Arctic War
Either they are military or they can’t solve forward arctic power projection
Jones 6
(ANITA K. JONES, CHAIR, POLAR RESEARCH BOARD, NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, “U.S. REPRESENTATIVE FRANK LOBIONDO (R-NJ) HOLDS A HEARING ON THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCE ICEBREAKER REPORT” pg online at proquest//sd)
Over the past couple of decades, the government has deployed a fleet of four icebreakers, three multi-mission ships operated by the Coast Guard. And by multi-mission, I mean that they support the conduct of science as well as the missions of the Coast Guard, homeland security, maritime safety, national security, protection of natural resources. In addition, the National Science Foundation operates a single mission ship that's solely dedicated to scientific research. Today, two of the multi-mission ships, the Polar Star and the Polar Sea, are at the end of their service life, 30 years. Deferred maintenance, absence of an upgrade program to extend their lifetime, and lack of replacement has left the U.S. with a multi-mission fleet of one ship. And the U.S. is at risk of being unable to meet these interests in the polar regions, particularly in the Arctic. In the Arctic, the icepack has thinned and retreated dramatically. This committee anticipates greater human presence in the Arctic with increased economic activity, as you alluded to. Oil companies have purchased a large number of leases in the sea and on the land of the Alaskan North Slope. Adventure travel to the North increases. The number of ice-strength and tankers in the world will shortly double, incurring new traffic across the north of Russia and through the Bering Strait, we expect. Mining will be more cost effective in northern Alaska as ice retreat allows longer periods to load or ship. Greater human activity will increase the need for the Coast Guard to assert a more active and influential presence in the Arctic to protect the nation's economic, scientific, environmental and foreign policy interests. This requires the use of icebreakers. The retreat of the sea margin is not uniform or predictable. Conditions may become more or less difficult. And in our conversations with the Coast Guard, they have told us that they consider this their mission and actually look forward to it. The money needs that are documented in our report lead the committee to conclude that the nation requires a multi-mission fleet. From a national point of view, from a national-policy point of view, the Coast Guard's missions transcend the support of science. The science missions are quite complementary and this has been demonstrated admirably both with science missions on the Healy and McMurdo break-ins using the Polar Sea and the Polar Star. While McMurdo break-in does not have to be preformed by a military service, the break-in does require a reliably controlled ship. And this committee concluded that that means U.S. owned, U.S. operated and U.S. flagged. However, performing McMurdo break-in is compatible with the other demands on the multi-mission Coast Guard fleet. And the committee notes that a Coast Guard ship asserts the tangible U.S. presence, a leased ship does not. So from the total fleet perspective, the committee believes that the Coast Guard should operate this multi-mission, that it should be provided sufficient resources and maintenance budget to support an increased, regular and influential presence in the Arctic.
China Energy Security 1nc – us-china co-op Status quo cooperation solves – mutual dialogue
Dexing 14
Qin Dexing, China Daily, 7/11/14, (“China, US will enhance energy cooperation”, http://www.ecns.cn/business/2014/07-11/123685.shtml)//AW
**Quotes: Wu Xinxiong – head of National Energy Administration, Ernest Moniz – US Secretary of Energy, and Wang Haohao – analysit with energy consultancy Shandong Longzhong Information Technology Co.**
China's National Energy Administration and the US Department of Energy inked an agreement on Thursday that will see the two sides work together to bolster China's strategic crude reserves.
Wu Xinxiong, head of the NEA, and Ernest Moniz, US secretary of energy, signed the memorandum of understanding and discussed cooperation opportunities in sectors like shale gas, liquefied natural gas trading, nuclear projects and non-fossil energy.
"China and the United States have many cooperation opportunities in the energy sector, which is significant for both countries," Wu said. He said the two sides should further expand energy cooperation.
Moniz said efforts should be made to strengthen cooperation and find solutions for existing problems through China-US strategic and economic dialogues.
As China's economy grows, the country's crude oil demand has been increasing rapidly with an estimated annual growth of 6.7 percent during the last 10 years.
In 2013, China used 487 million metric tons of crude, up 2.8 percent year-on-year. Up to 58.1 percent of the supply came from imports, according to the CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute.
According to experts, creating an oil storage system is crucial for China's energy security, especially when weighed against the growing demand and rising dependency on foreign supplies.
According to the institute, by the end of 2013, China had established 24 crude oil storage bases with total capacity of 46.23 million cubic meters for commercial use.
Earlier reports indicated that the US was keen to be a part of China's crude reserve system development as it felt it would help stabilize the international crude market.
The agreement gave further evidence that the two nations were keen on stepping up energy cooperation.
According to a report released on April 10 by the US Energy Information Administration, crude oil reserves in the US reached their highest level since 1976 in 2013. Proven crude reserves in the US rose for the fourth consecutive year in 2012 to 33 billion barrels, a 15 percent year-on-year growth.
"The cooperation between China and the US on crude reserves will help balance the energy output and consumption to some extent," said Wang Haohao, an analyst with energy consultancy Shandong Longzhong Information Technology Co.
1nc – china-arab co-op China-Arab cooperation is growing – recent summit proves
Martel 14
Frances Martel, Currently attending Fordham University School of Law, BA in Government from Harvard University, 6/3/14, (“CHINA SEEKS ENHANCED COOPERATION WITH ARAB WORLD ON NUCLEAR ENERGY, SPACE ISSUES”, http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2014/06/03/China-Seeks-Enhanced-Cooperation-With-Arab-World-on-Nuclear-Energy-Space-Issues)//AW
The China-Arab Cooperative forum is celebrating its tenth anniversary, and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi noted in a statement that the Chinese government is increasingly interested in expanding trade and economic ties with the region, particularly in developing industries like nuclear energy.
In statements provided to Chinese news agency Xinhua, Wang said the forum's meeting, scheduled for this Thursday, would focus on expanding cooperation in sectors that have yet to be fully developed in relationships between Arab countries and China. "China wants to reinforce cooperation with Arab states in both traditional sectors like energy, trade and infrastructure and emerging sectors like nuclear energy, space and new energy with a view to sharing development benefits and promoting common prosperity," Wang noted, highlighting the Silk Road ties between China and the Arab world.
Arab countries – which will include in this summit Bahrain, Jordan, Yemen, and others – are "natural and important cooperation partners for China," according to Wang. Xinhua makes note of highlighting China's support for Palestine's "right to be an independent state." In addition to political support, China has greatly expanded its economic reach in the region. According to a statement from the Chinese government, trade between China and the region has expanded to $239 billion, and China has become the largest trading partner of nine Arab countries.
The summit will extend talks between Arab countries and China, both sides of which have expressed an interest in expanding trade. Wang went on a tour of various Middle Eastern countries in December, including Saudi Arabia, and met with several members of the Gulf Cooperation Council. At the time, the Agence France-Presse reported that Gulf Countries appeared open to stronger ties with China that would allow them to rely less on economic relations with the United States. Saudi Arabian authorities expressed optimism at the time towards opening further trade with China.
While China has expressed interest in expanding trade into other sectors, the oil market has also increased with many Middle Eastern countries. OPEC announced in May that much of its increased demand for oil is coming from China. "Almost half of annual oil demand growth is seen coming from China and the Middle East," a report released by the organization explained.
In addition to expanding trade with Arab countries and the greater Middle East, China has extended its global offensive to become more involved in world economies. In February, the Chinese government announced its intentions to found a China-Latin America trade forum this year that would work similarly to the Arab arrangement. China has also made inroads in trade with a number of African nations.
1nc – diversification solve Diversification now – energy revolution
Cai 14
Peter Cai, China Analyst for Business Spectator, 6/16/14, (“China readies for an energy revolution”, http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/6/16/china/china-readies-energy-revolution)//AW
China is the world’s largest consumer and producer of energy and emitter of carbon. The country’s voracious appetite for oil, coal, gas and renewable energy is fundamentally re-shaping the global energy landscape.
China’s slowing economy and the transformational structural change will have a profound impact on the ways it produces and consumes energy. The growth rate for the country’s energy demand is set to decelerate from about 8.4 per cent to between 4 and 5 per cent, according to the Development and Research Centre of the State Council, the Chinese cabinet. However, the absolute size of demand will continue to rise.
In light of the country’s economic structural shift, worsening environmental problems, and advances in new technology, Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for an energy revolution in China.
Speaking on Friday night at a meeting of the Central Leading Group on Financial and Economic Affairs, the country’s highest decision-making body on economic issues, Xi said China must work to safeguard its energy security.
“To ensure national energy security, China needs to take steps to rein in irrational energy use and control the country’s energy consumption by fully implementing energy-saving policies,” he said.
Xi, who arguably has greater power vested in him than any Chinese leader since Deng Xiaoping, made five important points about China’s energy industry that could have lasting consequences for the global energy sector.
The one that will have the most impact on Australia is the push to diversify China’s energy sources. Xi emphasised the importance of having a diverse range of energy suppliers and sources to ensure the country’s energy demand and security. Chinese authorities will place new prominence on clean coal technology and upgrade polluting coal fired power stations.
In addition, China will explore and develop new sources of energy beyond coal and petroleum including natural gas, renewable energy such as solar, and wind and nuclear power. Evidence from past years is already showing strong signs of change.
For example, China’s coal consumption only increased 1.85 per cent between 2012 and 2013, compared to an annualised growth rate of 8.3 per cent between 2002 and 2011. On the other hand, the country’s demand for natural gas increased 15.4 per cent in 2012 and 13.9 per cent last year.
Meanwhile, the country has experienced explosive growth in renewable energy p3roduction, with wind and solar power increasing 35.3 per cent and 122 per cent respectively in 2013. At the moment, nearly two thirds of China’s energy consumption is powered by coal. Beijing wants to reduce that reliance to 52.4 per cent by 2023.
Xi also called for more international cooperation in energy production, exploring further opportunities in Central Asia, Middle East, Americas and Africa. Beijing clearly wants to diversify its sources of energy supply to ensure better energy security. China recently sealed the $400 billion natural gas supply contract with Russia, securing China a major source of cleaner fuel from its neighbour.
State-owned giants dominate the country’s energy sector from petroleum exploration to electricity generation. The cosy monopoly is a source of corruption as well as inefficiency. Xi promised more market-oriented pricing reform to build a competitive energy market.
There have been calls to open up the country’s closed exploration sector to private capital and especially for unconventional gas industry.
The Chinese president also emphasised the need to invest more in renewable energy sector as part of the broader strategy to upgrade the country’s industrial structure. The country is already the world’s largest builder of wind turbines and the largest producer of solar photovoltaic cells.
Chinese authorities see the development of renewable energy not only as a solution to address its energy demand and worsening environmental problem but also part of the plan to overtake Western competitors in emerging sectors.
This scenario is non-unique—China has already joined the Arctic council—this resolves all energy security issues and trade benefits—also proves Russian deal solves—this card obliterates their whole advantage
Blank, Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute, 2014
(Stephen, 6/20/2014, “China's Arctic Strategy: Since gaining Arctic Council observer status, China has been quick to move on its interests.” http://thediplomat.com/2013/06/chinas-arctic-strategy/?allpages=yes DA: 8/1/2014, dobp)
China has certainly been busy since it won observer status at the May Arctic Council summit in Kiruna, Sweden. First, Yu Zhengasheng, Chairman of China’s Political Consultative Conference, visited Finland, Sweden and Denmark with an eye to boosting general trade and cooperation, particularly in the Arctic. China then announced an expanded research and scientific polar institute that will collaborate with Nordic research centers to study climate change, its impact and desired Arctic policies and legislation. With this, Beijing made clear it did not intend to be a passive member of the Council; it planned to have a real say in its future proceedings. China National Offshore Oil Corporation meanwhile announced a deal with Iceland’s Eykon Energy firm to explore off Iceland’s Southeast coast. State-owned mining firm Sichan Xinue Mining has also agreed to finance a major international mining project at Greenland’s Isua iron-ore field*. If this venture succeeds, other Chinese state-owned mining companies, such as Jiangxi Zhongrun Mining and Jiangxi Union Mining, which have prospected in Greenland but have not yet started production, would then join it to explore for gold and copper. And other projects like aluminum smelting are already taking shape or will begin, espeically if the Isua project is successful. These moves come on top of recently announced deals with Rosneft and Gazprom to explore Arctic fields for oil and gas. At the recent Sino-Russian summit, China concluded a contract with Rosneft to triple the size of current oil deliveries to China to 900,000 BPD, putting it on a par with Saudi deliveries to China, according to a recent report in the Financial Times print edition. But Rosneft won that contract only by accepting further huge Chinese loans of $25-30 billion as cash infusions and agreeing to facilitate the acquisition of oil and gas assets in Russia by Sinopec, an oil and gas company. In other words, as part of its huge energy deals in the Arctic and the Russian Far East (RFE), China has added to Rosneft’s already sizable indebtedness to China, going back to the 2009 deal for the East Siberia Pacific Ocean pipeline. This indebtedness and the size of the planned oil deliveries from Rosneft will give China substantial leverage in the region. Rosneft will consequently consider Sinopec’s participation in its large-scale project in the RFE, namely the Eastern Petrochemical Refinery jointly established in 2007 by Rosneft and Sinopec’s rival CNPC, China National Petrochemical Corporation. While China will loan Rosneft $2 billion backed by 25 years of oil supply, Rosneft will boost oil exports to China by 800,000 metric tons this year. Annual exports may reach 31 million tons annually or 620,000 barrels a day, more than doubling present volumes. Igor Sechin, Rosneft’s boss and Putin’s right-hand man, even hinted at going to 50 million tons per annum. Rosneft’s other deal deal with CNPC to drill in the Pechora and Barents Seas in the Arctic similarly highlights CNPC’s growing clout in global markets. Gazprom also announced its intention to conclude a long-awaited gas deal with China in 2013 by signing a Memorandum of Understanding to that effect. That deal, too, might involve advance payments from China to an increasingly vulnerable Gazprom. Given Russia’s equally strenuous efforts to explore and exploit the Arctic’s hydrocarbon and mineral resources, it is understandably unnerving for it and possibly other governments to see this flood of vigorous Chinese activity, which comes on top of the opening up of the Northern Sea Route to intercontinental trade from Europe to Asia. Certainly, it seems Moscow is concerned, even though it is Beijing’s “strategic partner.” China is clearly after more than simply investment and trade opportunities as it continues to display its obsession with securing energy and other supplies where the U.S. Navy cannot or will not go. Beijing Review claimed that other actors were trying to exclude China, but by dint of enormous exertions and large outlays to finance energy infrastructure in Russia and Canada, as well as its own scientific program of Arctic research, “China has ultimately managed to reshuffle the Arctic balance of power in record time.” More crassly, we might say that China has paid dearly for its newfound status. Still, it will achieve some tangible goals. For instance, in its deal with Iceland, China will not only gain real access to state-of-the-art Icelandic clean energy technologies, it will also acquire leverage and influence in Iceland itself and that influence, once Iceland joins the Council, will redound to China’s benefit. But beyond even these considerable commercial and energy, investment and trade access benefits, China gains strategically in Northern Europe and Russia, if not Canada. It now possesses a venue where it can fully participate in addressing issues of climate change that could, if unchecked, affect China’s climate to extent of eroding its agricultural capacity or rendering it vulnerable to flooding because of its low-lying coast. In addition, as the Northern Sea Route opens up as a cheaper alternative for transcontinental shipping and trade, Russia will almost certainly seek to establish an advantageous tariff regime; China can now make certain that Russia heeds its voice in setting those tariff rates. China will also now have a secure footing from which it can defend what it will claim to be its “legitimate rights” in the Arctic. It is quite conceivable that China will now use that foothold to demand as well a voice in the resolution of Arctic territorial boundaries that are up for decision. In 2009-10 it had claimed that no state had sovereignty in the Arctic, a clear slap at Russian claims. Now, to join the Council, it had to repudiate that earlier position and state that it respected the sovereignty of all the states claiming territory in the Arctic but accept that the decision will be made in the future, a sharp contrast to its rigid insistence on its “core interests” and sovereignty in the Senkakus and the South China Sea. Indeed, given those claims on the seas adjacent to China, it had no choice but to recognize existing exclusive economic zones and boundaries if it wanted to be a member of the Council. Nonetheless, it now calls itself a “near-Arctic state” and an “Arctic stakeholder.” Probably this is what is unnerving for Moscow. According to Interfax, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, with no apparent cause, told an interviewer in Norway on June 4 that “China is trusted. But it is you and us who draw up the rules of the game, that is to say the Arctic states.” Medvedev went on to claim that while Moscow wants productive cooperation with all Council members, including China, and has purely “peaceful and pragmatic goals” there, only Arctic Council members should determine the rules on these questions because, “This is natural, this is our region, we live here. This is our native land.” Unfortunately for Moscow, not only China but also the other new Asian members will seek to maximize their influence in the Council for many of the same reasons. The Arctic may be Russia’s home, but it can no longer be its castle.
2nc – diversification solve Trends are set to continue – renewables are growing
EAN 14
Euro Asia News, 3/27/14, (“China moves towards renewables to diversify energy resources”, http://euroasianews.com/china-moves-towards-renewables-to-diversify-energy-resources/)//AW
China the largest consumer of coal in the world is attempting to diversify its energy sources to move towards renewable energy in particular, wind and nuclear power.
It currently gets 68 percent of its energy supply needs from coal. However in 2013, electricity generation from wind power increased by 35 percent to reach 135 terawatt-hours. Also 110 terawatt-hours electricity was generated by nuclear power plants in 2013, according to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
China, the leading country in wind energy, surpassed four continents in producing electricity from wind power in 2013 generating 91.4 gigawatts (GWs) capacity surpassing that of North America, South America, Australia and Africa continents. The three leading countries, China, U.S and Germany have around 60 percent of the total world wind energy power in 2013.
China’s nuclear power generation should increase over the next few years, according to Energy expert Michael Davidson, from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
“This is part of a concerted effort to introduce renewable and other non-fossil fuel energies into the electricity mix to reduce China’s reliance on coal,” he said adding that “wind benefited from a stable feed-in-tariff”. It appears that there will be an increase in reliance on both wind and nuclear energy in the country over the next few years.
Davidson anticipates that electricity generated through nuclear energy could overtake that generated from wind energy by the end of 2015,” said Davidson, who works on the China Energy and Climate Project in MIT, adding that China is committed to expanding nuclear power as well, however, the nuclear industry grew slower than wind due to its lengthy construction and time-consuming approval processes.
Davidson confirmed that the current nuclear power generation should increase over the next few years as there are 14 nuclear power units in operation in China with 8 plants under construction and in preliminary preparation with approval, according to China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC).
Wind energy has become China’s third-largest energy source, behind coal and hydropower and it aims to get 15 percent of its primary energy from non-fossil sources by 2020.
1nc – russia solves Russia deal solves – supply is set to increase – circumvents insecure routes
[also proves SOI disad turns energy insecurity]
Juan 14
Du Juan, Writer for The China Daily, 5/22/14, (“Gas deal supplies energy diversification”, http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/europe/2014-05/22/content_17532949.htm)//AW
Energy specialists see China's new deal to import natural gas from Russia as a costly but necessary step toward energy diversification.
On Wednesday, President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin oversaw the conclusion of the decade-long negotiations over Russia's gas supply to China.
Under the roughly $400 billion pact, Gazprom will supply China with 38 billion cubic meters of gas annually for 30 years, starting in 2018, through the planned "eastern pipeline", which will connect Russia to China's northeastern Heilongjiang province, and from there connect with the industrialized cities along China's eastern coast.
Sun Yongxiang, a professor at the Euro-Asian Social Development Research Institute of the State Council's Development Research Center, said the strategic partnership between China and Russia has to be based on big-ticket deals.
The signing of the gas deal shows Russia's strong interest in diversifying its energy buyers outside Europe and China's interest in diversifying its energy supply structure, Sun said.
Russia, which exported around 160 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe last year, is under pressure to seek new energy buyers due to its growing friction with the West over Ukraine.
Wang Xiaokun, an analyst at the domestic commodities consultancy Sublime China Information, said the new supply from Russia will increase the share of natural gas in China's energy consumption mix from the current less than 6 percent to 8 percent.
Industry specialists speculate that the price could be about $300 per 1,000 cubic meters, close to Russia's export price to Europe but higher than China's gas imports from Central Asia.
Under the pact, Gazprom will be responsible for upstream exploration, gas processing and pipeline construction inside Russia, and its Chinese partner CNPC will build pipelines inside China and all supporting and storage facilities.
2nc – russia solves Solves diversification – experts
Chengxi 14
Yang Chengxi, Reporter for CCTV, 5/27/14, (“China-Russia gas agreement provides diversification”, http://english.cntv.cn/2014/05/27/VIDE1401182043205126.shtml)//Aw
Has the long-awaited agreement that China signed with Russia last week completed China’s strategy of diversifying its gas imports? Some Chinese experts think that’s the case.
Russian gas giant Gazprom will start supplying China with 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually for 30 years under the deal estimated to be worth 400 billion U.S. dollars. The gas will be transported through a 5,000 kilometer long pipeline project that links China with two gas fields in eastern Siberia. And an estimated 3,000 kilometers of new pipeline will be built in China.
"Last year China’s natural gas consumption reached 167.6 billion cubic meters, and it is growing by 30 billion every year. The gas deal could help support this growth rate," said Professor Liu Yijun from China University of Petrolem.
Natural gas accounts for only four percent of China’s energy consumption. That’s much lower than the international average of 24 percent. China has launched multiple projects to import gas from neighbouring countries in order to reduce its reliance on oil and coal and reduce pollution.
"According to China’s planning, the proportion of natural gas in the country’s energy consumption will be moved up to 15 percent by 2020. Importing gas from Russia will help ensure China diversify its energy portfolio," said Dong Xiucheng, director of China Oil and Gas Center.
China became the third largest natural gas consuming country in 2013 and the government has decided to improve the country’s gas supply capacity to 330 billion cubic meters by 2017.
Solves the internal link to a sufficient threshold
Buchanan 14
Elizabeth Buchanan, PhD candidate at the ANU Centre for European Studies, manager of the Rio Tinto China Economy Program at the Crawford School of Public Policy, 6/19/14, (“Consumers, not strategists, are the winners in China-Russia gas deal”, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2014/06/19/consumers-not-strategists-are-the-winners-in-china-russia-gas-deal/)//AW
China and Russia have signed a 30-year natural gas contract. Come 2018 China will import 38 billion cubic metres of Russian gas per annum. Seemingly, the international community is alarmed and on guard. But is this warranted?
For strategists, the deal ushers in an apparent shift in global power and the end of China as a viable destination for Western energy exports. The deal has certainly placed energy security back on the international political agenda. The reality that global competition for energy is heating up fuels this doomsayer sentiment. International demand is rising for the known traditional energy reserves, which are depleting.
So does the ‘mega deal’ reflect Putin’s sudden pivot to the East? Not necessarily.
Firstly, the deal had been on the table for a decade, and in 2009 the Kremlin officially stated its planned push to the Asian market in the ‘Energy Strategy of Russia to 2030’. Russia has the world’s largest natural gas reserves and China is the world’s biggest gas consumer. Sheer geography pits the two powerhouses as neighbours; the deal is simple economics. Despite the deal pointing to better working Sino-Russian relations, tensions are very much still a hallmark and the bilateral relationship is set to remain coloured by mutual suspicion.
Rather, the deal is a pragmatic application of Russian foreign energy strategy -- a strategy that has remained unchanged and entirely predictable since Putin came to power in 2000. The primary goal of this strategy is to establish Russia as an energy superpower. So energy is wielded as a foreign policy tool.
Nowhere is this more devastatingly effective than in the states of the former Soviet Union. The strategic manipulation of the former Soviet Union's overreliance upon Russian gas is a well-known occurrence. The intricate web of pipelines across the former Soviet Union states wed them to Russian supplies -- those who actively seek an exit from Russia’s orbit are punished by sudden supply cuts or price hikes.
Putin can use this strategy because Europe is set to remain Russia’s most important customer. China’s 38bcm pales in comparison to the 160bcm delivered to Europe annually. More so, the bulk of Russia’s Western European customers are locked in with long-term supply contracts. In some cases, their domestic gas infrastructure is owned and operated by Russian state-owned behemoth Gazprom. There are no short-term alternatives to Russian gas for Europe.
So, ultimately, this deal was all about diversification -- the diversification of Russia’s customer base and the diversification of sources for China’s insatiable energy thirst. Russia effectively has the FSU under its thumb with the sustained selective application of its energy ‘weapon’. It has Western Europe locked into long-term contracts and starved of any viable short-term alternatives. Naturally, it was only a matter of time before Russia cast its eye to the East.
Sure, China may have secured a reduced price given the Kremlin’s current isolation stemming from the events on the Crimean Peninsula. But who was the real winner here?
Simple: the rest of us.
Indeed, ‘end of oil’ pundits and consumers should rejoice in the deal. Russia has the largest gas deposits on earth (most located in the Far East) which have remained unexplored and undeveloped as a direct result of the lack of cash to access, develop and export the reserves. This deal paves the way for this entire region to be explored and turned to production. Not only are new fields set to come online providing more gas to the international market, the deal provides the precedent of international partnerships when it comes to exploration. It also imparts a healthy injection of competition into the international energy market that will ultimately serve to push prices down in the long term.
Perhaps more significantly, this recent deal allows for the delay in Sino–Russian exploration of offshore Arctic energy reserves -- a challenging and environmentally hazardous endeavour, which will require more time to develop the necessary technology.
The China-Russia gas deal is nothing unexpected. It is merely smart business and another step for the two powerhouses towards conquering the challenges of energy security. Those with insecurities must simply grin and bear it.
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