2.13 Population Option
The TRENDS model presents four options for population projections from 2010 to 2030. The first option suggests that migration rates will be one-half those experienced from 1990 to 2000 in Texas. This is the most conservative option, or the “low” scenario. The next option suggests that migration rates will be equal to those experienced from 2000 to 2004. This choice is the default option, or the “medium” scenario. The next option suggests that migration rates will be equal to those experienced from 2000 to 2007. This is the “medium-high” growth scenario. The last choice suggests that population growth will be equal to what was experienced in Texas from 1990 to 2000. This forecast is the “high” population scenario. Click on the corresponding radio button that you wish to use. A detailed list of population projections used in this model is provided below. You may also consult the appendix chapter of this User’s Guide for a detailed explanation on how these population projections were generated.
Population Growth Assumptions for Texas
|
Year
|
"Low" Scenario
|
"Medium" Scenario
|
"Med-High" Scenario
|
"High" Scenario
|
2000
|
20,851,820
|
20,851,820
|
20,851,820
|
20,851,820
|
2001
|
21,183,522
|
21,229,706
|
21,250,706
|
21,306,644
|
2002
|
21,519,983
|
21,619,331
|
21,662,156
|
21,776,330
|
2003
|
21,860,876
|
22,020,139
|
22,086,390
|
22,260,876
|
2004
|
22,206,348
|
22,432,435
|
22,523,650
|
22,761,149
|
2005
|
22,556,046
|
22,856,008
|
22,973,810
|
23,276,607
|
2006
|
22,907,223
|
23,287,920
|
23,433,853
|
23,805,208
|
2007
|
23,259,904
|
23,728,511
|
23,903,779
|
24,347,002
|
2008
|
23,614,497
|
24,178,199
|
24,383,647
|
24,902,640
|
2009
|
23,971,472
|
24,637,293
|
24,873,773
|
25,473,249
|
2010
|
24,330,646
|
25,105,642
|
25,373,947
|
26,058,595
|
2011
|
24,692,181
|
25,583,279
|
25,883,999
|
26,659,069
|
2012
|
25,056,041
|
26,070,062
|
26,403,743
|
27,275,174
|
2013
|
25,421,596
|
26,565,652
|
26,932,619
|
27,906,493
|
2014
|
25,788,871
|
27,069,509
|
27,470,110
|
28,553,044
|
2015
|
26,156,723
|
27,581,160
|
28,015,550
|
29,213,840
|
2016
|
26,525,342
|
28,100,268
|
28,568,732
|
29,889,182
|
2017
|
26,894,510
|
28,626,864
|
29,129,530
|
30,578,869
|
2018
|
27,264,173
|
29,160,936
|
29,697,950
|
31,283,094
|
2019
|
27,634,725
|
29,702,821
|
30,274,269
|
32,002,430
|
2020
|
28,005,740
|
30,252,566
|
30,858,449
|
32,736,716
|
2021
|
28,379,265
|
30,812,404
|
31,452,815
|
33,488,495
|
2022
|
28,755,407
|
31,382,805
|
32,057,766
|
34,258,659
|
2023
|
29,133,905
|
31,963,803
|
32,673,327
|
35,047,389
|
2024
|
29,514,719
|
32,555,500
|
33,299,749
|
35,855,312
|
2025
|
29,897,410
|
33,158,037
|
33,936,986
|
36,682,200
|
2026
|
30,281,758
|
33,771,210
|
34,584,918
|
37,528,671
|
2027
|
30,667,584
|
34,395,216
|
35,243,768
|
38,395,244
|
2028
|
31,054,394
|
35,029,975
|
35,913,396
|
39,281,907
|
2029
|
31,442,197
|
35,675,788
|
36,593,880
|
40,189,388
|
2030
|
31,830,575
|
36,332,892
|
37,285,486
|
41,117,631
|
2.14 Local Options
At present, local options for funding the transportation network are limited to revenue bonds (and tolls), general obligation bonds, a portion of vehicle registration fees, plus local sales and property taxes. This section of the model allows the user to assess the impact of local fuel taxes, a local VMT fee and local vehicle registration fees if such enabling legislation allowing their use were to be adopted by the Texas Legislature. For the purpose of assessing hypothetical scenarios, the level of analysis built into the model is the Metropolitan Planning Organization.
2.14-1 Local Revenue Options
The first question in this section asks, “Do you want to do a local option revenue analysis? (Yes or No.)” The default answer is “No.” By clicking “Yes,” a new set of options appear. This section allows you to select local revenue projections for Metropolitain Planning Organizations in Texas. This will allow you to view a statement of revenue for a specific MPO that you select as well as compare multiple MPO’s in one statement. Click all the MPO’s that you would like to include in the data output here. (see below)
2.14-2 Local Fuel Tax
The next set of questions relates to local fuel taxes. First, the TRENDS Model asks if you would like to change the local fuel tax rate. The default answer is “No”.
By selecting “Yes,” a new set of options appear. The TRENDS model then asks, “How much would you increase the local gasoline tax?” The model requires you to enter the amount of cents per gallon you wish to increase the local gasoline tax. (For decimal values less than 1, enter a preceding 0 first). The model then asks, “In which year would you like the increase to become effective?” Enter the year in which you would like the tax increase to take effect. Follow the same process for the local diesel tax section. (see below)
2.14-3 Local VMT Tax
The next set of questions relates to local vehicle miles traveled (VMT) tax. The TRENDS Model first asks if you would like to change the local VMT tax. The default answer is “No”.
By selecting “Yes,” a new set of options appear. The TRENDS model then asks, “How much would you like to change the local personal VMT?” The model requires you to enter the amount of cents per gallon you wish to increase the local personal VMT tax. Next, the model asks, “How much do you want to change the local commercial VMT?” (For decimal values less than 1, enter a preceding 0 first). The model then asks, “In which year would you like the increase to become effective?” Enter the year in which you would like the tax increase to take effect. (see below)
2.14-4 Local Vehicle Registration Fee
The next set of questions relates to local vehicle registration fees. The TRENDS Model first asks if you would like to change the local vehicle registration Fee. The default answer is “No”. (see below)
By selecting “Yes,” a new set of options appear. The TRENDS model then asks, “How much would you like to change the local vehicle passenger fee for vehicles less than 6000 lbs.?” (For decimal values less than 1, enter a preceding 0 first). Next, the model asks, “How much do you want to change the local passenger vehicle fee for vehicles greater than 6000 lbs.?” Follow the same process for the local truck fee and local motorcycle fee questions that follow. The model then asks, “In which year would you like the increase to become effective?” Enter the year in which you would like the fee increases to take effect. (see below)
2.14-5 Local Fuel Efficiency
The next set of questions relates to local fuel efficiency. This might be useful if you feel that your locality has a higher or lower number of fuel efficient vehicles relative to other areas in Texas. The TRENDS Model first asks if you would like to change the local Vehicle Registration Fee. The default answer is “No”. (see below)
By selecting “Yes,” a new set of options appear. The TRENDS model then asks you to select the fuel efficiency for local commercial vehicles. You are provided three options: low fuel efficiency, average fuel efficiency, and high fuel efficiency. (You may consult the fuel efficiency discussion at the end of the User’s Guide for a detailed description on fuel efficiency projections). Follow the same process for selecting the fuel efficiency assumption for local personal vehicles. (see below)
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