Tpp will pass during the lame duck

Obama needs all his PC to get it done

Gary Hufbauer, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics: “While Hillary Clinton may have reversed her prior enthusiastic support of the TPP, if elected president, she can rediscover the geopolitical virtues that led her to embrace the TPP project when she served as secretary of state. And Clinton can toss in a couple of ‘side agreements’—reminiscent of NAFTA—to nudge the TPP closer to her concept of a gold standard. But between now and 2017, the TPP must survive a perilous journey through Congress. The timelines specified under Trade Promotion Authority mean that the soonest President Obama could sign the TPP text will be late January 2016. Meanwhile, Obama will need to agree with his Congressional counterparts— Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and probable House Speaker Paul Ryan—on the text of the TPP implementing legislation, including any ‘sweeteners’ inserted to attract the votes of wavering congressmen. Then, in the midst of the presidential election campaign, the House and Senate must vote the implementing legislation up or down, without amendments. If he sees no clear shot at reaching ‘yes’, President Obama can elect to not submit implementing legislation to Congress, and instead leave the task of securing ratification to his successor. On balance, it appears that President Obama will use every ounce of his dwindling political capital stock to secure Congressional approval of the TPP in 2016 and, at the same time, secure his own historic legacy. But if the critical vote is postponed until 2017—when ratification seems all but certain, provided that Sanders and Trump remain far from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue—the TPP will still enjoy a fine launch into the annals of path-breaking trade agreements.”

The plan costs PC—Engagement with China causes intra-party factions amongst Democrats and spurs Republican opposition

Both the Democratic and Republican Parties are internally divided over China. On the left, some Democrats argue for a pro-China policy of engagement to better integrate China into the global economic, political, and security orders. Other Democrats, concerned about human rights issues, advocate for tougher China policies. For instance, California congresswoman Nancy Pelosi, quoted above, has been a frequent critic of Chinese human rights abuses. Yet other Democrats on Capitol Hill, many from heavily blue collar districts, join Big Labor in condemning unfair Chinese trade practices and advocating tougher U.S. trade policies towards China. On the right, Republicans in Washington are equally divided on China policy. Business conservatives have historically promoted a friendlier China policy conducive to increased trade, investment, and profits. For instance, the U.S.-China Business Council and AmCham China, which lobby on behalf of U.S. companies doing business with China, have worked closely with many Republicans on the Hill to support pro-China and block anti-China legislation. Military hawks and Christian conservatives, however, usually argue for tougher China policies. Congressman Randy Forbes of Virginia, quoted in the epigraph, serves on the House Armed Services Committee and cochairs the House’s China Caucus, and frequently promotes tougher positions on China. New Jersey congressman Christopher Smith, who has held dozens of hearings on Capitol Hill to deplore China’s lack of religious freedoms, has also advocated a tougher U.S. China policy, but for very different reasons.

[Insert Impact scenario of your choice]