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Predicted track vector : Initial (at T0) to predicted (at T0+24H or T0+36H) positions



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Predicted track vector : Initial (at T0) to predicted (at T0+24H or T0+36H) positions



3.7 Japan


3.7.1 Global Spectral Model (GSM 9603)


All the statistics shown below are made for tropical cyclones in the western north Pacific during the years of 1996-1998 and are calculated against the TC RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center Best Track data.


  1. GSM – Mean position error and skill compared with persistence (PER)



TIME

MODEL


RECURVATURE

ALL


BEFORE

DURING

AFTER

T+12

(num. of cases)



GSM

PER


Skill

101.0

96.5


-4.6%

(397)


102.1

107.2


4.7%

(160)


112.1

123.0


8.9%

(245)


104.6

106.7


2.9%

(802)


T+24

(num. of cases)



GSM

PER


Skill

156.0

184.3


15.4%

(352)


155.1

203.2


23.7%

(143)


175.3

273.3


35.9%

(234)


162.0

216.5


25.2%

(729)


T+36

(num. of cases)



GSM

PER


Skill

201.3

281.0


28.4%

(308)


202.8

321.7


36.9%

(128)


236.5

447.7


47.2%

(220)


213.4

344.8


38.1%

(656)


T+48

(num. of cases)



GSM

PER


Skill

239.2

402.1


40.5%

(264)


249.4

432.7


42.3%

(113)


310.9

636.1


51.1%

(211)


266.9

491.9


45.7%

(588)


T+60

(num. of cases)



GSM

PER


Skill

287.1

507.3


44.3%

(222)


287.9

572.9


49.7%

(102)


408.9

826.3


50.5%

(203)


334.2

642.8


48.0%

(527)


T+72

(num. of cases)



GSM

PER


Skill

332.6

613.3


45.8%

(187)


344.6

730.2


52.8%

(88)


490.8

1001.5


51.0%

(184)


398.3

791.4


49.7%

(459)


T+84

(num. of cases)



GSM

PER


Skill

371.3

726.7


48.9%

(155)


404.9

798.1


49.3%

(74)


585.1

1234.4


52.6%

(174)


469.8

959.0


51.0%

(403)



Table 3.7.1.1: Mean error (km) of GSM central positions, stratified according to stage of motion with respect to recurvature, and skill (%) compared with persistence. ‘Before’, ‘During’, and ‘After’ mean TC’s moving to directions in 180-320 deg, 320-10deg, and 10-180 deg, respectively. ‘Skill’ is defined as 100 x (PER-GSM)/PER.
(ii) GSM – Distribution of central position errors


Error (km)

Number of predictions




T+24

T+48

T+72

> 1000

0

1

16

950 – 1000

0

0

2

900 – 950

0

0

1

850 – 900

1

4

4

800 – 850

0

1

8

750 – 800

0

2

12

700 – 750

0

3

11

650 – 700

0

5

14

600 – 650

0

3

11

550 – 600

1

16

26

500 – 550

3

18

25

450 – 500

6

36

22

400 – 450

10

23

43

350 – 400

25

40

34

300 – 350

33

63

36

250 – 300

56

66

47

200 – 250

71

68

42

150 – 200

135

89

36

100 – 150

159

58

32

50 – 100

143

62

31

0 – 50

86

30

6

Table 3.7.1.2: Distribution of GSM central position errors (km), stratified in ranges of 50 km.



(iii) GSM – Distribution of central pressure errors


Error (hPa)

Number of predictions




T+24

T+48

T+72

>42.5

99

126

115

37.5 - 42.5

37

24

35

32.5 - 37.5

32

41

26

27.5 - 32.5

47

35

39

22.5 - 27.5

58

54

39

17.5 - 22.5

73

58

39

12.5 - 17.5

100

64

34

7.5 - 12.5

129

76

38

2.5 - 7.5

100

55

43

-2.5 - 2.5

48

42

30

-7.5 - -2.5

5

8

19

-12.5 - -7.5

1

5

1

-17.5 - -12.5

0

0

0

-22.5 - -17.5

0

0

1

-27.5 - -22.5

0

0

0

-32.5 - -27.5

0

0

0

-37.5 - -32.5

0

0

0

-42.5 - -37.5

0

0

0

< -42.5

0

0

0

Table 3.7.1.3: Distribution of GSM central pressure errors (hPa), stratified in ranges of 5 hPa.



(iv) GSM – Distribution of maximum sustained wind errors



Error (ms-1)

Number of predictions




T+24

T+48

T+72

> 18.75

6

6

4

16.25 - 18.75

1

1

3

13.75 - 16.25

6

4

3

11.25 - 13.75

12

4

3

8.75 - 11.25

5

3

4

6.25 - 8.75

2

0

0

3.75 - 6.25

0

0

0

1.25 - 3.75

0

0

0

-1.25 - 1.25

2

1

4

-3.75 - -1.25

13

13

12

-6.25 - -3.75

61

39

23

-8.75 - -6.25

101

53

40

-11.25 - -8.75

100

61

39

-13.75 - -11.25

77

67

29

-16.25 - -13.75

106

64

44

-18.75 - -16.25

121

123

101

< - 18.75 - -18.75

116

149

150

Table 3.7.1.4: Distribution of GSM maximum sustained wind errors (ms-1), stratified in ranges of 2.5 ms-1.


3.7.2 Typhoon Model (TYM 9603)
All the statistics shown below are made for tropical cyclones in the western north Pacific during the three years of 1996 – 1998 and are calculated against the TC RSMC Tokyo – Typhoon Center Best Track data.



  1. TYM – Mean position error and skill compared with persistence (PER)



TIME

MODEL


RECURVATURE

ALL


BEFORE

DURING

AFTER

T+12

(num. of cases)



TYM

PER


Skill

101.7

102.3


0.6%

(379)


99.6

107.3


7.2%

(153)


105.6

126.8


16.8%

(239)


102.5

110.9


7.6%

(771)


T+24

(num. of cases)



TYM

PER


Skill

157.8

188.9


16.5%

(335)


156.4

209.0


25.2%

(134)


167.8

273.6


38.7%

(230)


160.8

220.6


27.1%

(699)


T+36

(num. of cases)



TYM

PER


Skill

203.7

285.9


28.7%

(292)


198.3

332.5


40.3%

(121)


246.9

452.3


45.4%

(218)


217.6

352.3


38.2%

(631)


T+48

(num. of cases)



TYM

PER


Skill

251.3

399.5


37.1%

(254)


249.7

418.2


40.3%

(107)


328.5

657.1


50.0%

(211)


279.4

498.0


43.9%

(572)


T+60

(num. of cases)



TYM

PER


Skill

310.1

511.0


39.3%

(213)


302.7

555.2


49.3%

(98)


428.6

862.0


50.3%

(199)


354.9

656.4


45.9%

(510)


T+72

(num. of cases)



TYM

PER


Skill

359.7

591.2


39.2%

(182)


369.1

724.5


49.0%

(84)


532.7

1058.6


49.7%

(186)


432.6

808.3


46.5%

(452)


T+84

(num. of cases)



TYM

PER


Skill

386.3

665.5


41.9%

(171)


363.3

716.9


49.3%

(74)


575.3

1181.0


51.3%

(181)


462.6

893.4


48.2%

(426)



Table 3.7.1.1: Mean error (km) of TYM central positions, stratified according to stage of motion with respect to recurvature, and skill (%) compared with persistence. ‘Before’, ‘During’, and ‘After’ mean TC’s moving to directions in 180-320 deg, 320-10deg, and 10-180 deg, respectively. ‘Skill’ is defined as 100 x (PER-TYM)/PER.
(ii) TYM – Distribution of central position errors


Error (km)

Number of predictions




T+24

T+48

T+72

> 1000

0

2

23

950 – 1000

0

1

2

900 – 950

0

3

7

850 – 900

1

1

4

800 – 850

0

4

9

750 – 800

1

2

11

700 – 750

0

4

10

650 – 700

0

7

13

600 – 650

0

8

17

550 – 600

2

6

23

500 – 550

3

16

23

450 – 500

4

29

22

400 – 450

12

31

36

350 – 400

19

55

35

300 – 350

28

48

39

250 – 300

46

66

35

200 – 250

77

64

53

150 – 200

120

93

40

100 – 150

184

63

23

50 – 100

144

47

21

0 – 50

59

22

6

Table 3.7.2.2: Distribution of TYM central position errors (km), stratified in ranges of 50 km.

(iii) TYM – Distribution of central pressure errors


Error (hPa)

Number of predictions




T+24

T+48

T+72

>42.5

35

43

45

37.5 - 42.5

13

17

24

32.5 - 37.5

14

29

15

27.5 - 32.5

34

26

21

22.5 - 27.5

42

31

34

17.5 - 22.5

51

35

31

12.5 - 17.5

70

53

31

7.5 - 12.5

95

70

47

2.5 - 7.5

116

93

55

-2.5 - 2.5

120

69

49

-7.5 - -2.5

70

51

36

-12.5 - -7.5

22

29

34

-17.5 - -12.5

14

20

14

-22.5 - -17.5

1

3

12

-27.5 - -22.5

2

2

4

-32.5 - -27.5

0

0

0

-37.5 - -32.5

0

1

0

-42.5 - -37.5

0

0

0

< -42.5

0

0

0

Table 3.7.2.3: Distribution of TYM central pressure errors (hPa), stratified in ranges of 5 hPa.

(iv) TYM – Distribution of maximum sustained wind errors



Error (ms-1)

Number of predictions




T+24

T+48

T+72

> 18.75

0

0

0

16.25 - 18.75

0

3

4

13.75 - 16.25

3

3

4

11.25 - 13.75

10

12

9

8.75 - 11.25

25

20

11

6.25 - 8.75

40

30

30

3.75 - 6.25

79

55

33

1.25 - 3.75

85

72

51

-1.25 - 1.25

118

76

61

-3.75 - -1.25

103

79

55

-6.25 - -3.75

72

66

30

-8.75 - -6.25

66

43

40

-11.25 - -8.75

33

30

39

-13.75 - -11.25

30

27

28

-16.25 - -13.75

6

12

24

-18.75 - -16.25

4

20

17

< - 18.75 - -18.75

1

3

4

Table 3.7.2.4: Distribution of TYM maximum sustained wind errors (ms-1), stratified in ranges of 2.5 ms-1.




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