sea surface temperature measured in situ since mid-nineteenth century: The HadSST2 dataset. J. Climate 19: 446-469.

437. Schiermeier,Q. 2008. Climate anomaly is an artifact. Nature 453:569.

438. Thompson,D.W.,. Kennedy,J.J., Wallace,J.M. and Jones,P.D. 2008. A large discontinuity in the mid-twentieth century in observed global-mean surface temperature. Nature 453:646-650.

439. Allen,R.J., and Sherwood, S.C. 2008. Warming maximum in the tropical upper troposphere deduced from thermal winds. Nature Geoscience 1:399-403.

440. Christy,J.R., Norris,W.B., Spencer,R.W. and Hnilo,J.J. 2007. Tropospheric temperature change since 1979 from tropical radiosonde and satellite measurements. JGR 112, D06102, doi:10.1029/2005JD006881, 2007.

441. Douglass,D.H., Christy,J.R., Pearson,B.D. and Singer,S.F. 2007. A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions. Int. J. Climatology 28:1693-1702.

442. Haimberger,L., Tavolato,C. and Sperka,S. 2008. Toward elimination of the warm bias in historic radiosonde temperature records – some new results from a comprehensive intercomparison of upper-air data. J. Climate 21: 4587-4606.

443. McCarthy,M.P., Titchner,H.A., Thorne, P.W. et al. 2008. Assessing bias and uncertainty in the HadAT-adjusted radiosonde climate record. J. Climate 21:817-832.

444. Randall,R.M. and Herman,B.M. 2008. Using limited time period trends as a means to determine attribution of discrepancies in microwave sounding unit-derived tropospheric temperature time series. JGR 113 D05105, doi:10.1029/2007JD008864, 2008.

445. Santer,B.D., Thorne,P.W., Haimberger,L. et al. 2008. Consistency of modeled and observed temperature trends in the tropical troposphere. Int. J. Climatology 28:1703-1722.

446. Thorne, P.W. 2008. The answer is blowing in the wind. Nature Geoscience 1:347-348.

447. Turner, J., Lachlan-Cope, A., Colwell, S. et al. 2006. Significant warming of the Antarctic winter troposphere. Science 311: 1914-1917.

448. Vinnikov,K.Y., Grody, N.C., Robock,A. et al. 2006. Temperature trends at the surface and in the troposphere. JGR 111, D03106, doi:10.1029/2005JD006392, 2006.

449. Laštovička,J., Akmaev,R.A., Beig,G. et al. 2006. Global change in the upper atmosphere. Science 314:1253-1254.

450. Qian,L., Roble,R., Solomon,S.C. and Kane,T.J. 2006. Calculated and observed climate change in the thermosphere, and a prediction for solar cycle 24. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L23705, doi:10.1029/2006GL027185.

451. Shine,K.P., Barnett,J.J. and Randel,W.J. 2008. Temperature trends derived from Stratospheric Sounding Unit radiances: The effect of increasing CO2 on the weighting function. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L02710, doi:10.1029/2007GL032218, 2008.

452. Carson,M. and Harrison,D.E. 2008. Is the upper ocean warming? Comparisons of 50-year trends from different analyses. J. Climate 21: 2259-2268.

453. Carton,J.A. and Santorelli,A. 2008. Global decadal upper-ocean heat content as viewed in nine analyses. J. Climate 21:6015-6035.

454. Domingues,C.M., Church,J.A., White,N.J. et al. 2008. Improved estimates of upper ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise. Nature 453:1090-1093.

455. Gouretski,V. and Koltermann,K.P. 2007. How much is the ocean really warming? Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L01610, doi:10.1029/2006GL027834, 2007.

456. Lyman,J.M., Willis,J.K. and Johnson,G.C. 2006. Recent cooling of the upper ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L18604, doi:10.1029/2006GL027033, 2006.

457. MacKenzie,B.R. and Schiedek,D. 2007. Daily ocean monitoring since the 1860s shows record warming of northern European seas. GCB 13:1335-1347.

458. Palmer,M.D., Haines,K., Tett,S.F.B. and Ansell,T.J. 2007. Isolating the signal of ocean global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L03610, doi:10.1029/2007GL031712, 2007.

459. Reilly,M. 2006. Cooling oceans buck global trend. New Scientist Oct 7, p14.

460. Schiermeier,Q. 2006. Oceans cool off in hottest years. Nature 442:854-855.

461. Willis,J.K., Lyman,J.M., Johnson,G.C. and Gilson,J. 2007. Correction to “Recent cooling of the upper ocean”. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L16601, doi:10.1029/2007GL030323, 2007.

462. Beltrami,H., Bourlon,E., Kellman,L. and González-Rouco,J.F. 2006. Spatial patterns of ground heat gain in the Northern Hemisphere. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L06717,doi: 10.1029/2006GL025676, 2006.

463. Austin,J.A. and Colman,S.M. 2007. Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L06604, doi:10.1029/2006GL029021, 2007.

464. Bitz,C.M. and Fu,Q. 2008. Arctic warming aloft is data set dependent. Arising from: R.G. Graverson, T. Mauritsen, M. Tjernstrom, E. Kallen and G. Svensson Nature 451:53-56 (2008). Nature 455:E3-E4.

465. Grant,A.N., Bronnimann,S., and Haimberger,L. 2008. Recent Arctic warming vertical structure contested. Arising from: R.G. Graverson, T. Mauritsen, M. Tjernstrom, E. Kallen and G. Svensson Nature 451, 53-56 (2008). Nature 455:E2-E3.

466. Graversen,R.G., Mauritsen,T., Tjernstrom,M. et al. 2008. Vertical structure of recent Arctic warming. Nature 541:53-56.

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