The eca currently lacks the resources, staff, and leadership to foster the foreign exchange program
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- STEM- Global Warming (2:51)
- Two Internal Links: First Leadership
- US leadership in science, technology, and innovation solves a litany of impacts—including climate change and disease
- Increasing allowance of F1 visas is key to carriers in STEM
- STEM education is a gateway to challenging climate change—teaches students to develop technology
- Warming causes extinction, evaluate low probability high risk outcomes
InherencyThe ECA currently lacks the resources, staff, and leadership to foster the foreign exchange program.Armstrong 17, [Matt Armstrong is an author and lecturer on public diplomacy and international media. He is a former Member of the Broadcasting Board of Governors and a former Executive Director of the U.S. Advisory Commission on Public Diplomacy.] "The Past, Present, and Future of the War for Public Opinion," War on the Rocks, https://warontherocks.com/2017/01/the-past-present-and-future-of-the-war-for-public-opinion/ 1.19.17 JD] The majority of the former USIA – whether measured in terms of staff, budget, or nations reached – exist today in the State Department. These are the public affairs sections in the U.S. embassies and consulates abroad, the Bureau of International Information Programs (IIP), and the Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs (ECA). All of these are under-resourced, under-staffed, poorly tasked, and usually lacking appropriate leadership. The foreign service officers and civil servants working in these areas are poorly supported professionally, denied essential training, and often prevented from focusing on the “last three feet”— face-to-face conversation. They tend to be occupied with administration and management functions. The State Department’s public affairs sections abroad are under the authority of the ambassador, in contrast to the former USIA’s public affairs sections that were under the Director of the USIA. The USIA equivalent of IIP, arguably the second largest group of functions of the late agency, provided integrated media development in support of public affairs sections. It also supported an extensive library system, now severely restricted under the State Department’s security requirements. The products included publishing books and magazines, producing movies, and printing maps and posters. The USIA also offered speaking tours abroad of U.S. professionals and cultural icons to meet with locals directly. These continue today, but as the IPP’s primary role shifted to develop social media packages for embassies, including an “all-hands” effort to promote tourism, its legacy as the core of USIA is all but forgotten. The ECA, which manages overseas exchanges of all kinds, seems to be on auto-pilot, seemingly focused on exchanges for the sake of exchanges. Its decades old “Interagency Working Group,” created to better coordinate exchanges sponsored by a myriad of government agencies, does little but create more busy work for the already overworked public affairs sections. While many officials realize that exchanges are essential in developing mutual understanding, its role in developing local capacity and building networks against adversarial politics is too often forgotten. STEM- Global Warming (2:51)Global WarmingFirst Scenario is Global WarmingClimate science is under assault from the administration-even as Trump and Devos valorize other parts of STEMEducation World, 16 How Will Donald Trump Impact STEM Education? How Will Donald Trump Impact STEM Education?, http://www.educationworld.com/a_news/how-will-donald-trump-impact-stem-education-667807267&as_qdr=y15(accessed May 11, 2017) Improving STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Math) learning in America’s K-12 schools has been a national focus for some time now because of Barack Obama’s commitment to supporting STEM education throughout his two terms as president. Such initiatives include establishing the first-ever White House Science Fair, the Computer Science for All campaign, and supporting efforts to train 100,000 STEM teachers by 2021. These initiatives tackle issues that have been defined as barriers to effectively teaching STEM to America’s students, such as a lack of resources for teaching computer science and a general lack of trained specialized teachers to teach most STEM subjects including but not limited to computer science. The big question in STEM this week is: Will Donald Trump keep the ball rolling on these STEM initiatives when he enters the White House? It’s hard to tell, because Trump has spoken very little about education in general during his campaigning and has on only a few occasions made mention of how committed he is to improving STEM education. Fortunately, The Scientific American asked Donald Trump’s campaign several questions about how he views science, and one of those questions touched specifically on science education in schools. The question reads: American students have fallen in many international rankings of science and math performance, and the public in general is being faced with an expanding array of major policy challenges that are heavily influenced by complex science. How would your administration work to ensure all students including women and minorities are prepared to address 21st century challenges and, further, that the public has an adequate level of STEM literacy in an age dominated by complex science and technology? Trump’s campaign responded and gave all indication that Trump will not be following in Obama’s footsteps and implementing federal STEM initiatives. "Our top-down-one-size-fits-all approach to education is failing and is actually damaging educational outcomes for our children,” Trump’s campaign said. "If we are serious about changing the direction of our educational standing, we must change our educational models and allow the greatest possible number of options for educating our children. The management of our public education institutions should be done at the state and local level, not at the Department of Education.” While federal STEM initiatives seem unlikely, one thing Trump is very likely to do is affect how climate change science is taught in schools. Trump has made it clear that he falls in the camp of skeptics who believe more research needs to be done before climate change can viewed as fact. "There is still much that needs to be investigated in the field of 'climate change,'" Trump's campaign said to the Scientific American. This has angered many educators who cite 99 percent of the scientific community standing behind the fact that climate change is happening and who want to make sure they have the resources and support to teach their students the right thing. "It is more than possible that the sweeping Republican triumph at the national level may embolden local efforts to undermine the teaching of evolution and climate change. These are worrying signs for science education,” writes National Center for Science Education (NCSE) Executive Director Ann Reid. Time is now-Climate change is real and human caused and Trump’s polices do long term damage to our understanding of science and climate change-the next few years are critical to reverse mindsetsWPR 16 Tania Lombrozo is a psychology professor at the University of California, Berkeley, What Does A Trump Presidency Mean For Climate-Change Education? https://www.wpr.org/what-does-trump-presidency-mean-climate-change-education-1 On Nov. 8, the World Meteorological Organization published a press release summarizing the findings from a report on global climate from 2011-2015. The report identified the last five years as the hottest on record, with 2015 marking the first year with global temperatures more than 1 degree Celsius above the pre-industrial era. Arctic sea ice declined, sea levels rose and many extreme weather events occurred — events that were "made more likely as a result of human-induced (anthropogenic) climate change." The same day the press release was published, Donald Trump was elected as the next president of the United States. This combination of events is deeply troubling. Trump has called climate change a hoax and has threatened to withdraw from the 2015 Paris agreement to limit climate change. Already, Trump has named climate skeptic Myron Ebell to head his Environmental Protection Agency transition team. More generally, there's speculation and concern about what a Trump presidency will mean for scientifically informed policy, for science funding and for science education. In an evaluation by Scientific American of four presidential candidates' responses to 20 questions about science posed by ScienceDebate.org, Trump came in last, with 7 points out of a possible 100. (For comparison, Clinton earned the highest score at 64). "The good thing about science," says Neil deGrasse Tyson, "is that it's true whether or not you believe in it." But the bad thing about science — at least when it comes to issues like climate change — is that it's true whether or not government policies take it into account. In sum: The next four years aren't looking good for science (or for the natural world). Concerns are especially acute when it comes to climate change and science education, where today's policies will have effects that extend well beyond a single presidential term. To help me think about the implications of a Trump presidency for climate change education and for science instruction more generally, I was fortunate to reach Ann Reid, executive director of the National Center for Science Education (NCSE), a non-profit organization with the stated mission of defending "the integrity of science education against ideological interference." Reid answered several questions about the future of science education in a conversation by e-mail: Two Internal Links: First LeadershipF-1 Visas are key to US global competiveness and overall growthWasem 16 [Ruth Ellen Wasem is the Specialist in Immigration Policy for the Congressional research Services, January 13, 2016 " Temporary Professional, Managerial, and Skilled Foreign Workers: Policy and Trends," Congressional Research Services, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/R43735.pdf, January 13, 2016/ HD] Although foreign students on F visas are generally barred from off-campus employment, some F- 1 foreign students are permitted to participate in employment known as Optional Practical Training (OPT) after completing their undergraduate or graduate studies. OPT is temporary employment that is directly related to an F-1 student’s major area of study. Generally, an F-1 foreign student may work up to 12 months in OPT status. In 2008, the Bush Administration added a 17-month extension to OPT for F-1 students in STEM fields, and the Obama Administration recently proposed a 24-month extension for F-1 students in STEM fields. Congress has an ongoing interest in regulating the immigration of professional, managerial, and skilled foreign workers to the United States. This workforce is seen by many as a catalyst of U.S. global economic competitiveness and is likewise considered a key element of the legislative options aimed at stimulating economic growth. The challenge central to the policy debate is facilitating the migration of professional, managerial, and skilled foreign workers without putting downward pressures on U.S. workers and U.S. students entering the labor market. US leadership in science, technology, and innovation solves a litany of impacts—including climate change and diseaseHoldren 16 John P. Holdren (Assistant to the President for Science and Technology, Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy). “A 21st Century Science, Technology, and Innovation Strategy for America’s National Security.” Product of the Committee on Homeland and National Security of the National Science and Technology Council. May 2016. http://www.defenseinnovationmarketplace.mil/resources/National_Security_ST_Strategy_2016_FINAL.PDF Challenges and Opportunities for the National Security ST&I Enterprise The structure and function of the national security ST&I enterprise need to address not only the global landscape as it exists today, but also the drivers that are reshaping that landscape. The enterprise is facing the following external and internal challenges and opportunities. Globalization of Science and Technology Worldwide, investment in scientific research and development is increasing at a faster pace than it is in the United States. Although the European Union, Japan, and North America still account for the majority of global science and technology investment, relative shares are shifting due to substantial growth in several Asian economies.3 This global investment is accompanied by rapid growth of ST&I talent in the rest of the world, accelerated by the increasing internationalization of the scientific research enterprise and the global flow of knowledge. The United States is no longer assured of leadership in all areas of science and technology critical to national security. Dramatically increased capacity for science and technology around the world provides not only increased challenges but also increased opportunities to collaborate with partners around the world in the development of technology for U.S. and global security. The goodwill that the United States has generated from ST&I diplomacy and international development is a key enabler for global cooperation, and the enterprise must continue to build and strengthen such relationships. Asymmetric and Unpredictable Threats Threats to national security are often asymmetric, with human or economic risks to the United States far greater than the resources required to develop and deploy the threats. Threats are often difficult to predict because modern science and technology enable many opportunities to cause harm; significant scientific knowledge is instantly available worldwide; and threats do not necessarily require an established scientific or industrial infrastructure that the United States can monitor. The global proliferation of the cyber domain imposes risks to cyber infrastructure and creates the unwanted possibility of instant widespread dissemination of national-security-sensitive information. While advances in many areas of technology are not being driven by weapons production or weaponsfocused R&D, many of the capabilities being developed have significant dual-use potential. Digital connectivity, for instance, brings tremendous societal and economic benefits, enabling rapid flow of information to all corners of the globe. The convergence of engineering design, mathematical analysis, and molecular biology presents opportunities to create entirely novel processes and capabilities in living organisms on a much more rapid scale than traditional recombinant DNA techniques, and to share these designs digitally. Nanotechnology promises the ability to engineer entirely new high-performance materials. Additive manufacturing (3-D printing) will dramatically shrink the barriers between design concepts and reality. These and many other domains of science and technology promise extraordinary economic and social gains for our Nation and the world, but all can potentially be put to use for destructive purposes. Natural Disasters and Humanitarian Crises Threats to global stability posed by challenges such as pandemics, extreme poverty and resource scarcity, climate change, and natural disasters require proactive and collaborative solutions that are enabled by scientific and technological advances. The increasing mobility of people and goods across national borders increases the importance and vulnerability of the global commons and escalates the risks posed by threats from infectious diseases. Pressures exerted on natural resources and the climate by expanding global populations and increased demand from a growing middle class have political and socio-economic impacts that threaten global stability and supply chains that support national security. The United States plays a vital role in mitigating humanitarian crises and in promoting global stability. The Administration recognizes that few global problems can be solved without U.S. action but also that few can be solved by the United States alone. Whether by developing technologies to deploy around the world for humanitarian purposes or participating in ST&I diplomacy to build global capacity, the national security ST&I enterprise must learn to adopt an integrated approach that leverages strengths and capabilities wherever they exist. Inversion of Technology Flow Advances such as radar and global positioning navigation were developed by the national security ST&I enterprise, and these technologies found broader application later when they became available to the private sector. Today, private-sector commercial technology advances often outpace developments within the Federal national security mission agencies. There is an opportunity for the national security system to benefit from the investments of the private sector and leverage the best technology advances. The national security ST&I enterprise is not currently equipped with tools and processes to identify the best commercial technologies and apply them to national security problems in a timely way. While frameworks and mechanisms exist in specialized cases for harnessing private-sector innovation, too often the most agile and innovative companies are unwilling to work with government national security customers due to the time, cost, and complexity imposed by Federal acquisition processes. Offshoring of Technological Capacity As multinational corporations take advantage of the globalization of technology development capabilities and changing economic environments, their priorities may compete with or overshadow national security interests. This has significant national security implications, as domestic commercial companies strive to maintain their competitive edge by offshoring their manufacturing operations, many of which are part of the supply chains of national-security-critical technologies. Domestic companies also have been steadily increasing investments in their offshore research facilities to leverage the economic and collaborative benefits of globalization. Critical research and development advances are taking place outside the purview of the U.S. national security ST&I enterprise, and the United States could lose leadership in entire areas of domestic technology capacity. Aging National Security ST&I Infrastructure The remarkable achievements of the national security ST&I enterprise in the decades after the Second World War were enabled by investments made over decades in special and unique—and now aging— facilities and infrastructure. Many of these physical plants date to the dawn of the Cold War or even before, and reinvestment in many cases has been on hold due to other priorities. The race to stay ahead of the increasingly sophisticated technology of potential adversaries—and enable continuing support of partners and allies—requires continued and responsive investment in cutting-edge scientific and engineering facilities, platform technologies, information technology, equipment, and instrumentation. Recognizing the realities of budget constraints, the ST&I enterprise has an opportunity to do better than simply rebuilding or expanding existing physical infrastructure. While security issues must be carefully managed, the enterprise now has the opportunity to reconsider the concept of the walls and fences around facilities. Can the enterprise protect what needs to be protected while cooperating effectively with universities and industry? Can the enterprise build the sorts of physical and cyber infrastructure that promote scientific and technical collaboration, promote meaningful technology transfer for the creation of economic value, and allow entrepreneurs and industry to share facilities, equipment, and production capacity? In some cases, efforts similar to the Army Research Laboratory’s Open Campus Initiative or the Department of Homeland Security’s National Bio and Agro-Defense Facility might serve to increase the effectiveness of U.S. national security ST&I facilities by co-locating and integrating academia, industry, and traditional defense laboratories. Challenges for the National Security ST&I Workforce The recruitment and development of a generation of talented scientists and engineers who dedicated their careers to national security was critical to the Cold War technology achievements of the United States. The national security technical workforce flourished in part because the mission was important and the government enterprise provided the best opportunity to do high-quality and cutting-edge technical work. Over time, less-positive perceptions of service in the Federal Government and declining Federal research budgets have threatened the Federal Government’s ability to attract and retain ST&I talent in key areas of national security capability. Ensuring a diverse and inclusive workplace environment to support a culture of innovation in the national security ST&I enterprise remains a significant challenge. Science and engineering are based on intellectual exchange and collaboration, and groundbreaking technical work requires close-knit and nurtured teams of talented individuals with the freedom to explore and grow. If the U.S. national security ST&I workforce is not valued or treated well, the enterprise risks jeopardizing the call to service and tradition of excellence. Rules meant to promote the responsible use of resources have had unintended consequences. For example, restrictions on travel and conference attendance have diminished the ability of Federal scientists and engineers to advance their technical skills and take advantage of opportunities for technical exchange with the wider professional science and engineering community. The best and brightest scientists and engineers have many opportunities in today’s technology-rich world, and the national security ST&I enterprise must be able to attract and access this talent and provide the tools, processes, and working environment that will sustain motivation and excellence. The Federal Government maintains cumbersome human-resources barriers compared to the best privatesector and university practices. Unlike previous generations, the majority of workers of today and tomorrow may embark on career journeys that are not tied to a single institution with the expectation of lifetime employment. An ability to embrace the healthy and sustainable flow among sectors and organizations that is characteristic of modern private-sector technical careers would improve the quality, flow, and diversity of new entrants in the workforce for national security ST&I. While the call for public service and the national security mission are important in attracting technical talent into Federal service, Federal Government salaries generally are not competitive with other technology employers. In particular, government compensation lags significantly at senior levels, making lateral recruitment from other sectors of qualified and experienced leadership and management talent extremely challenging. With a few exceptions, current regulations and statutory limitations make it very A 21st Century Science, Technology, and Innovation Enterprise for America’s National Security 7 difficult to arrange for exchange or rotational experiences with the private and academic sectors. Opportunities to Revitalize the National Security ST&I Workforce By some estimates, almost half of current national security scientists and engineers will become eligible to retire within the coming decade.4 Ensuring a robust pipeline of qualified science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) talent remains problematic, including the ability to recruit from a diverse pool of American citizens eligible for the clearances necessary for national security work5 . While U.S. citizenship will continue to be required for those working in sensitive areas, the institutions that contribute to the national security science, technology, and innovation infrastructure should be, wherever possible, able to draw on the world’s best and brightest minds regardless of citizenship. The coming wave of retirements affords a once-in-a-generation opportunity for the Federal Government to fundamentally rethink personnel policies to sustain, cultivate, reshape, and promote a world-class national security ST&I workforce. Reliable support for evidence-based programs designed to maintain a diverse and robust STEM education pipeline, including providing robust STEM opportunities for the children of military families at home and abroad, is critical for the U.S. national security ST&I workforce. Opportunities in Science, Technology, and Innovation Diplomacy American values of democracy, rule of law, and freedom of expression help to guide collaboration and norms for conduct in the international scientific community. American scientists and engineers promote meritocracy, transparency, open data, sharing of scientific information and ideas, reproducibility of scientific results, critical thinking, diversity of thought, and respect for intellectual property. International engagement and the formation of partnerships in ST&I provide a platform to share these values, create linkages among international science communities, promote greater participation of women and underrepresented minorities in science and engineering, and highlight the role of civil society and nongovernmental actors. Science and technology support governments in formulating evidence-based policies, meeting challenges, and combating threats to international order, including climate change; natural disasters; wildlife trafficking; water, food, and energy security; polar issues; ocean conservation; pandemics; and space security. The United States is committed to harnessing technology and making data available to mitigate the impact of disasters through open mapping, open data, crowdsourced solutions, and other means. Promoting access to high-quality STEM education, training, and opportunities will be a part of U.S. ST&I outreach around the world. Second is STEMIncreasing allowance of F1 visas is key to carriers in STEMNeil G. Ruiz 14, "The Geography of Foreign Students in U.S. Higher Education: Origins and Destinations," Brookings, https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/the-geography-of-foreign-students-in-u-s-higher-education-origins-and-destinations/ Most foreign students come from large fast-growing cities in emerging markets. Ninety-four (94) foreign cities together accounted for more than half of all students on an F-1 visa between 2008 and 2012. Seoul, Beijing, Shanghai, Hyderabad and Riyadh are the five foreign cities that sent the most higher education students to the United States during that time. Foreign students disproportionately study STEM and business fields. Two-thirds of foreign students pursuing a bachelor’s or higher degree are in science, technology, engineering, mathematics (STEM) or business, management and marketing fields, versus 48 percent of students in the United States. Both large (San Jose, Calif.) and small (Beaumont-Port Arthur, Texas) metro areas figure among those with the highest shares of their foreign students in STEM disciplines. STEM education is a gateway to challenging climate change—teaches students to develop technologyKrajcik and Delen 17(Krajcik, Joseph, & İbrahim Delen. Lappan-Phillips Professor of Science Education and director of the CREATE for STEM Institute and Assistant Editor in International Journal of Instruction and Usak University Journal of Social Sciences "Engaging learners in STEM education." Eesti Haridusteaduste Ajakiri. Estonian Journal of Education [Online], 5.1 (2017): 35-58. Web. 14 Jul. 2017 SL) There is no doubt that knowledge of science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) is essential for the future of a sustainable planet. STEM education needs to ensure that the workforce is ready for the challenges and opportunities of the future and that we will live in a sustainable and economically viable world. A STEM literate public needs to make wise choices. Evan Heit, the U.S. National Science Foundation division director for Education and Human Resources Division of Research on Learning, stated that “More effective STEM education requires a deeper understanding of how people learn, from childhood to adulthood” (National Science Foundation, 2016). Moreover, living fulfilling and meaningful lives in the 21st century will require individuals to have a deep, useable knowledge of scientific and engineering ideas and practices, as well as the creativity, problem solving, and communication capabilities and judgment to apply STEM ideas. STEM permeates our lives. Mobile technology is just one example of how STEM affects our lives, and how different our lives would be if this technology was taken away. How does Wi-Fi work? How is it that our cell phones can transmit audio and video information over such long distances? How do we provide the energy necessary for these devices? Other critical STEM ideas include: How can we reduce carbon emissions in our society and still experience the many comforts of the 21st century, such as car and air travel? New breakthroughs in science, technology, engineering, and medicine have also improved our lives. On April 13th 2016, the New York Times (Carey, 2016) reported that a quadriplegic young man regained some control of movement in his right hand and fingers by using technology that can transmit his thoughts to his hand and finger muscles. The technology, including a chip implanted in the man’s brain connected by a computer to a sleeve on his arm, enables him to pour from a bottle and stir using a straw. This breakthrough required the collaborative efforts of individuals from various fields, including computer science, bio-technology, and medicine. These individuals need a profound and practical knowledge in these fields, as well as the imagination and creativity of putting together new ideas. Although new developments in STEM fields – genetics, nanoscience, neurosciences technology, and engineering – offer unfathomable opportunities for improving human conditions, these and other scientific, technology, and engineering breakthroughs have also given rise to a myriad of global challenges, like water pollution, health concerns related to obesity, climate change, and ethical concerns about genetically modified foods. Moreover, the careers that will be available for most children alive today will require a practical knowledge of STEM, the ability to collaborate with others, and the capacity for problem-solving, decision making and innovation. Every child will need to develop a deep and meaningful knowledge of STEM whether they plan to enter the STEM field of work or if they plan to enter other professions. In today’s world, we can’t escape the use of STEM. Warming causes extinction, evaluate low probability high risk outcomesPachauri and Meyer 15 (Rajendra K. Pachauri Chairman of the IPCC, Leo Meyer Head, Technical Support Unit IPCC were the editors for this IPCC report, “Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report” http://epic.awi.de/37530/1/IPCC_AR5_SYR_Final.pdf IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp) SPM 2.3 Future risks and impacts caused by a changing climate Climate change will amplify existing risks and create new risks for natural and human systems. Risks are unevenly distributed and are generally greater for disadvantaged people and communities in countries at all levels of development. {2.3} Risk of climate-related impacts results from the interaction of climate-related hazards (including hazardous events and trends) with the vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems, including their ability to adapt. Rising rates and magnitudes of warming and other changes in the climate system, accompanied by ocean acidification, increase the risk of severe, pervasive and in some cases irreversible detrimental impacts. Some risks are particularly relevant for individual regions (Figure SPM.8), while others are global. The overall risks of future climate change impacts can be reduced by limiting the rate and magnitude of climate change, including ocean acidification. The precise levels of climate change sufficient to trigger abrupt and irreversible change remain uncertain, but the risk associated with crossing such thresholds increases with rising temperature (medium confidence). For risk assessment, it is important to evaluate the widest possible range of impacts, including low-probability outcomes with large consequences. {1.5, 2.3, 2.4, 3.3, Box Introduction.1, Box 2.3, Box 2.4} A large fraction of species faces increased extinction risk due to climate change during and beyond the 21st century, especially as climate change interacts with other stressors (high confidence). Most plant species cannot naturally shift their geographical ranges sufficiently fast to keep up with current and high projected rates of climate change in most landscapes; most small mammals and freshwater molluscs will not be able to keep up at the rates projected under RCP4.5 and above in flat landscapes in this century (high confidence). Future risk is indicated to be high by the observation that natural global climate change at rates lower than current anthropogenic climate change caused significant ecosystem shifts and species extinctions during the past millions of years. Marine organisms will face progressively lower oxygen levels and high rates and magnitudes of ocean acidification (high confidence), with associated risks exacerbated by rising ocean temperature extremes (medium confidence). Coral reefs and polar ecosystems are highly vulnerable. Coastal systems and low-lying areas are at risk from sea level rise, which will continue for centuries even if the global mean temperature is stabilized (high confidence). {2.3, 2.4, Figure 2.5} Climate change is projected to undermine food security (Figure SPM.9). Due to projected climate change by the mid-21st century and beyond, global marine species redistribution and marine biodiversity reduction in sensitive regions will challenge the sustained provision of fisheries productivity and other ecosystem services (high confidence). For wheat, rice and maize in tropical and temperate regions, climate change without adaptation is projected to negatively impact production for local temperature increases of 2°C or more above late 20th century levels, although individual locations may benefit (medium confidence). Global temperature increases of ~4°C or more 13 above late 20th century levels, combined with increasing food demand, would pose large risks to food security globally (high confidence). Climate change is projected to reduce renewable surface water and groundwater resources in most dry subtropical regions (robust evidence, high agreement), intensifying competition for water among sectors (limited evidence, medium agreement). {2.3.1, 2.3.2} Until mid-century, projected climate change will impact human health mainly by exacerbating health problems that already exist (very high confidence). Throughout the 21st century, climate change is expected to lead to increases in ill-health in many regions and especially in developing countries with low income, as compared to a baseline without climate change (high confidence). By 2100 for RCP8.5, the combination of high temperature and humidity in some areas for parts of the year is expected to compromise common human activities, including growing food and working outdoors (high confidence). {2.3.2} In urban areas climate change is projected to increase risks for people, assets, economies and ecosystems, including risks from heat stress, storms and extreme precipitation, inland and coastal flooding, landslides, air pollution, drought, water scarcity, sea level rise and storm surges (very high confidence). These risks are amplified for those lacking essential infrastructure and services or living in exposed areas. {2.3.2} Rural areas are expected to experience major impacts on water availability and supply, food security, infrastructure and agricultural incomes, including shifts in the production areas of food and non-food crops around the world (high confidence). {2.3.2} Aggregate economic losses accelerate with increasing temperature (limited evidence, high agreement), but global economic impacts from climate change are currently difficult to estimate. From a poverty perspective, climate change impacts are projected to slow down economic growth, make poverty reduction more difficult, further erode food security and prolong existing and create new poverty traps, the latter particularly in urban areas and emerging hotspots of hunger (medium confidence). International dimensions such as trade and relations among states are also important for understanding the risks of climate change at regional scales. {2.3.2} Climate change is projected to increase displacement of people (medium evidence, high agreement). Populations that lack the resources for planned migration experience higher exposure to extreme weather events, particularly in developing countries with low income. Climate change can indirectly increase risks of violent conflicts by amplifying well-documented drivers of these conflicts such as poverty and economic shocks (medium confidence). {2.3.2} Directory: file -> view view -> Western Europe after wwii view -> Author study: paul fleischman view -> Qpa1 7ela study Guide view -> Arctic Oil/Gas Neg view -> November 1970 Approximately 150,000-500,000 deaths Bhola Cyclone Bangladesh view -> Grade Level: 6 Unit of Study: Caribbean glce view -> Citation: Duffield, Katy view -> Table of Contents Lesson # view -> Chinese Wind Energy Disad Download 172.36 Kb. Share with your friends:
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