Democracy Promotion/Soft Power—Affirmative Tentative 1AC
Democracy Promotion Good—Middle East
Download 0.51 Mb.
|
- Navigate this page:
- Middle East war goes nuclear
Democracy Promotion Good—Middle EastArab democracy promotion creates stability and US perception is keyO'Connell 12 - Jamie O'Connell is a Senior Fellow of the Honorable G. William and Ariadna Miller Institute for Global Challenges and the Law at the University of California, Berkeley, School of Law, as well as a Lecturer in Residence. He teaches and writes on political and legal development, and has particular expertise in law and development, transitional justice, democratization, post-conflict reconstruction, and business and human rights. (“Common Interests, Closer Allies: How Democracy in Arab States Can Benefit the West,” Stanford Journal of International Law, Lexis Nexis, Summer, 2012) STRYKER The foreign policies of Western countries, and others, reflect policymakers' and citizens' conceptions of their national interests more than their ideals. This Part explains how democratic change in the Arab world would advance important Western interests in that region, based on qualitative and quantitative social science research and policy analysis. Democratization is a very good foreign policy bet for Western countries, even though it is not an "international cure-all" that will solve every problem or advance every interest. n61 Subpart A argues that Arab countries would likely be more internally stable - a central concern of Western foreign policy - if they were governed democratically. Democracy facilitates peaceful negotiation of the competing interests found in any society. The results of empirical studies of the links between democracy and internal stability strongly support the conclusion that democratization will enhance the stability of Arab countries in the long run, and for many of them in the short run as well. Subpart B elaborates on Immanuel Kant's "democratic peace" thesis - that democracies do not fight wars against each other - which has acquired extensive scholarly support in recent years. As Arab countries democratize, the risk of military conflict involving them and other democracies, including in the West, is likely to decline. Subpart C argues that democratization in Arab countries would reduce the threat of terrorism against the West, for reasons set out by the United States' official counterterrorism policy and supported by academic research on terrorism. Subpart D addresses the concern that, given a choice, Arab citizens will choose leaders less friendly to Western countries than current or recently deposed dictators. It argues that Arab countries' interests in relation to the West have not changed, so dramatic shifts in their foreign policies are unlikely in the near future. More importantly, democratization creates an opportunity for Western countries to solidify cooperation with Arab countries, because their fundamental interests dovetail with those of the bulk of the population across the region. Ultimately, Arab citizens who are convinced of Western countries' benign intentions will be more reliable allies than dictators concerned only with their own survival and enrichment. The Subpart also argues that concern for Israel's security should not dilute Western enthusiasm for Arab democratization. These four likely benefits - greater internal stability, less interstate conflict, less transnational terrorism, and stronger and more reliable long-term alliances - together constitute a strong case that democratization in Arab countries will serve Western countries' interests as well as their values. Middle East war goes nuclearStirling 11 (The Earl of Stirling 11, hereditary Governor & Lord Lieutenant of Canada, Lord High Admiral of Nova Scotia, & B.Sc. in Pol. Sc. & History; M.A. in European Studies, “General Middle East War Nears - Syrian events more dangerous than even nuclear nightmare in Japan”, http://europebusines.blogspot.com/2011/03/general-middle-east-war-nears-syrian.html) Any Third Lebanon War/General Middle East War is apt to involve WMD on both side quickly as both sides know the stakes and that the Israelis are determined to end, once and for all, any Iranian opposition to a 'Greater Israel' domination of the entire Middle East. It will be a case of 'use your WMD or lose them' to enemy strikes. Any massive WMD usage against Israel will result in the usage of Israeli thermonuclear warheads against Arab and Persian populations centers in large parts of the Middle East, with the resulting spread of radioactive fallout over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere. However, the first use of nukes is apt to be lower yield warheads directed against Iranian underground facilities including both nuclear sites and governmental command and control and leadership bunkers, with some limited strikes also likely early-on in Syrian territory.¶ The Iranians are well prepared to launch a global Advanced Biological Warfare terrorism based strike against not only Israel and American and allied forces in the Middle East but also against the American, Canadian, British, French, German, Italian, etc., homelands. This will utilize DNA recombination based genetically engineered 'super killer viruses' that are designed to spread themselves throughout the world using humans as vectors. There are very few defenses against such warfare, other than total quarantine of the population until all of the different man-made viruses (and there could be dozens or even over a hundred different viruses released at the same time) have 'burned themselves out'. This could kill a third of the world's total population.¶ Such a result from an Israeli triggered war would almost certainly cause a Russian-Chinese response that would eventually finish off what is left of Israel and begin a truly global war/WWIII with multiple war theaters around the world. It is highly unlikely that a Third World War, fought with 21st Century weaponry will be anything but the Biblical Armageddon. Directory: file -> view view -> Western Europe after wwii view -> Author study: paul fleischman view -> Qpa1 7ela study Guide view -> Arctic Oil/Gas Neg view -> November 1970 Approximately 150,000-500,000 deaths Bhola Cyclone Bangladesh view -> Grade Level: 6 Unit of Study: Caribbean glce view -> Citation: Duffield, Katy view -> Table of Contents Lesson # view -> Chinese Wind Energy Disad Download 0.51 Mb. Share with your friends:
|