Early Indicators for Scenario 3: Focus on Short-Term Consumer Costs

Early Indicators for Scenario 4: Focus on Long-Term Societal Costs

1. 
   A powerful climate-related event that provides the public with the strongest possible evidence of the need to quickly address the issue regardless of short-term costs.
   
2. 
   The U.S. takes a strong energy security stance with a preference for domestic resources and fuel price stability.
   
3. 
   Renewable energy resources quickly advance competitively and can prosper with lower levels of tax and policy preferences (perhaps supported by effective storage technology).
   
4. 
   U.S.-based and international insurers impose costs on high GHG-emitting technologies to cover the financial impacts of climate change.
   
5. 
   Persistent volatility in natural gas prices magnifies the risks to the economy.
   
6. 
   A substantial and long-term jump in oil prices driven by global demand (above $150 per barrel for the foreseeable future).
   
7. 
   A workable and effective cap and trade process is implemented and achieves early success in the U.S.
   
8. 
   A more distributed power system, which is anchored in solar energy, load control and energy efficiency, expands rapidly due to its cost competitiveness.
   

Appendix I: Scenario Narrative EPS

In each scenario there are underlined blue hyperlinks directing the reader to relevant EPS submissions on the SPSG website. Below are all the EPS links listed by scenario with the page numbers from the scenario narrative section.

Scenario 1:

P. 13	Technology as a Growth Engine
P. 13	Will There be a Silver Bullet for the U.S. Economy?
P. 15	Risk Aware Planning for the Electric Utility Sector
P. 16	Oil Boom Counterpoint: Shale Oil Everywhere…For a While
P. 16	U.S. to Be World’s Top Oil Producer in 5 Years, IEA Report Says
P. 16	GLOBAL ECONOMY-U.S. looks best of 2013 economic runners
P. 16	MIT Study on the Future of the Electric Grid
P. 17	Big data on the Smart Grid
P. 17	Weather Extremes Changing Patterns of Energy Use and Infrastructure
P. 18	U.S. to add 93 Million to Population by 2050
P. 18	U.S. to Be World’s Top Oil Producer in 5 Years, IEA Report Says
P. 18	SecDef Panetta Warns of Dire Threat of Cyberattack on U.S.
P. 19	New DOE Innovation Hub Aims to Cut Battery Costs by 80 Percent

Scenario 2:

P. 33	CERES Publishes "Practicing Risk Aware Electric Regulation
P. 33	Global Economy: Fork in the Road as U.S. Outstrips Europe
P. 33	Bringing Big Data to Smart Meters
P. 33	New DOE Innovation Hub Aims to Cut Battery Costs by 80 Percent
p. 33	Big Boost in Utility Capital Spending Must Pivot to Reflect New Realities
p. 35	US Housing Rebound Story Intact
p. 37	Bringing Big Data to Smart Meters
P. 39	New DOE Innovation Hub Aims to Cut Battery Costs by 80 Percent
P. 39	Prudent Development of Natural Gas and Oil
P. 39	GE's New Natural-Gas Turbines Could Help Renewables
P. 42	The Technology Path to Deep Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cuts by 2050: The Pivotal Role of Electricity
P. 43	Risk Aware Planning for the Electric Utility Sector
P. 43	Declassified Report: Terrorist Attack on Power Grid Could Cause Broad Hardship
P. 43	House Committee Members Release a New Report on Climate Change

Directory: Reliability
Reliability -> The Private and Social Value of Blackout Risk Reduction
Reliability -> Study Request: Opportunity/Variable Cost Dispatch for Solar, Wind, Geothermal and Nuclear Requestor
Reliability -> 2017 Annual Progress Report to wecc pacific Gas and Electric Company Waiver of “Significant Transmission Project” Status

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