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Crime Disadvantage Affirmative Answers
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- US crime rate experiencing sudden spike
- Crime rates rising – specifically targeting black and the inner-city poor
- No Link - Surveillance doesn’t reduce crime
- No data support surveillance deterrence – it doesn’t reduce crime but trades off with more effective approaches
- Answers to: Crime Hurts Economy
- Weak internal link – overall data is mixed
- Their evidence flawed—no systematic study to correlate economy and crime
- The correlation between crime and the economy is not consistent.
Crime Disadvantage Affirmative AnswersNon-unique: Crime High Now2015 marks the rise of crime rates Gold 6/5 (Ashley Gold, 6-5-2015, "Why has the murder rate in some US cities suddenly spiked?," BBC News, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-32995911) LO Murder and violent crime rates have risen in multiple US cities since the beginning of 2015, after falling for two decades. Some have put this down to a so-called Ferguson effect, referring to the protests against perceived police brutality, that sometimes became violent. Could that be true? What do the statistics say? There are no national figures on crime in the US available yet for 2015, but some cities have released their own figures. In New York City, the murder rate has gone up by 20% in 2015 compared with the first few months of 2014. Mayor Bill de Blasio called a special news conference at which he acknowledged the increase, but said it could be contained. He said he had faith in the New York Police Department that they will "turn the tide". In other cities, there are similar increases reported. In Baltimore, murders are up 37% and in Los Angeles, violent crime is up by 27% (although murders are down 2%). In Houston, murders are up nearly 50% so far this year. What is the Ferguson effect? This is a term coined by St Louis Police Chief Sam Dotson, whose police officers had been one of the forces dealing with the summer protests and riots in Ferguson, Missouri, following the fatal shooting of black teenager Michael Brown. He said in November his police officers had been drawing back from everyday enforcement due to fears they could be charged. As a result, he said, the "criminal element is feeling empowered". The phrase was repeated recently by Heather MacDonald, a fellow at the US Manhattan Institute, in a piece for the Wall Street Journal. The Ferguson effect, she said, was taking hold across the country "under the onslaught of anti-cop rhetoric". Multiple police officers Ms MacDonald spoke to told her police morale is at an all-time low and they are now worried about being charged, recorded and assaulted while trying to do their jobs and keep communities safe. "Unless the demonisation of law enforcement ends, the liberating gains in urban safety will be lost," she wrote. Baltimore's police boss, Anthony Batts, said the riots had another effect on crime. Scores of pharmacies had been looted and the surge in the supply of drugs has "thrown off the balance" between gangs in the city, he said. "There's enough narcotics on the streets of Baltimore to keep it intoxicated for a year," he said. US crime rate experiencing sudden spikeBatley 6/4 (Melaine Batley, 6-4-2015, "Sudden Spike in Violent Crime Across US Raises Alarm," Newsmax, http://www.newsmax.com/US/crime-violent-homicide-cities/2015/06/04/id/648724/) LO Major cities across the United States are seeing their crime rates skyrocket, sparking alarm about the causes, particularly given that there had been a two-decade drop in crime. A city-by-city look shows: In Baltimore, shootings are up 82.5 percent, or nearly double from last year, the Baltimore Brew reported. In Chicago, there have been over 900 shootings this year, a 40 percent increase, and a 29 percent increase in homicides in the first three months of the year, USA Today reported. In New York City, murders have increased 20 percent and the mayor has already announced that he will put an additional 330 cops on the street by Monday in response to the spike in homicides and shootings. In Los Angeles, violent crime rates increased by more than 25 percent and the city is also deploying more officers to areas where crime is on the rise, The Los Angeles Times reported. And according to Townhall.com: In St. Louis, there have been 55 murders this year In Dallas, violent crime is up 10 percent In Atlanta, homicides are up 32 percent In Milwaukee, homicides have increased by 180 percent Some attribute the rise in crime to a "Ferguson" effect, or a rise in anti-police sentiment born out of the protests and clashes around the country that followed the deaths of unarmed black men at the hands of police, The Week reported. A dynamic may have emerged in which criminals are more brazen and police are more cautious in fighting crime. "There's a war on cops. Not bad cops, not bad apples, but all cops and the police know it. The conduct of the suspects is never in question — they're always right, it's usually drawn on racial lines. It's a complete, toxic formula to actually do police work," said former Los Angeles Police Department Homicide Detective Mark Fuhrman, according to Townhall.com. "The police are simply scaling back, exactly what everybody's chanting for in all of these protests. 'Don't be so aggressive. Don't stop and frisk. Don't stop and ask where people are going. Don't make traffic stops.' So, they are," Fuhrman said, and now crime's skyrocketing. But others say that linking the protests to an increase in crime is misleading. "This is all part of an attempt to tell black people that if we exercise our First Amendment rights, we are somehow now responsible for people who engage in crime," said CNN political analyst Van Jones. "Why should the black community have to choose between police abuse and police neglect? That's a false choice." Crime rates rising – specifically targeting black and the inner-city poorWood 6/6 (Chip Wood, 6-6-2015, "Why Crime Rates Are Soaring," The NewAmerican, http://www.thenewamerican.com/reviews/opinion/item/21015-why-crime-rates-are-soaring) LO It’s being called “the Ferguson effect.” It’s the explosion of violent crimes in major U.S. cities, thanks to the ways police have been demoralized — and criminals have been emboldened — in the aftermath of police shootings of supposedly innocent blacks. In Baltimore, there were 43 homicides in the month of May. This is the highest murder rate there in more than 40 years, when the city’s population was almost 50 percent bigger than it is now. This brings the death toll for the year to 116 people, the vast majority of them blacks. Heather Mac Donald, the Thomas W. Smith fellow at the Manhattan Institute, described the situation in a May 29 column, “The New Nationwide Crime Wave.” Her piece carried the subtitle, “The consequences of the ‘Ferguson effect’ are already appearing. The main victims of growing violence will be inner-city poor.” Here’s how her article began: The nation’s two-decades-long crime decline may be over. Gun violence in particular is spiraling upward in cities across America. In Baltimore, the most pressing question every morning is how many people were shot the previous night. Gun violence is up more than 60% compared with this time last year, according to Baltimore police, with 32 shootings over Memorial Day weekend. May has been the most violent month the city has seen in 15 years. But Baltimore isn’t the only major city that has seen crime rates soar. Homicides in Atlanta were up 32 percent in the first five months of the year. In Chicago, which already was contending for the title “Murder Capital of the Country” because of the high death rate there, homicides are up 17 percent so far this year. In New York, homicides are up almost 13 percent. In St. Louis, robberies were up 43 percent during the first four months of this year. During the same period, homicides increased by 25 percent. St. Louis Police Chief Sam Dotson said a major reason for the increase is that “the criminal element is feeling empowered.” Of course it is! What else would you expect to happen when the media are only too eager to portray police as racist killers and when public officials, from city mayors to the president of the United States, are all too willing to play into this false narrative? Remember the demonization of police that occurred after the shooting of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri? Although it was later proved that Brown attacked police officer Darren Wilson and wasn’t standing with his hands up, trying to surrender, the lie that he was doing so led to the slogan “Hands up, don’t shoot” being used by demonstrators all over the country. The mainstream media were only too willing to repeat every dishonest smear against the police. Publicity hound and racist agitator Al Sharpton got massive exposure for every scurrilous attack on the police that he uttered. Who cared what the truth was? The real tragedy here is that it is blacks who are the biggest victims of the soaring crime rates. They’re being raped, robbed, shot and molested by black criminals in increasing numbers. Before this year, violent crimes in America had been declining for the past two decades. Now, crime rates are soaring. As Mac Donald wrote: If these decriminalization and deincarceration policies backfire, the people most harmed will be their supposed beneficiaries: blacks, since they are disproportionately victimized by crime. Right! But will this be enough to get the Democrats who run virtually every big city in America to change their policies or for the mainstream media to expose the lies that help fuel the mayhem? Not a chance. I’m afraid things will only get worse, especially in our inner cities, before they get better — maybe a lot worse. Until next time, keep some powder dry. No Link - Surveillance doesn’t reduce crimeStudies show surveillance doesn’t stop crime Ali Winston 9-11-2013 The East Bay Express http://www.eastbayexpress.com/oakland/we-are-being-watched/Content?oid=3706988 We Are Being Watched Our fear of another 9/11 resulted in the erosion of our privacy rights. And now our fear of crime is pushing the surveillance state to a whole new level The Domain Awareness Center -- Oakland's planned surveillance hub that is being designed to collect data from at least 150 city and port cameras, 40 license plate readers, gunshot detectors, alarm notifications, and intelligent video programs -- is the broadest surveillance project in the region and has attracted the most criticism. Funded entirely through federal grant money and being built on a contract by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) -- a defense contractor with a record of making shoddy products; producing cost overruns; and defrauding municipal, federal, and foreign governments -- the surveillance center has also attracted heavy criticism for its lack of privacy or data retention policies, as well as for its plans to incorporate cameras from the Oakland Unified School District, the Oakland Coliseum, and freeways. But expanded electronic surveillance has also garnered widespread support from city residents who are fed up with crime and are willing to trade their privacy rights and civil liberties for the chance of being safer -- much as Americans have done throughout the past decade in the fight against terrorism. "People who probably in a 'normal' or less fearful crime-ridden situation would not think about wanting more cameras, but in the reality of today, I'm getting people saying, 'Can't we get more cameras in these places?'" said Dan Kalb, who represents North Oakland (one of the city's less crime-impacted neighborhoods) on the city council. "They want to be able to walk back from BART to their homes -- four blocks -- without fearing having to do it. People are taking cabs from Rockridge BART home. It's a shame that it's gotten to that point." While much of the official rhetoric about the surveillance center has revolved around Oakland's high crime rate, a substantial body of research reveals that video surveillance does not impact violent crime. In London, where there are 4.2 million surveillance cameras, police studies last decade concluded that the expansion of the surveillance state had not resulted in decreased crime. Furthermore, video surveillance by law enforcement raises concerns about racial profiling. In Lansing, Michigan, an independent study of surveillance cameras concluded that black residents were twice as likely to be under continual surveillance than white residents. No data support surveillance deterrence – it doesn’t reduce crime but trades off with more effective approachesMark Schlosberg August 2007 The California ACLU Affiliates https://www.aclunc.org/docs/criminal_justice/police_practices/under_the_watchful_eye_the_proliferation_of_video_surveillance_systems_in_california.pdf Under the Watchful Eye The Proliferation of Video Surveillance Systems in California (and Nicole A. Ozer, co author) Even in the face of this evidence, law enforcement and government officials in California continue to claim that cameras deter crime. In San Francisco, for example, the Director of the Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice admitted, at a public hearing on the proposed expansion of the city’s video surveillance program, that he was unaware of any studies demonstrating the effectiveness of cameras and that there had been no comprehensive study of San Francisco’s system. Yet, he continued to assert that cameras would deter crime.81 Likewise, in Clovis, Police Captain Robert Keyes asserted that cameras contributed to a reduction in crime, despite the fact that “there’s nothing other than anecdotal evidence to support that.”82 The ACLU survey found that no California jurisdiction with video surveillance cameras has conducted a comprehensive evaluation of their effectiveness. As comprehensive studies strongly suggest cameras do not deter crime, the rationale of deterrence falls short of justifying either the cameras’ expense or their intrusion into privacy. Another justification for video surveillance is that its purported ability to capture evidence of criminal activity could potentially increase the success of criminal prosecutions. In London, the role of CCTV cameras in identifying the men involved in the 2005 terrorist attacks has been highly publicized. Cameras undoubtedly capture some evidence of criminal activity, but in the limited studies available, evidence suggests that the impact of video footage on prosecutions may not be as significant as policy-makers expect. First, some evidence suggests that cameras make little difference in the number of crimes actually solved. The Glasgow study cited above, for example, found that “the cameras appeared to have little effect on the clearance rates for crimes and offenses generally. Comparing statistics before and after installation of the cameras, the clear-up rate increased slightly, from 62 to 64 percent. Once these figures were adjusted for general trends, however, the research analysts concluded that the clear-up rate fell from 64 to 60 percent.”83 Second, while some crimes are certainly captured on film, some law enforcement agencies appear to overestimate the degree to which the footage helps law enforcement actually convict criminals. In Maryland, for example, Margaret Burns, a spokesperson for the state attorney’s office, told reporters for the Washington Times that the office has not “found them to be a useful tool to prosecutors . . . they’re good for circumstantial evidence, but it definitely isn’t evidence we find useful to convict somebody of a crime . . . We have not used any footage to resolve a violent-crime case.”84 According to a study by the Maryland state attorney’s office, of the nearly 2,000 arrests made on the basis of video camera footage, the vast majority concluded in an outright dismissal or a conviction for minor crimes. The office is now questioning the large amount of taxpayer money spent on the program. “Do these prosecutorial results support millions of dollars in tax expenditures? There will have to be a public debate about this,” Burns said.85 In Cincinnati, Ohio, police also found cameras to be ineffective. A University of Cincinnati study found that the city’s program, which began in 1998, merely shifted crime beyond the view of the cameras. According to Captain Kimberly Frey, “We’ve never really gotten anything useful from them . . . we’ve never had a successful prosecution . . . we’re trying to use . . . money for other things. Video surveillance costs more than the cameras alone: The dollars used to buy the system are not spent in a vacuum. Public safety budgets are stretched very thin, especially in many urban areas, so money dedicated to video surveillance often comes at the expense of potentially more effective measures, such as lighting, community policing initiatives, and increased foot patrols. Compare the lack of evidence of video surveillance’s ability to reduce crime with the remarkable results that improved lighting produces. A survey commissioned by the British Home Office looked at 13 lighting studies in Great Britain and the United States and evaluated the cumulative impact. The study found a 20 percent average decrease in crime, with reductions in every area of criminal activity including violent crime. In fact, in two areas “financial savings from reduced crimes greatly exceeded the financial costs of the improved lighting.” The report concluded: Street lighting benefits the whole neighborhood rather than particular individuals or households. It is not a physical barrier to crime, it has no adverse civil liberties implications, and it can increase public safety and effective use of neighborhood streets at night. In short, improved lighting seems to have no negative effects and demonstrated benefits for law-abiding citizens.87 Intensive foot patrols have shown similar results—reductions in crime, including violent crime, of 15 to 20 percent.88 These findings suggest that from a law enforcement and public safety perspective alone, the dedication of scarce resources to video surveillance systems may not only be an inefficient and ineffective use of funds, it may actually be counterproductive. Answers to: Crime Hurts EconomyNo clear crime-economy relationshipJohn Roman 9-23-2013 Urban Institute, Justice Policy Center Sr Fellow http://www.citylab.com/work/2013/09/puzzling-relationship-between-crime-and-economy/6982/The Puzzling Relationship Between Crime and the Economy Criminologists say bad economies create more crime; economists say the opposite. But recent data reveals neither explanation is right. Looking at the relationship between GDP and crime back to the earliest reliable crime data from 1960 supports both positions, suggesting there is no relationship between economic growth and crime. In the first part of the series, rising GDP is associated with rapidly increasing crime. In the second part, it is associated with declining crime. In the middle, there is no relationship at all. Most macroeconomic data show the same pattern. Consider consumer confidence data going back to the inception of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data in 1978. Again, the consumer confidence data show no relationship between consumer sentiment and crime rates. That, however, is because the relationship was strongly negative prior to 1992 (meaning more confident consumers=less crime). After 1992, the pattern reverses, and the better the economy, the more crime there is. The bottom line: Crime is episodic and there is no singular effect of the economy on crime. In order to understand and prevent crime, it is therefore necessary to understand what type of period we are in. It’s also necessary to understand what forces are at work locally, rather than focus on the national picture. Next week, I will address that point. Weak internal link – overall data is mixedEleftherios Goulas & Athina Zervoyianni April 2012 University of Patras (Greece) Econ Department http://www.rcfea.org/RePEc/pdf/wp51_12.pdfWP 12-51 The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis (RCEA), Italy ECONOMIC GROWTH AND CRIME: DOES UNCERTAINTY MATTER? Nevertheless, despite the growing literature, empirical studies have not yet produced a definite conclusion regarding the impact of crime on economic growth. Existing findings are often contradictory, with some estimates suggesting a strong adverse influence of crime on growth while other studies report evidence indicating no effect at all. For example, Peri (2004) finds crime to have a statistically significant impact in reducing both per capita income growth and employment growth using panel data at provincial level from Italy for 1951-1999. His results, however, indicate the possibility of non-linearities in the crime-growth relationship. Burnham et al. (2004) explore the impact of central-city crime on US county-level per-capita income growth and report results suggesting no clear crime-growth relationship. In particular, while they find a statistically significant adverse violent-crime effect on growth, the impact of property crime is weak and in some specifications perverse. On the other hand, a World Bank study (World Bank, 2006), based on data from 43 countries for 1975-2000, reports results suggesting a strong negative effect of crime on growth even after controlling for human-capital accumulation and income inequality, that is, variables which are likely to be causally linked to crime. Càrdenas (2007) also finds a significantly negative association between crime and per-capita output growth in a panel of 65 countries using homicides data for 1971-1999 and a country-fixed effects specification. Mauro & Carmeci (2007) find that crime impacts negatively on income levels but exerts no significant long-run adverse influence on growth rates employing the pooled-mean-group estimator (Pesaran et al. (1999)) and homicides data from 19 Italian regions during the period 1963-1995. Dettoto & Pulina (2009) explore the cointegration status between six types of crime and employment growth using Italian national-level data between 1970 and 2004. Their results indicate that property crime, but not homicides, causes lower long-run employment growth. In a more recent study, Dettoto & Otranto (2010) apply an autoregressive model, in which real GDP growth is explained by past GDP and a crime proxy, to monthly data for Italy during the period 1979-2002 and find only a relatively small annualized real-GDP growth reduction due to crime. Chatterjee & Ray (2009), based on a large cross-country data set for the period 1991-2005 and controlling for human capital and institutional quality, also find no strong evidence of a uniformly negative association between crime and growth and this applies both to total crime and to sub-categories of crime. Their evidence flawed—no systematic study to correlate economy and crimeBY DEBRA RESCHKE A mixed bag of conditions could have various effects on crime RETAIL CRIME IN AN ECONOMIC DOWNTURN National Petroleum News [serial online]. April 2009;101(4):24. Available from: MasterFILE Premier, Ipswich, MA. Accessed July 6, 2015. Although it is generally assumed that fluctuations in the economy alter crime, evidence that categorically proves it is hard to find. "There's never been a systematic study that shows it," said Peter Manning, Brooks Professor of Criminal lustice at Northeastern University. He explained the lack of proof by echoing Erickson's statement; the lag between the change in the economy and crime rate makes it difficult to predict. Also, according to Manning, several various different political and philosophical opinions tend to go along with these types of studies as well as possibly erroneous ideas. "The idea that people who commit these crimes become more impulsive (in economic downturns) is simply not true," he said. In fact, he added, robbers, in either bear or bull markets, are usually unemployed and, therefore, unrelated to the economy. What has been more widely studied and documented are the characteristics of retail rohhers. Findings suggest the people who commit robberies at places like c-stores are usually impulsive by nature, low skilled and fairly young, said Manning The correlation between crime and the economy is not consistent.JOHN ROMAN senior fellow in the Justice Policy Center at the Urban Institute, where he focuses on evaluations of innovative crime-control policies and justice programsSep 24, 2013 The Puzzling Relationship Between Crime and the Economy http://www.citylab.com/work/2013/09/puzzling-relationship-between-crime-and-economy/6982/ But as the figures below show, the relationship between crime and the economy is not as obvious as it seems, and focusing on that relationship obscures more important predictors. Looking at the relationship between GDP and crime back to the earliest reliable crime data from 1960 supports both positions, suggesting there is no relationship between economic growth and crime. In the first part of the series, rising GDP is associated with rapidly increasing crime. In the second part, it is associated with declining crime. In the middle, there is no relationship at all. Most macroeconomic data show the same pattern. Consider consumer confidence data going back to the inception of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data in 1978. Again, the consumer confidence data show no relationship between consumer sentiment and crime rates. That, however, is because the relationship was strongly negative prior to 1992 (meaning more confident consumers=less crime). After 1992, the pattern reverses, and the better the economy, the more crime there is. The bottom line: Crime is episodic and there is no singular effect of the economy on crime. In order to understand and prevent crime, it is therefore necessary to understand what type of period we are in. It’s also necessary to understand what forces are at work locally, rather than focus on the national picture. Next week, I will address that point Directory: wp-content -> uploads -> 2015 2015 -> Police Militarization 2015 -> 2015 ihbb championships: hs history Bowl Round 4 – Prelims First Quarter 2015 -> Wrtp/big step · 3841 W. Wisconsin Ave., Milwaukee, wi 53208 2015 -> Rao bulletin 1 December 2015 html edition this bulletin contains the following articles 2015 -> Darton College 2015 -> Training Workshop on Planning and Implementation of Multi-Sectoral Development Programme (MsDP) in Bihar Date : 6th 2015 -> Rao bulletin 15 June 2015 html edition this bulletin contains the following articles 2015 -> Rao bulletin 1 September 2015 html edition this bulletin contains the following articles 2015 -> Rao bulletin 1 August 2015 html edition this bulletin contains the following articles 2015 -> Science, and transportation united states senate Download 1.69 Mb. Share with your friends:
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