Document name wecc scenarios

Download 483.4 Kb.

Page	30/30
Date	01.02.2017
Size	483.4 Kb.
	#14851

1 ... 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Scenario 4
Appendix II: Comparative Scenario Summary
Appendix IV: Annotated Policy Theme Table

Scenario 3:

P. 53	Why a Global Economic Rebound MAY be short-lived
P. 53	Coal Plants Disproportionate Impacts on Minorities and the Poor
P. 54	North Dakota Electrical Demand to Triple in Oil Patch
P. 54	Bipartisan Group Proposes a Centralized Energy Policy Council
P. 55	A Powerful Thirst: Energy, Water and Drought
P. 55	US Energy Independence Within View - Implications and Consequences
P. 57	IMF Slashes Growth Forecast, Economy Fragile thru 2018
P. 57	Tech’s New Wave, Driven by Data
P. 57	Declassified Report: Terrorist Attack on Power Grid Could Cause Broad Hardship
P. 57	Risk Aware Planning for the Electric Utility Sector
P. 57	DG - Environment Concerns Driving Co-Generation Equipment Market
P. 58	A 20-Year Low in U.S. Carbon Emissions
P. 58	Natural Gas Sets Record by Matching Coal's Electric Power Output
P. 53	A 20-Year Low in U.S. Carbon Emissions
P. 54	Natural Gas Sets Record by Matching Coal's Electric Power Output

Scenario 4:

P. 66	IMF Slashes Growth Forecast, Economy Fragile thru 2018
P. 66	Fearing an Impasse in Congress, Industry Cuts Spending
P. 67	Electricity Innovation Lab Launched to Drive Transformation of the U.S. Electricity Sector
p. 67	LEDs Emerge as a Popular ‘Green’ Lighting
P. 68	Coal Plants Disproportionate Impacts on Minorities and the Poor
P. 68	Yale Survey Shows Increasing Awareness of Climate Change and Extreme Weather
P. 71	Senate Gives Green Light to Pentagon Green Energy
P. 71	California Company to Bring Solar to Military Housing
P. 72	Storage, Auto DR and Grid Flexibility Critical in Wind and Solar Penetration
P. 72	Bringing Big Data to Smart Meters

Appendix II: Comparative Scenario Summary

See attached spreadsheet

Appendix III: Policy Theme Table

This appendix contains a comparative analysis chart, which shows in one place how the policy areas might influence the policy arena in which energy related decision might be make within the context of the scenarios. These charts are useful in that they allow readers to see and compare the significant differences between the scenarios in one place.

Key; ‘++’ = Most aggressive; ‘+’=aggressive; ‘-’= less aggressive; ‘– –’ = least aggressive; ‘0’ = neutral

Policy Categories	Scenario 1: Focus on Economic Growth	Scenario 2: Focus on Clean Energy	Scenario 3: Focus on Short-Term Consumer Costs	Scenario 4: Focus on Long-Term Societal Costs	Notes
Policy Theme	High need driven by economic growth.	Deep, binding GHG reduction targets in response to int’l treaty.	Slow growth leads to hard choices about policy goals.	“Low-hanging fruit” investment in clean, domestic resources.	+ means:
Greenhouse Gas Policies	0	++	–	+	more aggressive reduction targets
Economic Policies	+	+	0	0	pro-growth policies
Capital Investment Support	+	+	0	0	more investment support
Renewable Energy Policies	0	+	–	+	more favorable to renewables
Transmission and Standards	0	+	0	+	more favorable to investment and coordinated operations
Federal R&D/ Technology Support	0	+	–	+	more support
Transportation Policies	0	++	–	+	more support for alt. fuel vehicles and transport choices
Demand-side Policies	0	++	0	++	more support for demand-side investments
Energy Security/ Independence Policies	0	0	0	++	more support for domestic resources
Environmental/ Cultural Policies	0	0	–	+	more protection of environmental/ cultural resources
Consumer Issues	0	–	+	0	more restrictions on cost recovery
Fuel	0	– –	+	++	more support for enhanced production

Appendix IV: Annotated Policy Theme Table

Key; ‘++’ = Most aggressive; ‘+’=aggressive; ‘-’= less aggressive; ‘– –’ = least aggressive; ‘0’ = neutral

Policy Categories	Scenario 1: Focus on Economic Growth	Scenario 2: Focus on Clean Energy	Scenario 3: Focus on Short-Term Consumer Costs	Scenario 4: Focus on Long-Term Societal Costs
Policy theme	High need driven by economic growth.	Deep, binding GHG reduction targets in response to international treaty.	Slow growth leads to hard choices about policy goals.	“Low-hanging fruit” investment in clean, domestic resources.
Greenhouse gas policies	0 No new GHG policies, but continued use of GHG adders in resource planning	++ Strong new GHG policies with aggressive reduction targets	– No new GHG policies and reduced concern about GHGs in resource planning relative to today	+ GHG reduction targets, but less aggressive and with more “outs” than in Scenario 2
Economic policies	+ “Pro-growth” policies may lead to higher economic growth and electric loads	+ “Pro-growth” policies may lead to higher economic growth and electric loads	0 Neutral policies with respect to growth	0 Neutral policies with respect to growth
Capital investment support	+ “Pro-investment” policies may lead to reduced cost and risk in capital-intensive investments	+ “Pro-investment” policies may lead to reduced cost and risk in capital-intensive investments	0 Neutral policies with respect to investment support	0 Neutral policies with respect to investment support
Renewable energy policies	0 No new RPS mandates or incentives, but no retrenchment from existing policies	+ Strong policies to support renewables as carbon-free resources	– Existing incentives allowed to expire and current RPS targets are relaxed or delayed due to concerns about cost	+ Strong policies to support renewables as clean, secure, domestic resources
Transmission and standards	0 No major initiatives to increase transmission investment or coordinated operations	+ New initiatives to increase transmission investment and enhance coordinated operations and planning as part of GHG reduction plan	0 No major initiatives to increase transmission investment or coordinated operations	+ New initiatives to increase transmission investment and enhance coordinated operations and planning to increase use of domestic resources
Federal R&D/ technology support	0 No major federal R&D initiatives	+ Major new federal initiatives to jump-start technologies needed to transition away from fossil energy	– Reduced budgets for R&D due to lower tax revenues and federal spending cuts	+ Major new federal initiatives to increase our ability to cost-effectively utilize clean, domestic resources
Transportation policies	0 No major initiatives to increase use of alternative fuels	++ Strong policies to increase use of electric vehicles as GHG reduction strategy	– Reduction of existing efforts to increase use of alternative fuels	+ Moderate new policies to increase use of electric and natural gas vehicles
Demand-side policies	0 No major initiatives to increase energy efficiency and demand response	++ Strong policies to increase use of energy efficiency as GHG reduction strategy	0 No major initiatives to increase energy efficiency and demand response	++ Strong policies to increase use of energy efficiency as cost-effective, secure domestic resource
Energy Security/ Independence policies	0 No major initiatives to increase use of domestic energy resources	0 No major initiatives to increase use of domestic energy resources	0 No major initiatives to increase use of domestic energy resources	++ Major new initiatives to increase use of domestic energy resources to reduce dependence on imported oil
Environmental/ Cultural policies	0 No major initiatives to increase or decrease land/cultural protections, criteria pollutant emissions or water consumption	0 All-out effort to reduce GHG emissions may require some compromise with respect to land use and water consumption policies	– Existing emissions reduction and land & cultural- protection initiatives are delayed or weakened due to concerns about cost	+ Increased focus on land-use, cultural protections & water use and emissions reductions as self-interested investments in clean, domestic resources
Consumer issues	0 No major initiatives to increase consumer protections in electric utility sector	– Focus on GHG reductions may require increased incentives such as equity adders or early recovery to encourage capital-intensive investments	+ Rollback of existing incentives for transmission investments and increased scrutiny of new investments by state commissions in order to keep rates low	0 No major initiatives to increase consumer protections in electric utility sector
Fuel	0 No major initiatives to increase or decrease ability to extract fuels from domestic lands or waters	– – Significant efforts to reduce drilling in order to reduce GHG emissions	+ New initiatives to increase drilling in an effort to keep fuel prices down	++ Major new initiatives to increase drilling, particularly for gas, in order to reduce dependence on imported oil

Key; ‘++’ = Most aggressive; ‘+’=aggressive; ‘-’= less aggressive; ‘– –’ = least aggressive; ‘0’ = neutral

1 It should be noted that EPS submissions have been integrated into this version of WECC scenarios. In each scenario, there are a few underlined blue hyperlinks which link to the relevant EPS submission on the SPSG website. Double-clicking on the EPS link will take you there.

2 The process of using a fluid to create cracks in sedimentary rock and a proppant (small solid) to hold open the crack, releasing trapped oil and gas.

3 The Global Smart Grid Federation

4 The U.S. Department of Energy

5 The above listing of sources of power supply options can change over time and with varying degrees depending on conditions in the scenario. Conditions in the scenario related to changes in economic growth, fuel prices, technological change, industry regulations (state, provincial, and federal) and public policies will affect the amount of power supplied from the power sources. For this scenario a sense of the direction of change can be indicated as follows:

+ increasing, ++ significant increases, - decreasing, --significant decreases, and ~ no significant change from historical levels.

6 Brazil, Russia, India and China

7 The above listing of sources of power supply options can change over time and with varying degrees depending on conditions in the scenario. Conditions in the scenario related to changes in economic growth, fuel prices, technological change, industry regulations (state, provincial, and federal) and public policies will affect the amount of power supplied from the power sources. For this scenario a sense of the direction of change can be indicated as follows:

+ increasing, ++ significant increases, - decreasing, --significant decreases, and ~ no significant change from historical levels.

Directory: Reliability
Reliability -> The Private and Social Value of Blackout Risk Reduction
Reliability -> Study Request: Opportunity/Variable Cost Dispatch for Solar, Wind, Geothermal and Nuclear Requestor
Reliability -> 2017 Annual Progress Report to wecc pacific Gas and Electric Company Waiver of “Significant Transmission Project” Status

Download 483.4 Kb.

Share with your friends:

1 ... 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30