Chicago Debate League 2013/14 Core Files


AC Harms: A/t - #3 “Violence is Decreasing” [3/3] 25



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2AC Harms: A/t - #3 “Violence is Decreasing” [3/3] 25



4) Statistics show that Mexican drug violence is growing – threatening to collapse the Mexican government.
FARAH, 12

[Joseph, editor-in-chief for WorldNetDaily, “Count Mexico among deadly failed states,” 01/27, http://www.wnd.com/2012/01/count-mexico-among-deadly-failed-states/]


Mexican president Felipe Calderon has lost the war against drug cartels for control of his nation, and the candidates for next July’s presidential election have all but surrendered to the drug lords already, creating a failed state on the U.S. border and undermining national security, analysts have said in a report from Joseph Farah’s G2 Bulletin. “Relative peace and calm could set in during the second half of 2012 in Mexico, but if it does it will only represent the fruits of defeat rather than victory,” according to the open source intelligence group Langley Intelligence Network, or LIGNET, which is made up of former Central Intelligence Agency analysts and officials. As far back as 2009, the Pentagon had warned in a report that Mexico was perilously close to become a failed state. Since then, conditions have only grown worse. Its murderously violent drug wars have spilled over into U.S. towns and cities along the U.S. southern border, and that has raised U.S. national security concerns. With U.S. help, Calderon had taken on the drug cartels which have exercised de facto control over Mexico for years. Calderon had ordered the Mexican army to fight the cartels and replace local police authorities who had been intimidated into inaction and were being bribed, allowing the cartels, in effect, to become the governing power in areas like Ciudad Juarez. Now, the violence has spread to the interior of the country and to such areas as Veracruz in Veracruz state, Monterrey in Nuevo Leon state, Matamoros in Tamaulipas state and Durango in Durango state. Despite efforts to stop the cartels, killings have greatly risen. Documents released recently by the Mexican government reveal that killings have increased 11 percent during the first nine months of 2011 to 12,903. compared to 11,583 a year earlier.
5) Mexican drug violence is starting to spill-over into the U.S. with advanced weaponry.
SEELKE AND FINKLEA, 13

[Clare, Specialist in Latin American Affairs; Kristin, Analyst in Domestic Security with Congressional Research Service; “U.S.-Mexican Security Cooperation: The Mérida Initiative and Beyond,” 1/14, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41349.pdf]


The prevalence of drug trafficking-related violence within and between the DTOs in Mexico— and particularly in those areas of Mexico near the U.S.-Mexico border—has generated concern among U.S. policy makers that this violence might spill over into the United States. U.S. officials deny that the increase in drug trafficking-related violence in Mexico has resulted in a significant spillover of violence into the United States, but they acknowledge that the prospect is a serious concern. 21 For instance, in April 2010, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) issued a safety alert to law enforcement officers in the El Paso area warning that DTOs and associated gangs may target U.S. law enforcement. 22 This alert came at a time when the Mexican DTOs had begun to direct more of their violence at Mexican authorities and to use new forms of weaponry, including sniper rifles, grenades, and car bombs.

2AC Harms: A/t - #4 “Drugs are Decreasing” [1/2] 26



1) Illegal drugs from Mexico are highly profitable and the industry is growing.
WALSER, 10

[Ray, PhD., senior policy analyst at The Heritage Foundation; “U.S. Strategy Against Mexican Drug Cartels: Flawed and Uncertain,” 4/26, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/04/us-strategy-against-mexican-drug-cartels-flawed-and-uncertain]


The U.S.–Mexico drug challenge remains stark and disturbing. Mexican-based traffickers smuggle an estimated 500 to 700 metric tons of cocaine into the U.S. every year. Mexican DTOs or cartels have dominated cocaine-smuggling into the U.S. increasingly since the 1990s. Mexico is the top foreign source of marijuana, cultivating and harvesting an estimated 15,800 metric tons in 2007.[2] Cannabis is a highly profitable mainstay for the Mexican cartels, reportedly accounting for 50 to 60 percent of their profits. Mexican drug-smuggling organizations are also expanding marijuana production inside the U.S. to increase profits and minimize detection. Mexico is a major provider of heroin and methamphetamines to the U.S. Estimates of the revenue generated from illicit sales of drugs range from $13 billion to $38 billion. Only Mexico’s oil and auto industries generate greater revenue streams.

2) Violence by drug trafficking organizations along the U.S.-Mexico border is increasing.
SEELKE AND FINKLEA, 13

[Clare, Specialist in Latin American Affairs; Kristin, Analyst in Domestic Security with Congressional Research Service; “U.S.-Mexican Security Cooperation: The Mérida Initiative and Beyond,” 1/14, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41349.pdf]


Brazen violence perpetrated by drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) and other criminal groups is threatening citizen security and governance in some parts of Mexico, a country with which the United States shares a nearly 2,000 mile border and $460 billion in annual trade. Although the violence in Mexico has generally declined since late 2011, analysts estimate that it may have claimed more than 60,000 lives over the last six years. The violence has increased U.S. concerns about stability in Mexico, a key political and economic ally, and about the possibility of violence spilling over into the United States. Mexican DTOs dominate the U.S. illicit drug market and are considered the greatest drug trafficking threat facing the United States.




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