Document name wecc scenarios
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- From SW to SE
- From SE to NE
- Early Indicators for Long-Term Transmission Planning
- Early Indicators for Scenario 1: Focus on Economic Growth
- Early Indicators for Scenario 2: Focus on Clean Energy
From NE back to NWThe movement back to the NW after a period in the NE could be plausible as the direct result of a period of implementing a new energy infrastructure that then becomes the norm. Technological innovation returns to a stable pattern following the changes put in place for a decade or less. The NW to NE and back to NW could happen over two decades. In this pathway, the transmission and distribution built during the earlier period may be sufficient for a long time. If distributed resources, energy efficiency and smart grid technologies are used to manage and meet demand and reliability, transmission assets may not be needed for a long time. From SW to SEThis pattern might be plausible if economic growth proved difficult to generate. The long-term overhang of the global debt bubble, a lack political cooperation with regards to economic policies as well as other factors could lead to this being the norm for another decade. For transmission investments, this path may demand more from distribution systems than from transmission systems. If distributed generation, energy efficiency, and smart grid systems characterize the nature of the innovation, the amount of investment in transmission may be driven by the normal cycles of maintenance and the sustaining the core facilities. From SE to NEFollowing on the above, it’s plausible that after a decade in the SE quadrant, technological innovation along with improved economic and political policies reinvigorate economic growth. It is plausible to imagine a steady climb up to the NE over a decade as confidence and experience builds momentum. This results in a long-term pathway to a re-modernized energy infrastructure. If this emerges, a wave of new investment for transmission may be required just to keep up with the return of economic growth and the rise of both new infrastructure and technological capabilities. This path suggests that over time, as the economy recovers, the world might shift to conditions similar to those described in Scenario Two, and that an improved economic climate leads to investment in R&D and eventually to technological breakthroughs. Early Indicators for Long-Term Transmission PlanningThe descriptions of movement above have within them indicators that conditions are changing. A primary benefit of scenario-based planning is the generation of early indicators of change so that decisions might be better managed to reduce risks and also take advantage of emerging opportunities. Short-to-medium term risks in transmission planning are generally related to meeting both reliability and congestion management requirements. Over longer periods of time, concepts like resilience, adaptability and flexibility are important for long-term capital investments in transmission systems. Resilience and adaptability in transmission planning might be helpful for dealing with unexpected operating conditions, i.e., weather conditions or emergencies, or with rare unanticipated changes in energy supply or demand, i.e., a long-term plant outage affecting supply or changes in economic conditions impacting demand. The WECC Reference Case will be the starting point for information and analysis provided by WECC to its members in order to guide transmission expansion plans. Early indicators emerging from these scenarios could assist WECC members involved in the planning for, investing in, or managing of transmission assets. These indicators could help to improve real-time decisions if events diverge from conditions in the Reference Case. From an overarching standpoint, the key indicators will oftentimes pinpoint the emergence of conditions similar to a specific scenario. They can be related to the major axis drivers of economic growth and the pattern of technological advances in the electric power industry. In addition, indicators can be valuable tools for perceiving changes at a more targeted level. Depending on the point of view of an observer, there can be a limitless number of early indicators, so there can never a complete list. Early indicators can fit within the list of key drivers are the foundation of the scenarios or could or extend beyond them. Listed below by each scenario are some more targeted early indicators proposed by SPSG members Readers are welcome to add more from their specific perspective. Most importantly, early indicators should be connected to potential decisions and used for further learning and inquiry. Early Indicators for Scenario 1: Focus on Economic Growth
Early Indicators for Scenario 2: Focus on Clean Energy
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