The uk will hold the presidency of the Council in November. With several days taken up by the holidays (Eid and Thanksgiving), a retreat and a mission to Timor Leste, the calendar will be very full


Human Rights-Related Developments



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Human Rights-Related Developments

Lebanon will undergo its Universal Periodic Review in the Human Rights Council on 10 November. Submissions for the review have focussed on legislation regarded as discriminatory. Examples include the inability of Lebanese women to pass on their nationality to their spouses or children. Submissions also expressed concern about measures that impact negatively on the situation of approximately 400,000 Palestinian refugees in Lebanon, affecting rights to adequate housing, legal personality and freedom of movement. Concerns about the failure of successive governments since the end of the civil war in 1990 to address past violations including abductions and enforced disappearances are also the subject of submissions.



Key Issues

A key issue for the Council is how to get Israel and Lebanon to move from the status quo—a fragile cessation of hostilities—toward a ceasefire and permanent solution. In this regard the Secretary-General’s 11 August letter cited the 3 August incident as an example of how the relatively calm environment in southern Lebanon can quickly change.

Related issues include regular Israeli overflights and its occupation of Ghajar in violation of resolution 1701 and the fact that Hezbollah maintains significant military capacity in violation of resolutions 1559 and 1701.

Peacekeeper’s freedom of movement so that UNIFIL may fulfil its mandate is a major issue, especially in light of the early July incident and the impact a Tribunal indictment might have in southern Lebanon.

The issue of Sheb’a Farms remains frozen.

Options

The most likely option is to take no action, as has been the practice since April 2008, which was the last time the Council issued a presidential statement on resolution 1701.

However, keeping in mind that the 3 August incident was the most serious confrontation since 2006, a statement may be an option, calling for:

• full implementation of resolution 1701; and

• strengthened respect for the Blue Line.

In particular, the Council could call for confidence-building measures such as:

• expedited progress on demarcation of the Blue Line; and

• Israeli withdrawal from Ghajar.



Council Dynamics

In light of the current political environment, Council members agree that UNIFIL’s role in maintaining stability and helping avoid tension between Israel and Lebanon is especially important.

After the 3 August incident the Council had agreed in principal to meet again on the issue using the informal interactive dialogue format to allow for Israel’s participation. However, it is now unlikely such a meeting will take place since both sides were able to publicly air their views during the UNIFIL renewal.

Most Council members agree that arms smuggling and disarmament remain key issues but seem to accept that this is only likely to happen in the context of an inter-Lebanese dialogue and improvement on the Israel-Syria track, which is unlikely to gain any immediate traction due to strained Israeli-Turkish relations.

Council members seem to anticipate increasing tension in Lebanon as indictments from the Tribunal approach and are watching developments closely. During the October open debate, several Council members also referred to the Tribunal expressing support for the Secretary-General’s statement and concern for Lebanese political stability. Although at time of writing information was still being gathered about the 27 October incident involving Tribunal staff, a Council press statement seemed to be a possible response.

France is the lead country on Lebanon in the Council.



UN Documents

Selected Council Resolutions

S/RES/1937 (30 August 2010) renewed UNIFIL until 31 August 2011.

S/RES/1757 (30 May 2007) established the Special Tribunal for Lebanon.

S/RES/1701 (11 August 2006) called for a cessation of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel.

S/RES/1559 (2 September 2004) urged withdrawal of all foreign forces from Lebanon, disarmament of all militias, and extension of the Lebanese government’s control over all Lebanese territory.

Selected Security Council Meeting Records

S/PV.6404 and res. 1 (18 October 2010) was the latest open debate on the Middle East.

S/PV.6375 (30 August 2010) was the UNIFIL renewal.

Selected Secretary-General’s Reports

S/2010/538 (18 October 2010) was the latest report on resolution 1559.

S/2010/352 (1 July 2010) was the latest report on resolution 1701.

Selected Letters

S/2010/506 (1 October 2010) was from Lebanon regarding the IDF firing toward the LAF on 20 September.

S/2010/468 (7 September 2010) was from Israel regarding the 3 September explosion in Shehabiyeh in southern Lebanon.

S/2010/460 (1 September 2010) was from Lebanon alleging an Israeli spying network in Lebanon.

S/2010/430 (11 August 2010) was from the Secretary-General following up his July 2010 report on resolution 1701.

S/2010/415 and S/2010/418 (3 August 2010) were letters, respectively from Israel and Lebanon, regarding the 3 August exchange of fire on the Blue Line.



Selected Press Statement

SC/9976 (9 July 2010) called on all parties to respect UNIFIL’s freedom of movement.



Other Relevant Facts

Special Coordinator for Lebanon

Michael Williams (UK)



Special Envoy for the Implementation of Security Council Resolution 1559

Terje Roed-Larsen (Norway)



UNIFIL Force Commander

Maj.-Gen. Alberto Asarta Cuevas (Spain)



Size and Composition of UNIFIL as of 30 August 2010

Authorised: 15,000 troops

Current: 11,449 military personnel

Troop Contributors: Bangladesh, Belgium, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Croatia, Cyprus, Denmark, El Salvador, France, FYR of Macedonia, Germany, Ghana, Greece, Guatemala, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Malaysia, Nepal, Nigeria, Portugal, Qatar, Republic of Korea, Sierra Leone, Slovenia, Spain, Tanzania and Turkey



Duration

March 1978 to present; mandate expires 31 August 2011



Cost

1 July 2010 to 30 June 2011: $518.71 million (A/C.5/64/19)



Democratic Republic of the Congo

Expected Council Action

In November the Council will consider the renewal of the DRC sanctions regime and the mandate of the group of experts, which expire on 30 November. The DRC Sanctions Committee is scheduled to meet in mid November to discuss the final report of the group of experts.

It is also possible that experts will be discussing new listing requests for the sanctions committee, for possible approval in December.

The Council is unlikely to address the “mapping” report released by the UNHCHR.

The mandate of the peacekeeping operation in the DRC, MONUSCO, expires on 30 June 2011.

Key Recent Developments

On 14 October the Secretary-General’s Special Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict, Margot Wallström, briefed the Council. Wallström expressed concern over recent reports on the involvement of soldiers of the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (FARDC) in rapes and looting. She urged the sanctions committee to list “Colonel” Serafim of the rebel Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR). Serafim is a counterpart of the recently apprehended “Lieutenant Colonel” Mayele, both allegedly responsible for the recent mass rapes in Walikale (please see our 3 September Update Report for more details). Wallström added that further analysis is needed to examine the nexus between the illicit exploitation of natural resources by armed groups and sexual violence. Wallström urged the Council to provide the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO) with the proper resources to carry out the mandate to protect civilians. Finally, she called on member states to enact laws requiring companies to disclose whether their products contain minerals originating from the DRC.

During the meeting, Wallström was asked if she was able to obtain information about Bosco Ntaganda, de facto military head of the National Congress for the Defense of the People (CNDP). He has been listed by the sanctions committee and the International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued a warrant for his arrest. Wallström replied that she has been given assurances by the DRC government that they are not cooperating with Ntaganda, and she could not obtain any further information.

On 15 October, Roger Meece, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of MONUSCO, briefed the Council. Meece said the recent events in Walikale had compelled MONUSCO to conduct a major internal review of the protection programs carried out by the force. The increased military presence of MONUSCO in the eastern regions, improved radio and cell phone communications and use of more interpreters will be measures that can be taken to increase security in the region and communication with local population.

Meece further stressed that building the capacity of the country’s military, justice system and police force is needed in order to preserve the progress noted in the report. Meece said that MONUSCO and the FARDC have not been cooperating with Ntaganda, despite the latter’s statements.

The Secretary-General’s 8 October report said that the security situation in the eastern regions remains a serious concern. Repeated attacks by armed groups against civilians continue. (In a related development, on 11 October, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported that the security situation in North and South Kivu provinces continues to deteriorate, with daily reports of assassination, rape and extortion.) The report also noted the recent withdrawal of nine helicopters provided to MONUSCO by India, and the expected withdrawal of an additional four attack helicopters by March 2011. These helicopters account for a large part of MONUSCO’s air capability. The report also said that MONUSCO’s efforts were hampered by the lack of Security Council authorisation to equip newly formed police battalions, an issue raised by Meece before the Council.

The report briefly addresses the joint DRC-MONUSCO security assessment process outlined in resolution 1925. Since its adoption 1,494 troops have been repatriated from the DRC. A joint consolidated report is expected shortly, the conclusions of which will be reflected in the next Secretary-General’s report. In his briefing, Meece added that no significant adjustment in MONUSCO’s deployment would be indicated in the report.

Finally, according to the report, the Independent Electoral Commission has announced that the first round presidential and national legislative elections are set to take place on 27 November 2011. Provincial legislative, senatorial and gubernatorial elections are all scheduled for 2012 and local elections for 2013. MONUSCO has begun assisting the electoral authorities with voter registration and will need to continue to provide logistical and technical support to the process.

The group of experts on sanctions was supposed to submit its final report on October 20. At press time the report had been circulated to Council members but not yet released publicly. It is reported to include due diligence guidelines for private entities conducting business in the DRC, in light of the sanctions regime.

On 1 October, a report resulting from a “mapping” exercise by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (UNHCHR) was released, documenting serious violations of international human rights during the period from 1993 to 2003.

Several developments regarding criminal prosecutions occurred in October. In addition to the 6 October arrest of “Colonel” Mayele on 8 October, the Appeals Chamber of the ICC decided to resume the trial of Thomas Lubanga Dyilo, founder and leader of the Union of Congolese Patriots in the Ituri region. On 11 October, Callixte Mbarushimana, a Rwandan rebel leader, was arrested in France on an ICC arrest warrant on suspicion of war crimes and crimes against humanity allegedly committed in the eastern DRC last year. On 19 October, the Appeals Chamber confirmed the proceedings against Jean-Pierre Bemba Gombo, a former senior official of the DRC charged with war crimes allegedly committed in the neighbouring Central African Republic.

Violence has also continued in other parts of the DRC. On 15 October, the UN Refugee Agency reported increased attacks and population displacement in central Africa, including the DRC, caused by the Lord’s Resistance Army.

On 23 October, some fifty men attacked a UN peacekeeping base in North Kivu province. Eight of the perpetrators were killed in the incident, while two others were injured. A joint MONUSCO-DRC investigation is underway to establish the identities and motives of the attackers who, according to early indications, appear to be part of the Mai-Mai militia group.

Human Rights-Related Developments

A UNHCHR report mapping the most serious human rights violations in the DRC from 1993 to 2003 has caused controversy because of allegations of genocide during the Congo Civil war. The objective of the mapping exercise was to formulate options to assist the Government of the DRC in identifying appropriate transitional justice mechanisms to deal with the legacy of these violations. The publication of the report was delayed until 1 October 2010. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon met with officials in Rwanda on 7 and 8 September to discuss their concerns.



Key Issues

A key issue for the Council in November is the role of sanctions in addressing problems facing the DRC, such as overall insecurity in large parts of the country and endemic sexual violence, and the related issue of how to enhance this tool’s effectiveness amidst growing calls to deter perpetrators of such violence.

A related issue, highlighted by recent events, is the way in which the tools the Council have created have become trapped in bureaucratic silos limiting (such as peacekeeping operation mandates, expert panels and targeted sanctions), their ability to coherently address the situation on the ground, and the Council’s capacity for practical oversight to ensure these tools are used.

It remains to be seen whether the issues regarding the renewal of the mandate of the Sudan panel of experts (for details please see the Sudan brief in this Forecast), will be a factor in achieving agreement in the Council for the renewal of the DRC sanctions regime without compromising the independence of the group of experts.



Options

Options for the Council include:

• renewing the sanctions regime and the mandate of the group of experts;

• modifying the sanctions regime and/or the mandate of the group of experts; or

• not renewing the mandate of the group of experts (a less likely option at this time).

Council Dynamics

At press time it was unclear whether the Chinese abstention on the renewal of the mandate of the Sudan panel of experts will affect Council dynamics regarding the DRC sanctions. Council members may try to find a balance between ensuring that the content of the final report is supported by all Council members while not compromising the independence of the group of experts.

There have also been some continuing differences between members, such as China and Brazil, and others about the balance between MONUSCO’s role in capacity-building and reform activities, as opposed to a focus on peacekeeping advocated by others.

On the response to the recent events in Walikale and other acts of violence, some Council members believe that the response should be based, first and foremost, on the initiative of the DRC government and its suggested course of action. They believe that initiatives coming out of Kinshasa have a higher probability of gaining traction. Others remain profoundly sceptical that Kinshasa is yet in a position to grapple effectively with these issues.

With respect to the issue of police equipment, some members were uneasy about the language used in the Secretary-General’s report and by his special representative regarding the Council’s role in obtaining such equipment and would like MONUSCO to make more of an effort to mobilise donors.

The lead country is France.



UN Documents

Selected Security Council Resolutions

S/RES/1925 (28 May 2010) extended the mandate of MONUC until 30 June 2010 and decided that from 1 July 2010, MONUC shall bear the title of MONUSCO and shall be deployed until 30 June 2011.

S/RES/1896 (30 November 2009) extended the DRC sanctions and the mandate of the group of experts to 30 November 2010.

Latest Presidential Statement

S/PRST/2010/17 (17 September 2010) urged the DRC government to prosecute the perpetrators of the mass rapes that occurred in eastern DRC in late July and August.



Latest Secretary-General’s Report

S/2010/512 (8 October 2010) Selected Meeting Records S/PV.6403 (15 October 2010) was the briefing by Roger Meece.

S/PV.6400 (14 October 2010) was the briefing by Margot Wallström.

Selected Security Council Press Statements

SC/10016 (26 August 2010) expressed the Council’s outrage at the mass rapes in eastern DRC.

SC/10010 (18 August 2010) condemned the attacks on peacekeepers in Kirumba.

Other Relevant Facts

Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of Mission

Roger Meece (US)


MONUSCO Force Commander

Lt.-Gen. Chander Prakash (India)



Size, Composition and Cost of Mission

Strength as of 30 August 2010: 17,625 troops, 716 military observers, 1,203 police, 973 international civilian personnel, 2,783 local civilian staff and 598 UN volunteers

Approved budget (1 July 2010-30 June 2011): $1.369 million

Duration

30 November 1999 to present; mandate expires on 30 June 2011



Protection of Civilians

Expected Council Action

In November, the Council is expecting a report from the Secretary-General and is scheduled to hold its biannual open debate on protection of civilians in armed conflict. The debate is expected to feature a briefing by the new Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, Valerie Amos and possibly also by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navanethem Pillay as well as the Director-General of the International Committee of the Red Cross, Yves Daccord. A presidential statement is also expected.

(For a more detailed analysis of the Council’s recent work on protection of civilians both thematically and in country-specific situations, please see our upcoming third Cross-Cutting Report on Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict.)

Key Recent Developments

The Council’s previous debate on protection of civilians, in July 2010, featured briefings by the Secretary-General, then-Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs John Holmes and Pillay.

The Secretary-General emphasised the importance of sustained political support by the Council to ensure implementation of peacekeeping mandates. He also stressed the need for a stronger common understanding of what protection of civilians entails in practice. With reference to Chad and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Secretary-General warned against the premature termination of peacekeeping missions and said benchmarks on protection of civilians should be achieved before the withdrawal of peacekeepers. He also highlighted accountability as a key challenge, specifically mentioning Sri Lanka and Guinea.

Holmes expressed concern that little had improved on the ground, highlighting in particular the situation for internally displaced persons. He reiterated his call for the Council to respect and promote engagement with non-state armed groups to improve their compliance with international humanitarian and human rights law. Other issues he addressed included protection mandates in peacekeeping operations, humanitarian access and the effects of explosive weapons on civilians. He said more research was needed on these effects and urged the Council to begin a dialogue “on ways to tackle this emerging issue.” Finally, Holmes urged the Council to take a “robust approach” to accountability issues and also floated the idea of establishing a permanent mechanism in the UN system to conduct inquiries into serious allegations of violations of international humanitarian and human rights law more or less automatically to prevent issues from being politicised.

Pillay also emphasised accountability as a key issue for protecting civilians. She argued that the establishment of commissions of inquiry was “amongst the most significant actions taken by the Council for the protection of civilians” and called for more frequent use of such mechanisms.

Also relevant to the protection of civilians agenda was a Council debate on 29 June on promoting and strengthening the rule of law in the maintenance of international peace and security. In a presidential statement emphasising its commitment to mediation and the peaceful settlement of disputes, the Council recognised respect for international humanitarian law as an essential component of the rule of law in conflict situations and reaffirmed that the protection of civilians should be included in any conflict resolution strategy. It also called for all parties to armed conflict to respect international law applicable to civilians, stressed the importance of fighting impunity and expressed its willingness to act in this regard.

On 26 October the Council held an open debate on women, peace and security. It adopted a presidential statement in which i.a. it strongly condemned all violations of applicable international law committed against women and girls and expressed its intention to uphold accountability for such crimes. It also supported “taking forward, including by relevant UN entities”, the set of indicators proposed by the Secretary-General to track implementation of resolution 1325.

The Council’s informal expert group on protection of civilians has met three times since the July debate. It discussed the mandate renewals for the AU/UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur and the UN Assistance Mission in Iraq in July and the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan in September.

On 1 August 2010 the Convention on Cluster Munitions entered into force. As of 26 October, 43 countries had ratified the Convention.

On 19 August 2010, the 2005 Optional Protocol to the Convention on the Safety of UN and Associated Personnel entered into force.



Key Issues

At this stage, a key issue for the Council is whether there has been satisfactory progress in implementing the operative requests of resolution 1894, such as:

• development of an operational concept on protection of civilians for peacekeeping missions;

• mission-wide planning, pre-deployment training and senior leadership training on protection in UN operations with protection mandates and training by troop and police-contributing countries;

• incorporation of protection strategies into the overall mission implementation plans for all peacekeeping operations with protection mandates;

• inclusion of protection indicators in benchmarks to measure and review progress in the implementation of peacekeeping mandates;

• systematic monitoring and analysis by the Secretary-General of constraints on humanitarian access;

• more comprehensive and detailed information relating to protection of civilians, including on protection-related incidents and actions taken by parties, in the Secretary-General’s country-specific reports; and

• development of guidance for UN operations and other relevant missions on protection reporting with a view to streamlining such reporting and enhancing the Council’s monitoring and oversight.

Another key question is the new issues raised by the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and others, such as the impact on civilians of explosive weapons or compensation to civilian victims of conflict and the Secretary-General’s earlier proposal to consider issues related to compliance with international humanitarian law by non-state armed groups. 

A further issue is the Council’s own working methods and tools at its disposal, such as the informal expert group on protection, and whether these can be improved. 


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