Chinese Wind Energy Disad

NC/1NR Link—OSW K2 Chinese Clean Tech

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2NC/1NR Link—OSW K2 Chinese Clean Tech

Offshore wind is key---only tech that can meet China’s needs

Martinot 10 Eric Martinot is research director with the Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies in Tokyo, Japan. “Renewable power for China: Past, present, and future,” Frontiers of Energy and Power Engineering in China Vol. 4, No. 3, pp. 287-294, http://www.martinot.info/Martinot_FEPE4-3.pdf
It appears reasonable to expect that the proposed renewable energy development targets for 2020 introduced at the beginning of this paper will be achieved, perhaps even before 2020. However, prospects for renewables development through 2020 and beyond hinge on the degree to which renewable power technologies can be integrated into power systems on increasing scales, at both centralized and distributed levels, with managed and coordinated approaches among utilities, project developers, consumers, enterprises, and local governments. Wind power appears to exhibit the most promise for China. Wind resources in China total at least 250 GW onshore and 750 GW offshore [14,15]. Thus, there is considerable scope for further development for at least another 15 to 20 years. However, offshore wind turbine technology and development planning will become increasingly important as the best onshore sites are used up. The main constraints to wind power development do not appear to be resources or costs, but rather power transmission constraints (between windy regions and population centers) and energy storage constraints. To approach 1000 GW of wind power in the long term would require significant amounts of electricity storage capacity to even out the variations in wind power output on minute-by-minute, hourly, daily, and even seasonal scales.

2NC/1NR Link—Wind K2 Clean Tech Leadership

Wind is symbolically key to clean tech leadership

Asmus 11 Peter Asmus, president of Pathfinder Communications, is an internationally known expert on energy and Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) matters. “Wind: Leader of the renewable power pack,” Oct 24, http://www.fierceenergy.com/story/wind-leader-renewable-power-pack/2011-10-24
As the most affordable renewable-energy choice, wind power has emerged as an icon of green technology. With more than 200 GW of capacity currently up and running, and large companies such as General Electric, Vestas, Siemens, Mitsubishi and BP all investing in the sector, it is clear this technology has a bright future. While the North American wind energy industry lags in key areas compared to Europe and Asia, many key industry players are optimistic about the North American market as turbine costs continue to drop dramatically. A total of 5,784 MW of wind capacity was added in North America in 2010, according to Pike Research's report, Wind Energy Outlook for North America. Wind has been tapped as a source of mechanical powers for centuries. Between the 14th and 19th centuries, for example, windmills of various kinds provided as much as a quarter of Europe's total energy needs. Before the advent of the Industrial Revolution, windmills ranked second only to wood fuel as a source of power. Wind, of course, also provided the "fuel" for the sailing vessels of the Age of Discovery. Until the past three decades, its variability and potentially destructive nature have hampered any comprehensive long-term program to convert free and abundant wind power into a major source of electricity. Utilities face challenges Variability of wind power is probably the prime challenge for utilities. Energy company officials worry about maintaining stability of the grid once wind power reaches 10 or 20 percent of total supply. However, smart grid technology as well as a variety of advanced storage devices, will help address those issues. Another challenge for utilities is accessing the best remaining wind resources. This will require investment in new transmission lines. Current regulatory and policy frameworks governing transmission may be a bottleneck for future growth. Grid operators, meanwhile, are changing scheduling protocols and placing a greater emphasis on new wind forecasting technologies as wind becomes a larger and larger portion of total supply. Wind resources are actually a form of solar energy. The uneven heating of the Earth's surface by the sun results in air movements as the atmosphere continuously tries to reach equilibrium. The tilt of the Earth and its daily rotation around the sun are the primary elements shaping wind patterns. However, large bodies of water and the geographic contours of mountain, forest, and desert landscapes (as well as other factors) also contribute to creating regions of the planet where winds blow frequently enough to be harnessed as fuel to generate electricity. The determination of whether potential wind resources can be developed into an economic source of electricity depends upon numerous infrastructure choices, among them the following: Selection of wind turbine technology Affordable interconnections to the transmission grid Siting issues that include concerns of nearby human populations about scenic views and diminished land values Environmental concerns regarding potential collisions of federally protected species of birds and bats with the spinning wind turbine blades Historically, wind power has been one of the lowest cost renewable technologies. This is one reason wind power has led the pack among renewable energy technologies in terms of new capacity additions over the past decade. The diversity in scale -- with wind turbines ranging from less than 1 kW for remote or residential applications all the way up to designs of 10 or even 15 MW for offshore sites -- has allowed wind power to meet the needs of a variety of applications around the world. Indeed, more efficient wind turbine technology has enabled operators to capture more power more of the time, contributing to the wind industry's 21st century growth. The next frontier Offshore wind power is the next frontier. The vast majority of existing capacity is utility-scale wind farms deployed on land. The best wind resources, however, are largely untapped because they are located at marine sites that cannot be owned or controlled in the traditional way. These sites are located offshore, typically in shallow ocean waters relatively close to urban population centers.

AT: OSW is Small

The link is unique but large---there are a huge number of OSW projects planned now---the aff causes them to be built---massively increases clean energy generation

NREL 10 National Renewable Energy Laboratory. “Large-Scale Offshore Wind Power in the United States,” http://www.nrel.gov/wind/pdfs/40745.pdf
Although the United States has built no offshore wind projects so far, about 20 projects representing more than 2,000 MW of capacity are in the planning and permitting process. Most of these activities are in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions, although projects are being considered along the Great Lakes, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Pacific Coast. The deep waters off the West Coast, however, pose a technology challenge for the near term. Untested regulatory and permitting requirements in federal waters (outside the three-nauticalmile state boundary) have posed major hurdles to development, but recent progress is clarifying these processes. Most notably, after 9 years in the permitting process, the Cape Wind project off of Massachusetts was offered the first commercial lease by the Department of Interior in April 2010.The U.S. Department of the Interior bears responsibility for reducing the uncertainties and potential risks to the marine environment and making the federal permitting process more predictable under the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (In June 2010, the Minerals and Management Service [MMS] was reorganized and renamed Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement [BOEM]). Some states have been proactive in promoting offshore wind demonstration projects in their own waters close to shore, which may provide a more efficient regulatory path to meet their renewable energy obligations, while jumpstarting a new locally grown industry. 1.3 A Powerful U.S. Resource Offshore winds tend to blow harder and more uniformly than on land, providing the potential for increased electricity generation and smoother, steadier operation than land-based wind power systems. The availability of these high offshore winds close to major U.S. coastal cities significantly reduces power transmission issues. The offshore wind resource in the United States has been sufficiently documented at a gross level to suggest an abundance of potential offshore wind sites as shown in Figure 1-2. The gross resource has been quantified by state, water depth, distance from shore, and wind class throughout a band extending out to 50 nautical miles from the U.S. coastline. This total gross wind resource is estimated at more than 4,000 GW, or roughly four times the generating capacity currently carried on the U.S. electric grid. This estimate assumes that one 5-MW wind turbine could be placed on every square kilometer of water with an annual average wind speed above 7.0 meters per second (m/s). As shown in Figure 1-2, this gross resource is distributed across three main depth categories, increasing from 1,071 GW over shallow water (30 meters), to 628 GW over transitional waters (between 30 and 60 meters in depth), and to 2,451 GW over deep water (deeper than 60 meters). However, this wind mapping effort does not currently account for a range of siting restrictions and public concerns. These gross resource values will likely shrink by 60% or more after all environmental and socioeconomic constraints have been taken into account. Further study is also required to determine optimal spacing of turbines based on array effects, which could reduce the density of the potential offshore wind development.

AT: Plan is Coop

No impact to U.S.-China cooperation---it’s impossible to sustain

Aaron L. Friedberg 12, Professor of Politics and International Affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University, September/October 2012, “Bucking Beijing,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 91, No. 5, p. 48-58
Recent events have raised serious doubts about both elements of this strategy. Decades of trade and talk have not hastened China's political liberalization. Indeed, the last few years have been marked by an intensified crackdown on domestic dissent. At the same time, the much-touted economic relationship between the two Pacific powers has become a major source of friction. And despite hopes for enhanced cooperation, Beijing has actually done very little to help Washington solve pressing international problems, such as North Korea's acquisition of nuclear weapons or Iran's attempts to develop them. Finally, far from accepting the status quo, China's leaders have become more forceful in attempting to control the waters and resources off their country's coasts. As for balancing, the continued buildup of China's military capabilities, coupled with impending cuts in U.S. defense spending, suggests that the regional distribution of power is set to shift sharply in Beijing's favor.

WHY WE CAN'T ALL JUST GET ALONG

TODAY, CHINA'S ruling elites are both arrogant and insecure. In their view, continued rule by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is essential to China's stability, prosperity, and prestige; it is also, not coincidentally, vital to their own safety and comfort. Although they have largely accepted some form of capitalism in the economic sphere, they remain committed to preserving their hold on political power.

The CCP'S determination to maintain control informs the regime's threat perceptions, goals, and policies. Anxious about their legitimacy, China's rulers are eager to portray themselves as defenders of the national honor. Although they believe China is on track to become a world power on par with the United States, they remain deeply fearful of encirclement and ideological subversion. And despite Washington's attempts to reassure them of its benign intentions, Chinese leaders are convinced that the United States aims to block China's rise and, ultimately, undermine its one-party system of government.¶ Like the United States, since the end of the Cold War, China has pursued an essentially constant approach toward its greatest external challenger. For the most part, Beijing has sought to avoid outright confrontation with the United States while pursuing economic growth and building up all the elements of its "comprehensive national power," a Chinese strategic concept that encompasses military strength, technological prowess, and diplomatic influence. Even as they remain on the defensive, however, Chinese officials have not been content to remain passive. They have sought incremental advances, slowly expanding China's sphere of influence and strengthening its position in Asia while working quietly to erode that of the United States. Although they are careful never to say so directly, they seek to have China displace the United States in the long run and to restore China to what they regard as its rightful place as the preponderant regional power. Chinese strategists do not believe that they can achieve this objective quickly or through a frontal assault. Instead, they seek to reassure their neighbors, relying on the attractive force of China's massive economy to counter nascent balancing efforts against it. Following the advice of the ancient military strategist Sun-tzu, Beijing aims to "win without fighting," gradually creating a situation in which overt resistance to its wishes will appear futile.

The failure to date to achieve a genuine entente between the United States and China is the result not of a lack of effort but of a fundamental divergence of interests. Although limited cooperation on specific issues might be possible, the ideological gap between the two nations is simply too great, and the level of trust between them too low, to permit a stable modus vivendi. What China's current leaders ultimately want -- regional hegemony -- is not something their counterparts in Washington are willing to give. That would run counter to an axiomatic goal of U.S. grand strategy, which has remained constant for decades: to prevent the domination of either end of the Eurasian landmass by one or more potentially hostile powers.

The reasons for this goal involve a mix of strategic, economic, and ideological considerations that will continue to be valid into the foreseeable future.

Companies in both countries say no

Even if joint ventures are successfully set up, they won’t last because of disappointment

Technology transfer¶ The approach to international cooperation by Chinese wind power equipment companies has been narrowly focused on the acquisition of advanced technology. Therein, China’s business actors have been as thoroughly disappointed as foreign companies with regards to gaining sustained access to China’s domestic wind power market. Due to the IPR concerns described above, international companies have been avoiding the setup of joint ventures with Chinese partners and the few attempts at joint ventures between Chinese and foreign wind turbine manufacturers have been unsuccessful. Even the original advantages of joint ventures formed under the “Riding the Wind Program” were not enough to bring about effective partnerships. The inability to establish a sustained market presence pointed to the ultimately disappointing yield of such partnerships for both sides.¶ In absence of alternatives, licensing agreements became the only viable and legal way for Chinese firms to attain technology from foreign companies. In the earlier stages of their development, Chinese companies such as Sinovel and Goldwind based their success on a combination of licensed foreign technology and an ability to produce at low manufacturing costs. However, foreign companies have been extremely careful not to provide cutting-edge technology to Chinese counterparts, protecting their innovation advantage at all times. Furthermore, China’s capabilities in onshore wind technology are rapidly catching up with those in Europe -- capabilities supported by public investments in technology development and R&D. This trend renders traditional licensing agreements increasingly obsolete as a form of international cooperation in China’s wind sector.¶ China’s disappointment with the quality of transferred technology is one of the central reasons for its lack of enthusiasm in facilitating international cooperation. China’s disdains also reflected in lackluster wind-related efforts under the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). While over 250 CDM wind energy projects have been conducted in China between 2006 and 2010 31 , these projects failed to meet Chinese stakeholders’ expectations regarding the introduction of advanced technologies to the Chinese market. As Gao Guangsheng, director general of climate change at Beijing’s National Development and Reform Commission explained, “CDM was making only a small difference to the attractiveness of wind power in China” 32 . The perceived low transfer rate of high-end technology through the CDM framework added to China’s tendency towards innovative self-reliance. Chinese officials are now expecting to fund 90% of the necessary investment to allow self-achievement of renewable energy targets.

China’s government needs to change policies—the aff doesn’t cause that

Paradigm shift: An adjustment of the regulatory framework of domestic competition is an essential prerequisite for the emergence of a new cooperation model. Thus far, the rules of competition have effectively shut out international actors from large segments of China’s wind market. But China’s strategy of protecting domestic industry at all costs in order to grow national champions produces diminishing returns. Chinese manufacturers need less protection; they will have to face global competition in the future and can increasingly benefit from advanced technology cooperation with international partners. At the same time, profit-making opportunities in China’s domestic wind market remain the main incentive for international companies to engage in these partnerships. Therefore, China’s leadership will have to make a credible effort to change regulatory practices in order to provide a more level playing field and convince European companies that advanced cooperation with Chinese partners will indeed open improved business opportunities in the Chinese domestic market.

Alt cause—Chinese regulations

Conrad 11 – Research associates with the Global Public Policy Institute [Björn Conrad (PhD candidate @ University of Trier. His research focuses on China’s domestic climate policy. MA in Chinese Studies, Political Science and Economics from the University of Trier and a Master in Public Policy from Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government.) & Mirjam Meissner (MA in Chinese Studies, Political Science and Economics from the Free University), “Catching a Second Wind Changing the Logic of International Cooperation in China’s Wind Energy Sector,” Global Public Policy Institute, GPPi Policy Paper No. 12, February 2011
Market access¶ The Chinese government’s attempts to balance the protection of its domestic industry from foreign competition against the positive effects of foreign companies’ involvement have shaped the regulatory framework of China’s wind power market. During the infant stage of China’s wind sector development, when wind power had not been elevated to an issue of high political priority, international engagement represented a cost and time effective way of expanding installed capacity and introducing new wind power technologies in China. With the growing importance of wind energy as a strategic technology of China’s long-term economic planning, the objective of fostering domestic innovation capacity and technological independence moved to the center of its strategy. As a result, the corresponding regulations, from high local content rates to the different pricing models as delineated above, created a highly uneven competitive environment. This effectively excluded foreign-owned companies from direct market participation. The protective market structures represent one of the central impediments to the emergence of collaborative structures in China’s wind energy sector.¶ After 2000, the tightly regulated avenues for international entry into China’s wind sector were effectively limited to technology licensing and joint ventures. The latter was utterly unsuccessful, primarily due to foreign companies’ reluctance to engage in the comprehensive sharing of intellectual property with Chinese partners. Yet the former became the most common model of international cooperation in China’s wind energy sector. Under licensing agreements, Chinese manufacturers produce wind power equipment with a foreign company’s technological design and pay royalties to the license giver. However, foreign companies only license older designs to Chinese manufacturers, whilst withholding the distribution of cuttingedge technology. The contribution of licensing agreements to the advancement and dissemination of effective climate technologies and the corresponding positive effects for global climate protection are accordingly limited. In addition, given the technological advancement of Chinese wind power equipment companies, the returns for China’s business actors from licensing agreements are quickly diminishing, making this only remaining form of international cooperation on China’s wind market increasingly obsolete.

Alt cause—IPR concerns

The vast potential for profit-making ensures the continuous attractiveness of China’s wind market for foreign companies despite setbacks and disappointments. As Lie Huihan of Suzlon Energy (China) put it: “Whatever the circumstances are, not being here is just not an option.” 30 However, the necessity to protect their innovative edge puts limits on international companies’ willingness to engage in comprehensive partnerships with Chinese counterparts. Especially in a relatively young business sector like wind energy, where international competition is shaped by rapid technology improvements and large competitive advantages through innovation, cutting-edge technology represents the basis for success. Therefore, concerns about IPR infringements (see box 1) have significant influence on international companies’ business decisions when it comes to entry into the Chinese wind market. Foreign firms cautiously avoid introducing sensible and up-to-date technology to China and have been reluctant to locate R&D activities in China. More recently, concerns about safeguarding technological advantages have been intensified by the prospects of Chinese manufacturers starting to export to markets outside China, making them global competitors. In light of these concerns, joint R&D projects between foreign and Chinese wind firms are exceedingly rare thus far. Given the Chinese side’s strong focus on technology advancement as the primary benefit of international cooperation, this dynamic significantly limits the scope of workable international collaboration in China’s wind sector.

2NC/1NR Intrnl Link—Clean Tech Zero-Sum

China’s ahead in clean tech development now and it’s zero sum—key to their economic growth

Bennhold 10 Katrin is a writer for the New York Times. “Race Is on to Develop Green, Clean Technology,” Jan 29, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/30/business/global/30davos.html?dbk&_r=0
DAVOS, SWITZERLAND — It is shaping up to be the Great Game of the 21st century. To top officials and business executives here at the World Economic Forum, Topic A this year was the race to develop greener, cleaner technology, which is emerging as one of the critical factors in reshaping the world economy as emerging powers snap at the heels of battered Western economies. With the United States and China sizing each other up across the Pacific and Europe seeking to maintain its economic stature, it is a battle for potentially millions of jobs and trillions of dollars in export revenues. The outcome — which pits a venture capital-driven market approach relying on government subsides against a top-down system of state capitalism — has the potential to influence how economic and political systems evolve. Concern that China may be edging ahead in potentially lucrative growth sectors like renewable energy was palpable here, where senior officials from the United States and Europe warned that the West could not afford to be complacent. “Six months ago my biggest worry was that an emissions deal would make American business less competitive compared to China,” said Senator Lindsay Graham, a Republican from South Carolina who has been deeply involved in climate change issues in Congress. “Now my concern is that every day that we delay trying to find a price for carbon is a day that China uses to dominate the green economy.” He added: “China has made a long-term strategic decision and they are going gang-busters.” Christine Lagarde, the French finance minister, agreed. “It’s a race and whoever wins that race will dominate economic development,” she said. “The emerging markets are well-placed.”

2NC/1NR Intrnl Link—Zero Sum

China’s ahead in clean tech development now and it’s zero sum—key to their economic growth

Bennhold 10 Katrin is a writer for the New York Times. “Race Is on to Develop Green, Clean Technology,” Jan 29, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/30/business/global/30davos.html?dbk&_r=0
DAVOS, SWITZERLAND — It is shaping up to be the Great Game of the 21st century. To top officials and business executives here at the World Economic Forum, Topic A this year was the race to develop greener, cleaner technology, which is emerging as one of the critical factors in reshaping the world economy as emerging powers snap at the heels of battered Western economies. With the United States and China sizing each other up across the Pacific and Europe seeking to maintain its economic stature, it is a battle for potentially millions of jobs and trillions of dollars in export revenues. The outcome — which pits a venture capital-driven market approach relying on government subsides against a top-down system of state capitalism — has the potential to influence how economic and political systems evolve. Concern that China may be edging ahead in potentially lucrative growth sectors like renewable energy was palpable here, where senior officials from the United States and Europe warned that the West could not afford to be complacent. “Six months ago my biggest worry was that an emissions deal would make American business less competitive compared to China,” said Senator Lindsay Graham, a Republican from South Carolina who has been deeply involved in climate change issues in Congress. “Now my concern is that every day that we delay trying to find a price for carbon is a day that China uses to dominate the green economy.” He added: “China has made a long-term strategic decision and they are going gang-busters.” Christine Lagarde, the French finance minister, agreed. “It’s a race and whoever wins that race will dominate economic development,” she said. “The emerging markets are well-placed.”

China’s leading now but renewable incentives in the US reverse it

Ron Pernick 11, Managing Director, Clean Edge, “The Future of Clean Tech and Why I Can't Stop Thinking About China”, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2011/11/the-future-of-clean-tech-and-why-i-cant-stop-thinking-about-china

The China Development Bank (CDB) is being relentless in its funding of clean-tech concerns. While American politicians battle it out over Solyndra’s collapse and potential loss to the government of $528 million, the Chinese are pumping billions into their clean-tech concerns, knowing full well that some of them will fail. The CDB put more than $30 billion in credit into its burgeoning solar companies in 2010, including Suntech Power, Trina, and Yingli. It recently announced financial commitments to ensure that its fledgling wind industry can join the ranks of GE, Vestas, and Siemens, allocating at least $15 billion in state-backed credit to China's biggest windmill makers Sinovel Wind Group and Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology. And China has plans to invest some $45 billion in smart-grid companies and technologies alone over the next five years. ¶ These investments haven’t gone unnoticed in the U.S., and have been front and center in recent complaints that have claimed that China’s solar industry, for example, has an unfair trade advantage.¶ One of the other things that make China and the U.S. so different is that Chinese national and regional leadership is now fully aligned behind clean tech as an economic development and jobs growth strategy. They aren’t fighting amongst themselves about whether they should support clean energy, but are instead fighting to lead in the sector. To put it simply, China believes in renewables. At the same time, our inept Congress dukes it out over one bad investment and seems increasingly polarized at every turn. We have states like California, Oregon, Connecticut, New York, and Colorado that are committed to clean tech, but without federal support they are left to figure out the puzzle mostly on their own. ¶ China is getting ready to outsmart us. “When you look at the political leaders in China they are mostly scientists and engineers, many from the power industry,” says Jefferies managing director Jesse Pichel. “But in the U.S. politicians are mostly lawyers.” And it’s not just business and policy talent that seems to be expanding, but student achievement. Chinese students in Shanghai recently scored tops in the OECD Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) evaluation tests for math, science, and reading. It’s important to note that PISA usually evaluates student performance for entire countries, so while Shanghai’s results are impressive they are not necessarily representative of all of China. ¶ China’s clean-tech push, of course, will be riddled with future obstacles, potholes, and challenges. For example, approximately a third of China’s wind power had not been connected to the grid by the end of 2010, highlighting issues with grid connectivity keeping up with new capacity additions. There have also been complaints of everything from exploding wind turbines to pollution concerns at solar PV manufacturing plants, demonstrating serious environmental and quality control issues that could cause significant roadblocks in the nation’s push for clean-tech dominance. And, ongoing issues surrounding weak intellectual property protections in China continue to threaten foreign investment and participation within the country.¶ But do you think these business and infrastructure issues will unravel China’s commitment to its clean-tech build out? I don’t think so. Instead, China is redoubling its efforts in order to own as much of the clean-tech sector as it possibly can.¶ The U.S., on the other hand, has some political leaders that are ready to call it quits. The U.S. “can't compete with China to make solar panels and wind turbines,” U.S. Representative Cliff Stearns (R-Fla.) recently told National Public Radio. Imagine if our earlier tech revolutionaries in aerospace, computing, and the Internet had policymakers with such weakened spines -- we’d be a mere shadow of our current selves. ¶ No doubt America faces its own unique challenges, but it’s not time to give up. Instead, let’s tap our entrepreneurial spirit, regain our clean-tech policy backbone, and get back in the business of 21st century innovation and leadership. The Chinese, I’m certain, will be doing nothing less.

2NC/1NR Intrnl Link—Zero-Sum (Supply Chain/Firm Relocation)

The whole supply chain follows demand---means leadership is zero-sum---if they solve their advantages they definitely link to the DA

Caperton et al 11 Richard W. Caperton is a Policy Analyst with the Energy Opportunity team at the Center for American Progress; Kate Gordon is Vice President for Energy Policy at the Center; Bracken Hendricks is a Senior Fellow at the Center; and Daniel J. Weiss is a Senior Fellow and Director of Climate Strategy at the Center. “Helping America Win the Clean Energy Race,” Feb 7, http://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/issues/2011/02/pdf/ces_brief.pdf
This is no way to build a modern industry. Already we have seen cutting-edge solar power manufacturing companies begin to close their doors, either permanently or to move to other countries with strong and dedicated clean energy markets. Evergreen Solar Inc., for example, recently announced plans to close its Massachusetts plant to put more funds into solar panel manufacturing in China. The company followed on the heels of SpectraWatt Inc. in New York and Solyndra Inc. in California closing some of their facilities. As General Electric Co.’s chairman and chief executive, Jeff Immelt, said at last year’s ARPA-E summit, those countries with strong demand for renewable energy products will naturally pull these companies into their borders because “innovation and supply chain strength gets developed where the demand is the greatest. Similarly, wind manufacturers in Iowa, once a state leader in this industry, are laying off workers as new orders fail to materialize. Leading global financier Deutsche Bank decided to move billions of investment dollars out of the U.S. clean energy market, and into China and Europe as soon as it was clear there would be no comprehensive climate and energy legislation coming out of the 111th Congress. China and our other economic competitors in Asia, Europe, and emerging markets are not waiting for America to regroup. The home team can win the clean energy race These stories share a common theme: investment dollars leav[e]ing the United States to be deployed among our global competitors who have fully embraced the economic and environmental imperative to enter a new era of cleaner, more sustainable and domestic energy. China is the most striking example. In 2009, even as the United States was installing more wind turbines, China driven by stable long-term demand for its products, became the world’s largest manufacturer of wind power systems. It was already the world’s largest solar manufacturer and developer of efficient nuclear and coal technologies. All these countries have comprehensive programs in place to spur robust and stable demand for low-carbon energy, which then creates a market for businesses to manufacture and install the technologies to meet that demand. Last June, China announced its plan to meet a renewable energy standard of 20 percent by 2020, matching the European Union’s target. Germany has set a target of 60 percent by 2050. The country already gets 16 percent of all its power from renewables, well on its way to meeting this ambitious goal, and some think it may reach 100 percent by 2050. Denmark has gone a step further, actually announcing its intention to become 100 percent independent of fossil fuels by 2050, something that at least one of its islands has already achieved. This occurred in a country that in 1970 was almost completely dependent on foreign fossil fuels. These countries prove that strong clean energy standards build growing economies. But even more than that, strong clean energy standards are now imperative if we are to compete on the same playing field as China and Europe. America over the course of the 20th century took command of the Industrial Revolution and the communications revolution, and then led the world into the Information Age. It is time for us to lead the clean-tech revolution, too. Today, others are beating us to the punch, not because we lack the technology and innovation to lead this new revolution, but because we are not providing the market signals needed for our private-sector entrepreneurs need to invest over the long haul. This clean energy investment gap is rapidly becoming the greatest threat to America’s technology leadership.

Renewables companies are going to China now because of lack of incentives—empirics prove

Freedman 11 David is a Guest Contributor @ MIT’s Technology Review. “China Beckons for Green-Energy Startups,” Sept 27, http://www.technologyreview.com/article/425560/china-beckons-for-green-energy-startups/
Many in the U.S. have an interest in getting clean-tech ventures off the ground. Among them are the government, capital markets, industry, and science labs. But China seems ready to do more on every front to make such projects happen, and to do it right now—without red tape or concern about economic turmoil. Leading-edge battery maker Boston Power appears to have come to that conclusion. The company is set to move to China, where the government is helping to cut the firm a $125-million deal that no one else is likely to match. The deal could leave the company poised to be a part of what could be a mushrooming market there in electric vehicles. “This is really the next chapter for us,” says Christina Lampe-Onnerud, who founded Boston Power in 2005. Lampe-Onnerud, a former star technology consultant at Arthur D. Little and top scientist at Bell Communications Research, has been much lauded in the world of high-tech green startups, thanks to Boston Power’s innovations in the chemistry of lithium-ion batteries, and to the success the company has had in selling the resulting higher-capacity, faster-charging batteries to Hewlett-Packard for laptops. Boston Power seemed even hotter in 2008 when Lampe-Onnerud announced she was setting her sights on producing batteries for the electric-vehicle market. But this market has been slow to materialize and highly competitive, pitting Boston Power against other high-flying startups, including A123 Systems, based in Waltham, Massachusetts. In 2009, Boston Power failed to win a substantial loan guarantee from the U.S. Department of Energy that would have financed a Massachusetts factory—the company currently manufactures via Taiwanese partner GP Batteries. That same year, a deal backed by the Swedish government to help put the company’s batteries in electric vehicles from foundering Saab went nowhere. The new deal should put Boston Power, which has raised nearly $200 million in funding, in a better position to compete for at least a foothold in what is expected to eventually be a large global market for electric-vehicle batteries. The deal was set up by GSR Ventures, based in Beijing and Palo Alto, California. GSR has more than $1 billion under management and is investing mostly in high-tech startups doing business in China. Neither GSR’s managing director, Sonny Wu, nor Lampe-Onnerud would provide details on the exact breakdown of the new financing, but both confirmed that the $125-million value represents a mix of private equity and Chinese-government grants, low-interest loans, and financial and tax incentives. The equity investment comes from venture-capital firms Oak Investment Partners and Foundation Asset Management, which are previous Boston Power investors, as well as from GSR. And the $125 million might not be all there is to the deal, hinted Lampe-Onnerud. “Even more will unfold over the next six months,” she says. Lampe-Onnerud says the company will soon break ground on a new plant near Shanghai that is expected to turn out 18 million battery cells a year, about three times the company’s current capacity. And while the company is retaining some R&D capabilities in the U.S.—it is headquartered in Westborough, Massachusetts—most of its engineering operations will be based near Beijing, and the company is laying off about a third of its 100 U.S. employees. GSR’s Wu is becoming chairman of Boston Power in the deal, essentially taking the reins from Lampe-Onnerud, who says she will remain on the board and will continue to work closely with the company, but will not move to China. The company is currently looking for a CEO to replace Keith Schmid, who took over the slot in February from Lampe-Onnerud. Lampe-Onnerud says the company was driven to strike a China deal because the country has demonstrated an intention to use generous incentives and funding to push its clean-tech markets, and its electric-vehicle market in particular, versus the shakier support in the United States. “China, by far, is the biggest market for us, and this was a chance to get to profitability very quickly,” she explains. “We would have loved to manufacture here, but every entrepreneur in this business who wants to stay in the U.S. will have to make some tough choices.” Wu seconds the notion that China’s willingness to throw government resources at electric-vehicle growth makes the country increasingly hard to resist for startups in the industry. The Chinese government has already started building a large network of vehicle-recharging stations in major cities, he says, and has stated goals to get at least 300,000 electric vehicles on the road within two years, goosing the market with incentives worth more than $15,000 per car. “Being in China has become a necessary and sufficient condition for success in electric vehicles,” he adds. “U.S. startups are feeling they need to be in China for this market in the same way that Israeli high-tech companies in the early 1990s felt they had to be in the U.S.” Marianne Wu, a partner at Mohr Davidow Ventures with experience in Asian markets, also agrees that China is likely to prove irresistible to a growing number of startups in the electric-vehicle and other clean-tech markets. The fact that China is simply buying more cars and just about everything else due to its rapid industrialization, along with its lower manufacturing costs, are reasons enough to focus operations there, she says, adding that any government help with financing is icing on the cake. “The Chinese government seems willing to provide large incentives to companies in industries that it views as strategic, to foster these industries through infancy,” she says. “EV batteries appear to be one of them, along with renewable energy in general.”

It’s zero-sum---demand is key---plan causes firms to relocate to the US

Bradsher 10 Keith is a writer at the NY Times. “China Leading Global Race to Make Clean Energy,” 2010, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/31/business/energy-environment/31renew.html?pagewanted=all
The United States and other countries are offering incentives to develop their own renewable energy industries, and Mr. Obama called for redoubling American efforts. Yet many Western and Chinese executives expect China to prevail in the energy-technology race.¶ Multinational corporations are responding to the rapid growth of China’s market by building big, state-of-the-art factories in China. Vestas of Denmark has just erected the world’s biggest wind turbine manufacturing complex here in northeastern China, and transferred the technology to build the latest electronic controls and generators.¶ “You have to move fast with the market,” said Jens Tommerup, the president of Vestas China. “Nobody has ever seen such fast development in a wind market.”¶ Renewable energy industries here are adding jobs rapidly, reaching 1.12 million in 2008 and climbing by 100,000 a year, according to the government-backed Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association.¶ Yet renewable energy may be doing more for China’s economy than for the environment. Total power generation in China is on track to pass the United States in 2012 — and most of the added capacity will still be from coal.¶ China intends for wind, solar and biomass energy to represent 8 percent of its electricity generation capacity by 2020. That compares with less than 4 percent now in China and the United States. Coal will still represent two-thirds of China’s capacity in 2020, and nuclear and hydropower most of the rest.¶ As China seeks to dominate energy-equipment exports, it has the advantage of being the world’s largest market for power equipment. The government spends heavily to upgrade the electricity grid, committing $45 billion in 2009 alone. State-owned banks provide generous financing.¶ China’s top leaders are intensely focused on energy policy: on Wednesday, the government announced the creation of a National Energy Commission composed of cabinet ministers as a “superministry” led by Prime Minister Wen Jiabao himself.¶ Regulators have set mandates for power generation companies to use more renewable energy. Generous subsidies for consumers to install their own solar panels or solar water heaters have produced flurries of activity on rooftops across China.¶ China’s biggest advantage may be its domestic demand for electricity, rising 15 percent a year. To meet demand in the coming decade, according to statistics from the International Energy Agency, China will need to add nearly nine times as much electricity generation capacity as the United States will.¶ So while Americans are used to thinking of themselves as having the world’s largest market in many industries, China’s market for power equipment dwarfs that of the United States, even though the American market is more mature. That means Chinese producers enjoy enormous efficiencies from large-scale production.

2NC/1NR Intrnl Link—Zero-Sum (Investment)

Investment is also zero-sum---plan causes flight from China by creating certainty in the US

Luke Schoen 12, World Resources Institute, “CLEAN TECH’S RISE, PART I: Will the U.S. and China Reap the Mutual Benefits?”, China FAQS issue brief, April 2012, http://www.chinafaqs.org/files/chinainfo/ChinaFAQs_IssueBrief1_MutualBenefits.pdf
China itself, meanwhile, is becoming a critical market. In¶ recent years, it has become the world’s largest source of,¶ and destination for, investment in clean energy.¶ 9¶ China is¶ expected to invest at least $300 billion in domestic clean¶ energy technologies over the next five years¶ 10¶ as part of its¶ drive to curb greenhouse gas emissions, gain economic¶ benefits, and improve energy security, in pursuit of¶ aggressive renewable energy deployment targets in its¶ 12¶ th¶ Five-Year Plan¶ 11¶ (see table).¶ “There is no doubt that the¶ country remains committed to the ongoing development¶ of its renewable energy sector,” notes a recent analysis¶ from Ernst & Young.¶ 12¶ The investment race, meanwhile,¶ is heating up. In 2010, China invested a world-leading $45¶ billion in clean energy, while the U.S. slipped to second¶ place with about $33.7 billion.¶ In 2011, however, the U.S.¶ recaptured the lead, with investment surging to¶ $48 billion, while China invested $45.5 billion.¶ 13¶ China’s clear commitment to clean energy has made it¶ “attractive to U.S. and international investors” because it¶ offers “the certainty they are looking for before investing,”¶ notes Deborah Seligsohn, a China specialist with the ¶ World Resources Institute and WRI’s ChinaFAQs project.¶ Companies including First Solar, GE, Duke Energy,¶ American Electric Power, and many other U.S. firms have¶ all invested or expressed interest in investing in China,¶ and “increasingly entrepreneurs with new ideas are¶ looking to China to make those ideas become a reality.”

Financing is leaving the US for China now because of lack of production incentives

Romm 11 Dr. Joseph Romm is a Senior Fellow @ American Progress. “United States slipped to third in clean energy race,” March 29, http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/03/29/207777/united-states-third-clean-energy-race/
“The United States’ position as a leading destination for clean energy investment is declining because its policy framework is weak and uncertain,” said Phyllis Cuttino, director of Pew’s Clean Energy Program. “We are at risk of losing even more financing to countries like China, Germany and India, which have adopted strong policies such as renewable energy standards, carbon reduction targets and/or incentives for investment and production. In today’s global economic race, the United States can’t afford to be to be a follower in this sector.” That China passed us a couple of years ago should have been a wake-up call (see Steven Chu on why China’s bid for clean energy leadership should be our “Sputnik Moment”). Dropping to third behind Germany, though, should be equally worrisome. It means U.S. clean energy manufacturing is being squeezed from every side. Michael Liebreich, CEO of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, added, “The United States remains the global leader in clean energy innovation, receiving 75 percent of all venture capital investment in the sector, a total of $6 billion in 2010, but the U.S. has not been creating demand for deployment of clean energy. As a result it is losing out on opportunities to attract investment, create manufacturing capabilities and spur job growth. For example, worldwide, China is now the leading manufacturer of wind turbines and solar panels.”

Plan doesn’t access the impact since it doesn’t resolve Chinese growth and offshore wind is key---it’s zero sum

Harvey 11 Fiona is an environment correspondent at the Guardian. “Developing world ups ante in cleantech 'arms race',” Oct 18, http://www.guardian.co.uk/sustainable-business/eveloping-world-lead-wind-power-renewable-energy
Last year was a turning point in the global race to develop clean technology. It marked the first time that more new wind power generating capacity was installed in developing countries than in the rich world. China led the way, according to the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), and now has the most wind generating capacity in the world, thanks to favourable government policies. A record capacity of 19 gigawatts was added in China last year, taking the total to more than 42GW. India also showed strong growth, in line with the government target of adding more than 10GW of new capacity by 2012, and there are industry estimates that 100GW is possible. According to GWEC, the growth illustrates the advantages of investing in green power. "This puts an end to the assertion that wind power is a premium technology only for rich countries which cannot be deployed at scale in other markets," it says in its annual report. "It is also testament to the inherent attractiveness of wind power for countries striving to diversify their energy mix, improve their security of supply in the face of rapidly growing demand and relieve national budgets of the burden of expensive fossil fuel imports at volatile prices." In the developed world, by contrast, growth was inhibited by the financial crisis and recession: while €50bn was invested and about 39GW added around the world, the overall market for wind energy was static compared with 2009. The US market fared particularly badly, with only half as much new wind capacity built as in the previous year. Europe's growth also slowed down, with 7.5% less capacity added than in 2009, according to GWEC. Even an increase in the offshore wind market and growth in eastern Europe was not enough to make up for the slack elsewhere. The rapid growth of wind energy in emerging economies also shows how power is shifting in the clean technology world. Three of the world's top 10 wind turbine manufacturers are now Chinese, and the country makes turbines capable of producing 30GW a year, of which an increasing number are now destined for the export market. India also boasts 17 companies making wind power equipment, the biggest and best known being Suzlon. By 2013, according to estimates for the World Institute for Sustainable Energy, Indian companies will be making turbines to produce 17GW a year, many to be exported around the world. Other forms of clean technology are also growing rapidly in the developing world – China, for instance, is also the world's biggest manufacturer of solar power equipment, the vast majority of it exported. European governments facing severe fiscal crises have given less attention to promoting clean technology than in the past, and some have cut back on subsidies to save money. But this neglect carries a potential cost and a risk, as if Europe falls behind it will struggle to make up the lost ground. Connie Hedegaard, climate change commissioner for the EU, warned a European Wind Energy Association event earlier this year that unless governments upped their game, Europe as a whole would lose out. "We should not be losing this race, because these are the growth industries of the future, that will generate wealth and create jobs," she said. In the US, there are similar fears among clean technology advocates. President Obama called in 2009 for a doubling of renewable energy within three years, but this now looks less likely to be achieved. There are doubts over some of the support available for renewables – many of the relevant grants and loans are due to expire this year, and there is hostility towards such mechanisms from some quarters. The American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) has called for support to be stepped up, against attacks from some politicians and sections of the media. Rob Gramlich, senior director of public policy for AWEA, claims that conventional forms of electricity have benefitted from subsidies for years. "Tax incentives have been the most effective means of bringing new energy sources to the market," he says. "Previously they brought us much of our domestic oil and gas supply, including the new shale gas resources. They typically apply in the early and middle stages of development, so it's not surprising that in any given year, new sources receive much more than conventional sources." Steven Lang, clean tech leader for the UK and Ireland at Ernst and Young, says government policies are one of the key determinants for how fast new clean technologies grow. "Governments need to send a very clear signal to the market, that they are committed to this. Financial incentives are also very important," he says. Lang points to Alex Salmond, the leader of Scotland's devolved administration, who has put renewable energy firmly at the heart of his economic agenda, and a particular focus on new marine technologies such as wave and tidal power. The first minister told a conference in September: "I'm confident that by 2025 we will produce at least 100 per cent of our electricity needs from renewables alone, and together with other sources it will enable us to become a net exporter of clean, green energy." Salmond even won the praise of Al Gore recently for his "inspiration". The world is engaged in a "clean tech arms race", Lang says, but he argues that all countries have opportunities in different types of clean technology. For instance, in the UK offshore wind is likely to be a winner, and has been championed by the government because it avoids the problems associated with obtaining planning permission for onshore wind farms. Carbon capture and storage is another potential British winner, if government plans for as many as four demonstration projects are successful.

Wind is symbolically key to clean tech leadership

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