Ticker: goog sector: Technology Industry

My recommendation for Google is a BUY.

Google Inc. maintains an index of Websites and other online content, and makes this information freely available through its search engine to anyone with an Internet connection. The Company’s automated search technology helps people obtain nearly instant access to relevant information from its online index. The Company generates revenue primarily by delivering online advertising. Businesses use its AdWords program to promote their products and services with targeted advertising. In addition, the thousands of third-party Websites that comprise the Google Network use its AdSense program to deliver relevant ads that generate revenue and enhance the user experience. In September 2009, the Company acquired ReCAPTCHA Inc., a spin-off of Carnegie Mellon University's Computer Science Department. In February 2010, the Company acquired Aardvark and On2 Technologies, Inc. (Google Finance)

The product list is very comprehensive which includes the following: Google.com for search and personalization, which provides Google Web Search, Google Images, Google Books, Google Scholar, Google Finance, Google News, Google Videos, Google Blog Search, iGoogle and Personalized Search, Google Product Search, Google Merchant Center, Google Custom Search, Google Trends, Google Music Search, and Google Webmaster Tools. The company’s products also comprise Google Docs, Google Calendar, Gmail, Google Groups, Google Reader, Orkut, Blogger, Google Sites, and YouTube.

In addition, it offers Google Toolbar, Google Chrome, Google Chrome OS, Google Pack, Picasa, and Google Desktop; and Google GEO product line comprising Google Local Search, Google Maps, Panoramio, Google Earth, Google SketchUp, Google 3D Warehouse, and Google Building Maker Google has also ventured in mobile industry through its proprietary software called Android. Also, it has Google Mobile, which are mobile-specific features; Google Checkout, an online shopping service; etc. Based on my valuations, this company stock is undervalued and I recommend a strong buy for a long term value creation.

Company Profile:

Google is a global technology leader focused on improving the ways people connect with information. Innovations in web search and advertising have made Google website a top internet property and a world recognized brand. Basically they maintain a large index of web sites and other online content, which is made freely available via the search engine to anyone with an internet connection. Revenues are generated primarily by delivering relevant, cost-effective online advertising. Businesses use the AdWords program to promote their products and services with targeted advertising. In addition, the thousands of third-party web sites that comprise the Google Network use Google’s AdSense program to deliver relevant ads that generate revenue and enhance the user experience.

Google Web Search enables people find what they are looking for on the Web. The Google.com search experience also includes advanced search functionality, which enables users to construct complex queries; Web page translation, which supports 51 languages and automatically translates between any two of these languages, with a total of 2,550 language translation pairs; integrated tools, such as a spell checker, a calculator, a dictionary and currency and measurement converters; cached links, which provides snapshots of Web pages taken when the pages were indexed, letting users view Web pages that are no longer available; movie, music and weather information, which enables users to find movie reviews and show times, information about artists, songs and albums and weather conditions and forecasts, and news, finance, maps, image, video, book, blogs and groups information. It also displays results from other Google products, including Google News, Google Finance, Google Maps, Google Image Search, Google Video, Google Book Search, Google Blog Search and Google Groups. Google Image Search is the Company’s searchable index of images found across the Web. It offers additional features, such as searching by image size, format, coloration and image type, such as photos, clipart, faces and line drawings.

Google Sites allows users to create, update and publish content online without technical expertise, with control over who can see and update the site. Google Sites supports a variety of information, such as videos, calendars, presentations, spreadsheets, discussions and texts. YouTube is an online community that lets users worldwide upload, share, watch, rate and comment on videos. YouTube offers a range of video and interactive formats for advertisers to reach their intended audience.

Google Local Search powers local queries on Google.com, Google Maps, Google Earth and mobile. Google Local Search provides a search experience by combining business listings with the sources of ratings, reviews, photos and other information on the Web. Google Maps helps users explore the world from their desktop or phone using global mapping data, satellite imagery and Google Street View imagery. Google provides its own map data for the United States and certain other countries, including more than 181 countries and territories where users author and improve Google Maps using Google Map Maker. Panoramio enables users to upload photos and locate them on the earth using Google Maps. Google Earth offers an immersive, three-dimensional (3D) way to explore its mapping data and imagery. Google SketchUp is a free tool that enables users to model buildings in 3D. Using Google 3D Warehouse, SketchUp can be used as a tool for populating Google Earth with 3D building models.

Android is a free, open-source mobile software platform that allows developers to create applications for mobile devices and for handset manufacturers to install. Google Mobile extends its products and services by providing mobile-specific features, including voice input and location-based technology, to mobile phone users. The Company also offers mobile ad products spanning its advertiser and publisher-focused efforts, Google AdWords, and Google AdSense. Specific mobile ad optimizations include Smartphone Targeting and AdSense for Mobile Apps.

Google Checkout is a service it offers for its users, merchants and advertisers to make online shopping and payments more streamlined and secure. For users, Google Checkout provides a friendly interface to make payments without disclosing their credit card numbers or other sensitive financial information, and to maintain a centralized record of all their purchases. For merchants, Google Checkout provides a payment mechanism that has industry-leading fraud prevention, and increased conversion and transaction completion rates.

Google Labs is Google’s test bed for its engineers and adventurous Google users. On Google Labs, the Company posts product prototypes and solicit feedback on how the technology could be used or improved. Google Labs examples include Fast Flip a Google News feature that delivers fast overviews of headline pages of top newspapers in rich visual format, and Google Image Swirl, a new experimental feature that organizes images into visually and semantically related groups and presents them in an exploratory interface.

Google AdWords is an auction-based advertising program that lets advertisers deliver relevant ads targeted to search queries or Web content across Google sites and through the Web sites of its Google Network, which is the network of online and offline third parties that use its advertising programs to deliver relevant ads with their search results and content. AdWords is accessible to advertisers in 41 different interface languages. Advertisers in the AdWords program create text-based or display ads, bid on the keywords that will trigger the display of their ads and set daily spending budgets. AdWords features an automated online signup process that lets advertisers implement ad campaigns on Google properties and the Web sites of its Google Network members. Ads are ranked for display in AdWords based on a combination of the maximum cost-per-click pricing set by the advertiser, and click-through rates and other factors used to determine the relevance of the ads.

Google AdSense program enables Websites that are part of the Google Network to deliver AdWords ads that are relevant to the search results or content on their pages. Google AdSense promotes effective revenue generation by providing Google Network members access to Google’s base of advertisers and their broad collection of ads. The Google AdSense program includes Google AdSense for Search for Internet companies that want to target search audiences; Google AdSense for Content, which lets Websites generate revenue from advertising by serving relevant AdWords ads targeted to Web content, and Google AdSense for Domains, which allows owners of undeveloped domains that receive traffic from users typing generic terms into browsers or search to generate revenue from relevant advertising.

Display advertising comprises the videos, images, banners, Adobe Flash, and other interactive ads that run across the Web. Google serves display ads across the Google Network. It also offers a variety of display ads, such as videos, images, and Flash ads on YouTube. Google AdWords auction system lets advertisers automatically deliver relevant, targeted advertising.

Google Apps provides hosted communication, collaboration and security tools for organizations such as businesses, governments and schools. Google Apps includes messaging features such as Gmail, Google Calendar and Google Talk, and Google Groups collaboration features, such as Google Docs, Google Video, Google Sites, and eDiscovery/Compliance powered by Postini. Google Apps is available in Standard, Education, Partner and Premier Editions. Google Search Appliance family of products serves businesses of all sizes, ranging from small businesses (with the Google Mini) as well as larger organizations and government agencies with the Search Appliance. Some features of the Google Search Appliance include integration with advanced corporate security protocols, integration with other enterprise applications, such as content management systems, portals and other systems, and real-time search of business applications. (Reuters.com, Annual Report 2008, Morning Star Report, and Dow Jones Google Report 2010.)

Google, YouTube, DoubleClick, DART, AdSense, AdWords, Gmail, I’m Feeling Lucky, PageRank, Blogger, orkut, Picasa, SketchUp and Postini are registered trademarks in the U.S. Our unregistered trademarks include, Blog*Spot, Jaiku, Android, Open Handset Alliance, OpenSocial, Panoramio, and Knol.

Advertising revenues made up 99% of Google revenues in 2006 and 2007 and 97% of revenues in 2008. Google AdWords is an automated online program that enables advertisers to place targeted text-based and display ads on google web sites and its Google Network members’ web sites. Most of the AdWords customers pay google

on a cost-per-click basis, which means that an advertiser pays us only when a user clicks on one of its ads. Google also offer AdWords on a cost-per-impression basis that enables advertisers to pay it based on the number of times their ads appear on its web sites and on Google Network members’ web sites as specified by the advertiser.

Google.com has been a world leader in getting hits each day, each single moment around the world. It has become the no.1 choice of millions of people all around the world. Also, with internet usage to double every five years, the potential of Google to reap benefits are enormous in the coming years if not decades atleast.

We can see both revenues as well as earnings per share have increased considerably high within the last three years. Google has achieved a phenomenal growth over the last five years as seen below:

Valuation Ratios:

Beta of 1.15 shows that Google is relatively less riskier than the sector average of 1.26. Also, the P/E ratios are in much better shape as compared to both industry and sector wise as well.

Growth Rates:

We can see from the above table that how Google has outperformed S&P 500 as well as industry and sector averages.

We can see from the above table that Google doesn`t have any debt. Achieving such a huge growth without debt exposure is commendable. Also, Google is sitting pretty with lots of cash in hand to cover its even short term liabilities. This reduces the risk tremendously from an investment point of view.

We can see how gross and operating margins for Google are far better than its peers over the last year as well as last five years.

With regards to efficiency, we can see Google is using its assets both capital and human efficiently to turn out revenues as well.

Management has been extremely effective in generating and utilizing resources to create value for the shareholders as well. The ratios above signify that Google has very sound strategy and business model that is sure to create value for its shareholders in the long term.

Google is the leader in this industry and is far ahead of its competitors as shown by the table below.

We can see that Google`s sales, inspite of severe recession in 2008 and 2009, increased considerably, a factor which shows how important the company`s product line is for the consumers.

Revenues by Geography

If we divide these revenues by geography we can see that Google is starting to increase its revenue through countries outside US and UK. This is a good sign, especially as demand for internet services, especially in growing economies is expected to double every five to seven years in the near future. The annual report has divided this into region wise segmentation:



Research and Development:

The other thing which Google is doing right is investing in research and development, a key factor for maintaining its competitive power. The research and development ($ in millions) has been

(Annual Report 2008)

We can see how Google has far outperformed NASDAQ and S&P500 over the last 6 years.

Long Term Performance of Google vs Microsoft, Yahoo and S&P 500

We can see how Google has been a front leader in creating shareholder value over the last six years. Looking at the chart we see that even giants like Microsoft and Yahoo has remained flat over the years. These data, graphs and all the stuff written above in the entire report has been taken from various sources such as google.com, yahoo finance, morning star, Dow Jones Google report, CNBC, reuters.com, Google annual report 2008 and others.

1. 
   Balance Sheet
   

2. 
   Income Statement:
   

3. 
   Cash Flow Statement:
   

I used the discounted cash flow model to calculate my intrinsic value of Google. I calculated the discount rate using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). I used an average beta of 1.15 (1.08 Yahoo,1.15- Reuters, 1.15 Google), a risk free rate of 3.88 (10 year day t-bill rate, WSJ), and a market return of 11%. With these assumptions the discount rate would be:

CAPM = 3.88+ 1.15(11- 3.88)

CAPM R= 12.06%

Assuming a modest average growth rate of 10% / year until 2019 and then growing at @5% / annum, we see that this stock is grossly undervalued as shown below:

Using these numbers, the intrinsic value works out to be between $678 to $1599. Since the stock is currently trading at $576, it shows that Google is undervalued and I recommend a BUY.

Analyst Opinions: Reuters.com

ADP’s strategy over the past two years has been to consolidate its leadership position in the industry through means of acquisitions and international expansion and acquisition of HRinterax is just one recent example of it. Also, ss the economy recovers, ADP is in a

We can see how analysts have strong opinion of buying this stock for the long term investment. This is so as Google has always come ahead of their projections related to sales, profit and earning as shown below.

Thus, I strongly recommend a buy on this stock for value creation in the long term.

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