1ac heg Advantage Scenario 1 is Leadership
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- Terrorists and rogue nations know about our vulnerability to EMP attacks and have both the desire and the ability to acquire such capabilities and use them to decimate US infrastructure
- An EMP would destroy infrastructure in the US causing a collapse of the global economy and sending the world into a new dark age Carafano and Weitz 10
- Rogue Nations have large incentives to use an EMP as opposed to a traditional nuclear attack- EMPs are more likely now than ever Spencer 4
- Boost phase intercept capabilities deter adversaries from launching an EMP attack and are more cost effective than “hardening” all of our infrastructure Spencer 4
***1AC EMP Advantage***Traditional deterrence fails against an EMP- proliferation to rogue nations, terrorist threat and less of massive retaliation Spencer 4 – Jack Spencer, Senior Policy Analyst for Defense and National Security in the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies at The Heritage Foundation, 8-3-04, “The Electromagnetic Pulse Commission Warns of an Old Threat with a New Face,” The Heritage Foundation, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2004/08/the-electromagnetic-pulse-commission-warns-of-an-old-threat-with-a-new-face Although the threat of a high-altitude EMP attack against America existed during the Cold War, the likelihood may be much greater today.6 During the Cold War, an EMP attack was viewed as the first step in launching a nuclear war. However, it was never tried because the threat of massive nuclear retaliation, the central tenet of the mutual assured destruction doctrine, provided an effective deterrent. Although China and Russia both maintain the ability to launch major nuclear strikes against the United States, the Cold War dynamic that made the doctrine of mutual assured destruction relevant is largely gone from today's strategic calculations. The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), the rise of powerful non-state actors, and the evolving strategic relationships with countries like China and Russia have made the threat more difficult to assess. In reality, the U.S. simply cannot rely on the old tools of deterrence to compel threatening regimes not to attack the United States or its interests. As demonstrated on September 11, 2001, the Cold War deterrent of massive retaliation does not work. The emergence of nuclear rogue states results in a completely new strategic calculation. Since no rogue nation has the capacity to fight a general nuclear war, an EMP blast would not be a precursor of full-scale nuclear war. Furthermore, since an EMP blast is unlikely to kill anyone directly or to be followed by a nuclear strike that would annihilate U.S. cities, the United States is less likely to retaliate and destroy an entire nation of innocent people as punishment for the decisions of a rogue leader. It is simply unclear how the U.S. would respond to such an attack. Terrorists and rogue nations know about our vulnerability to EMP attacks and have both the desire and the ability to acquire such capabilities and use them to decimate US infrastructure Shark 7 - Dr. Alan Shark, Executive Director of Public Technology Institute, 9-10-07, “Initial Economic Assessment of Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Impact upon the Baltimore-Washington-Richmond Region,” The Sage Policy Group, http://www.survive-emp.com/fileadmin/White-Papers/EMP-Resources/EMP-Econ-Study.pdf Unfortunately, the public and all too many policymakers still do not understand that rogue states and terrorists are obsessed with obtaining nuclear weapons and EMP capability. They are well aware that if they can credibly threaten or actually execute an EMP attack against the United States that they could destroy the critical infrastructures—electrical power, telecommunications, transportation, food and water—that sustain our civilization. As the EMP Commission warned in their report to Congress: “The highaltitude nuclear weapon generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP) is one of a small number of threats that has the potential to hold our society seriously at risk and might result in the defeat of our military forces….the degradation of infrastructure could have irreversible effects on the country’s ability to support its population.”The EMP Commission found that terrorists could perform an EMP attack. A sophisticated intercontinental ballistic missile is not required to make an EMP attack. The EMP Commission found that a short- or medium-range missile, like a Scud or Iran’s Shahab-3, launched off a freighter, could make an EMP attack on the United States. Iran has practiced such a launch-mode, firing a Scud missile off a vessel in the Caspian Sea.A high-yield nuclear weapon is not necessary to perform an EMP attack that would destroy U.S. critical infrastructures. One of the EMP Commission’s key findings reported to the U.S. Congress is that: “Certain types of relatively low-yield nuclear weapons can be employed to generate potentially catastrophic EMP effects over wide geographic areas, and designs for variants of such weapons may have been illicitly trafficked for a quarter-century. An EMP would destroy infrastructure in the US causing a collapse of the global economy and sending the world into a new dark age Carafano and Weitz 10 - James Jay Carafano, Ph.D, Director of the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, and Richard Weitz, Ph.D, Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for Political–Military Analysis at the Hudson Institute, 11-17-2010, “EMP Attacks—What the U.S. Must Do Now” The Heritage Foundation, http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2010/11/EMP-Attacks-What-the-US-Must-Do-Now An electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack represents one of the greatest threats imaginable—to the United States and the world. An EMP occurs when a nuclear device is detonated high in the atmosphere—a phenomenon of which America’s enemies are well aware. The electromagnetic discharge can permanently disable the electrical systems that run nearly all civilian and military infrastructures. A massive EMP attack on the United States would produce almost unimaginable devastation. Communications would collapse, transportation would halt, and electrical power would simply be non-existent. Not even a global humanitarian effort would be enough to keep hundreds of millions of Americans from death by starvation, exposure, or lack of medicine. Nor would the catastrophe stop at U.S. borders. Most of Canada would be devastated, too, as its infrastructure is integrated with the U.S. power grid. Without the American economic engine, the world economy would quickly collapse. Much of the world’s intellectual brain power (half of it is in the United States) would be lost as well. Earth would most likely recede into the “new” Dark Ages. Rogue Nations have large incentives to use an EMP as opposed to a traditional nuclear attack- EMPs are more likely now than ever Spencer 4 – Jack Spencer, Senior Policy Analyst for Defense and National Security in the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies at The Heritage Foundation, 8-3-04, “The Electromagnetic Pulse Commission Warns of an Old Threat with a New Face,” The Heritage Foundation, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2004/08/the-electromagnetic-pulse-commission-warns-of-an-old-threat-with-a-new-face The simple motivation for a rogue state to use its limited nuclear arsenal in an EMP strike against the United States is that an EMP attack maximizes the impact of a few warheads while minimizing the risk of retaliation. This profound decrease in risk for rogue leaders could impel them to use EMP to offset overwhelming U.S. conventional power on the battlefield. While EMP may not precede general nuclear war, it could be used as an opening salvo in a conventional war. Nations with small numbers of nuclear missiles, such as North Korea or Iran, may consider an EMP attack against U.S. forces in a region, to degrade the U.S. military's technological advantage, or against the United States' national electronic infrastructure. Furthermore, an EMP attack using a few nuclear weapons could theoretically damage the entire continental United States, far exceeding the impact of using those same warheads against specific U.S. cities or installations. Likewise, an EMP attack could degrade the U.S. armed forces throughout an entire region. Because America's response to an EMP attack by a rogue state is unclear and because EMP attacks are less risky for rogue states, such attacks are far more likely in this era of nuclear weapons proliferation than during the Cold War. SBMD is the most effective way to protect from an EMP attack which would destroy electronic infrastructure and create irreversible damage for the US, only boost phase intercept capabilities would solve Lambakis 7 – Dr. Stephen J. Lambakis, February and March 2007, National security and international affairs analyst specializing in space power and policy studies, “Missile Defense from Space,” The Hoover institution, http://www.gees.org/documentos/Documen-02177.pdf It is also known that enemies of the United States can put a nuclear weapon over U.S. territory using a ballistic missile. The detonation of this weapon at a high altitude could unleash an electromagnetic pulse that would wipe out satellite and airborne navigation, intelligence, and communications systems and impede any U.S. military response to the aggression. Such a pulse of energy would disable or destroy the unprotected technological infrastructure of a region or the nation. According to the emp Commission, “a regional or national recovery would be long and difficult and would seriously degrade the safety and overall viability of our nation. . . . [A]t some point the degradation of infrastructure could have irreversible effects on the country’s ability to support its population.” Space-based interceptors may be the only effective way to counter this threat and mitigate the effects of an electromagnetic pulse resulting from the intercept. Engaging the missile close to its launch point would release the resulting explosion of gamma rays closer to the attacker’s territory. Relying on an intercept in space, in the midcourse of a missile’s flight, risks damaging unprotected satellites (i.e., just about all commercial and civilian satellites), regardless of who owns them Boost phase intercept capabilities deter adversaries from launching an EMP attack and are more cost effective than “hardening” all of our infrastructure Spencer 4 – Jack Spencer, Senior Policy Analyst for Defense and National Security in the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies at The Heritage Foundation, 8-3-04, “The Electromagnetic Pulse Commission Warns of an Old Threat with a New Face,” The Heritage Foundation, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2004/08/the-electromagnetic-pulse-commission-warns-of-an-old-threat-with-a-new-face The surest way to protect the United States from a high-altitude EMP is by deploying a ballistic missile defense system that can intercept and destroy a warhead before it could be detonated above the U.S. This would prevent an EMP attack and eliminate any potential harm to U.S. systems, and it could even deter rogue leaders from considering the use of EMP. Deploying a missile defense architecture that can intercept a missile early in flight (during the ascent phase) would render rogue missiles ineffective, thereby undermining the rationale to use them. Moreover, because protecting America's entire civilian electronic infrastructure is not fiscally feasible and because a ballistic missile is the most likely delivery vehicle for an EMP attack, the most prudent method to protect America is a missile defense system that could destroy a ballistic missile before it reaches U.S. airspace. Directory: files files -> Answer True False 2 points Question 2 files -> Integer programming and game theory files -> 4 Integer Programming files -> Bpa vehicle Window Repair Scenario #1 task: Procure vehicle window relacement. 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