Document name wecc scenarios
Scenario Four - Policy Themes
Download 483.4 Kb.
|
- Navigate this page:
- Scenario 4: Focus on Long-Term Societal Costs
- Using the Scenarios for Long Term Thinking and Early Indicators
- Long-Term Use of the Scenarios
- Chart 4: Long-Term Movement
- From NW to NE
Scenario Four - Policy ThemesThe chart below indicates how policy areas might influence the context in which energy related decisions are to be made within scenario four. The indicators on the charts will also be used to indicate changes from the common case assumptions, which will be the basis for WECC quantitative modeling. The common case assumptions should be thought of as a world, which naturally extrapolates from current conditions with no extraordinary changes. Key: ‘++’ = Most aggressive; ‘+’=aggressive; ‘-’= less aggressive; ‘– –’ = least aggressive; ‘0’ = neutral Scenario 4: Focus on Long-Term Societal Costs
Using the Scenarios for Long Term Thinking and Early IndicatorsThe draft scenarios are written as if the entire twenty-year period unfolds in one quadrant. Remaining in one quadrant was a necessary step for creating distinctly different worlds and as a way to provide clear alternatives to drive the transmission planning results. Since scenarios are tools for thinking and learning they can also be combined in imaginative ways. Long-Term Use of the ScenariosThe WECC scenarios can be seen as “archetypes” or states of play for periods of time (generally shorter than 20 years). It is in this light that one can imagine pathways through the archetypal spaces over longer periods. Here are some suggestions from the pathways shown in Chart 4 below. We use directional designations for the four scenario quadrants: (1) Scenario One is the Northwest (NW) Quadrant; (2) Scenario Two is the Northeast (NE) Quadrant; (3) Scenario Three is the Southwest (SW) Quadrant; and (4) Scenario Four is the Southeast (SE) Quadrant. Chart 4: Long-Term Movement
From SW to NWHere we can imagine the U.S. and the WECC region emerging from the 2008-2010 recession and steadily returning to stable economic growth. If technology in the power industry evolves steadily (with no big breakthroughs), then it is possible for the WECC region to stay in this world for five to ten years. Supported by global economic growth, good demographics and effective economic policies, this world could even extend out for the majority of the 20 years. For transmission investment, this path would call for new transmission to tie in the new generation being built to meet growing demand. From NW to NEMovement here would be caused by a ramp up in technological innovation in the power sector combined with investments across the industry to implement a new paradigm. These investments would contribute to sustaining economic growth. This could be a 10-year boom (like the 1990s) with have a soft landing that essentially characterizes a long period of time. For transmission investment, this path may indicate that interstate transmission may already be sufficient and that most of the action could be in the distribution system and in limited in-state transmission. The transmission added during the period in Scenario One might prove sufficient. Directory: Reliability Reliability -> The Private and Social Value of Blackout Risk Reduction Reliability -> Study Request: Opportunity/Variable Cost Dispatch for Solar, Wind, Geothermal and Nuclear Requestor Reliability -> 2017 Annual Progress Report to wecc pacific Gas and Electric Company Waiver of “Significant Transmission Project” Status Download 483.4 Kb. Share with your friends:
|