Developed by the Texas Transportation Institute and the Texas Department of Transportation



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2.13 Population Option
The TRENDS model presents four options for population projections from 2010 to 2030. The first option suggests that migration rates will be one-half those experienced from 1990 to 2000 in Texas. This is the most conservative option, or the “low” scenario. The next option suggests that migration rates will be equal to those experienced from 2000 to 2004. This choice is the default option, or the “medium” scenario. The next option suggests that migration rates will be equal to those experienced from 2000 to 2007. This is the “medium-high” growth scenario. The last choice suggests that population growth will be equal to what was experienced in Texas from 1990 to 2000. This forecast is the “high” population scenario. Click on the corresponding radio button that you wish to use. A detailed list of population projections used in this model is provided below. You may also consult the appendix chapter of this User’s Guide for a detailed explanation on how these population projections were generated.


Population Growth Assumptions for Texas

Year

"Low" Scenario

"Medium" Scenario

"Med-High" Scenario

"High" Scenario

2000

20,851,820

20,851,820

20,851,820

20,851,820

2001

21,183,522

21,229,706

21,250,706

21,306,644

2002

21,519,983

21,619,331

21,662,156

21,776,330

2003

21,860,876

22,020,139

22,086,390

22,260,876

2004

22,206,348

22,432,435

22,523,650

22,761,149

2005

22,556,046

22,856,008

22,973,810

23,276,607

2006

22,907,223

23,287,920

23,433,853

23,805,208

2007

23,259,904

23,728,511

23,903,779

24,347,002

2008

23,614,497

24,178,199

24,383,647

24,902,640

2009

23,971,472

24,637,293

24,873,773

25,473,249

2010

24,330,646

25,105,642

25,373,947

26,058,595

2011

24,692,181

25,583,279

25,883,999

26,659,069

2012

25,056,041

26,070,062

26,403,743

27,275,174

2013

25,421,596

26,565,652

26,932,619

27,906,493

2014

25,788,871

27,069,509

27,470,110

28,553,044

2015

26,156,723

27,581,160

28,015,550

29,213,840

2016

26,525,342

28,100,268

28,568,732

29,889,182

2017

26,894,510

28,626,864

29,129,530

30,578,869

2018

27,264,173

29,160,936

29,697,950

31,283,094

2019

27,634,725

29,702,821

30,274,269

32,002,430

2020

28,005,740

30,252,566

30,858,449

32,736,716

2021

28,379,265

30,812,404

31,452,815

33,488,495

2022

28,755,407

31,382,805

32,057,766

34,258,659

2023

29,133,905

31,963,803

32,673,327

35,047,389

2024

29,514,719

32,555,500

33,299,749

35,855,312

2025

29,897,410

33,158,037

33,936,986

36,682,200

2026

30,281,758

33,771,210

34,584,918

37,528,671

2027

30,667,584

34,395,216

35,243,768

38,395,244

2028

31,054,394

35,029,975

35,913,396

39,281,907

2029

31,442,197

35,675,788

36,593,880

40,189,388

2030

31,830,575

36,332,892

37,285,486

41,117,631


2.14 Local Options
At present, local options for funding the transportation network are limited to revenue bonds (and tolls), general obligation bonds, a portion of vehicle registration fees, plus local sales and property taxes. This section of the model allows the user to assess the impact of local fuel taxes, a local VMT fee and local vehicle registration fees if such enabling legislation allowing their use were to be adopted by the Texas Legislature. For the purpose of assessing hypothetical scenarios, the level of analysis built into the model is the Metropolitan Planning Organization.

2.14-1 Local Revenue Options
The first question in this section asks, “Do you want to do a local option revenue analysis? (Yes or No.)” The default answer is “No.” By clicking “Yes,” a new set of options appear. This section allows you to select local revenue projections for Metropolitain Planning Organizations in Texas. This will allow you to view a statement of revenue for a specific MPO that you select as well as compare multiple MPO’s in one statement. Click all the MPO’s that you would like to include in the data output here. (see below)


2.14-2 Local Fuel Tax
The next set of questions relates to local fuel taxes. First, the TRENDS Model asks if you would like to change the local fuel tax rate. The default answer is “No”.

By selecting “Yes,” a new set of options appear. The TRENDS model then asks, “How much would you increase the local gasoline tax?” The model requires you to enter the amount of cents per gallon you wish to increase the local gasoline tax. (For decimal values less than 1, enter a preceding 0 first). The model then asks, “In which year would you like the increase to become effective?” Enter the year in which you would like the tax increase to take effect. Follow the same process for the local diesel tax section. (see below)





2.14-3 Local VMT Tax
The next set of questions relates to local vehicle miles traveled (VMT) tax. The TRENDS Model first asks if you would like to change the local VMT tax. The default answer is “No”.
By selecting “Yes,” a new set of options appear. The TRENDS model then asks, “How much would you like to change the local personal VMT?” The model requires you to enter the amount of cents per gallon you wish to increase the local personal VMT tax. Next, the model asks, “How much do you want to change the local commercial VMT?” (For decimal values less than 1, enter a preceding 0 first). The model then asks, “In which year would you like the increase to become effective?” Enter the year in which you would like the tax increase to take effect. (see below)



2.14-4 Local Vehicle Registration Fee
The next set of questions relates to local vehicle registration fees. The TRENDS Model first asks if you would like to change the local vehicle registration Fee. The default answer is “No”. (see below)
By selecting “Yes,” a new set of options appear. The TRENDS model then asks, “How much would you like to change the local vehicle passenger fee for vehicles less than 6000 lbs.?” (For decimal values less than 1, enter a preceding 0 first). Next, the model asks, “How much do you want to change the local passenger vehicle fee for vehicles greater than 6000 lbs.?” Follow the same process for the local truck fee and local motorcycle fee questions that follow. The model then asks, “In which year would you like the increase to become effective?” Enter the year in which you would like the fee increases to take effect. (see below)

2.14-5 Local Fuel Efficiency
The next set of questions relates to local fuel efficiency. This might be useful if you feel that your locality has a higher or lower number of fuel efficient vehicles relative to other areas in Texas. The TRENDS Model first asks if you would like to change the local Vehicle Registration Fee. The default answer is “No”. (see below)
By selecting “Yes,” a new set of options appear. The TRENDS model then asks you to select the fuel efficiency for local commercial vehicles. You are provided three options: low fuel efficiency, average fuel efficiency, and high fuel efficiency. (You may consult the fuel efficiency discussion at the end of the User’s Guide for a detailed description on fuel efficiency projections). Follow the same process for selecting the fuel efficiency assumption for local personal vehicles. (see below)




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