Dr. Constantinos Filis Dimopoulos Dimosthenis, Karagiannopoulos Petros-Damianos

The Chronicle of the Crisis

On November 21^st Ukrainian Prime Minister Nicola Azarov on a published decree ordered for the “halt of the process of preparing the association agreement between Ukraine and the European Union", a decision which was encouraged by the harsh conditions posed by the IMF for its financial aid package to Ukraine. [20]

Following the governmental decree, protests erupted in the Ukrainian capital the very same night. The demonstrations were peaceful and in support of a pro-western Ukraine and were calling the government to sign the treaty and strengthen Ukraine’s relations with the EU.

After the Vilnius Summit on November 29, where Ukraine opted to not sign the Association Agreement, the demonstration wave grew and more people went to the streets all over Ukraine, mainly in Kiev and Lviv, to express their anger and frustration towards their government. [21] The next day the police dispersed the protestors violently, which provoked outrage in several other regions of the country. [22]

The situation continued to deteriorate despite the efforts made by President Yanukovych to deescalate the situation by proposing an extensive cabinet reshuffling in order to include key opposition leaders. The rallies kept increasing in duration and volume demanding the resignation of President Yanukovych and early elections.

On February 21^st an evanescent peace deal was reached between President Yanukovych and the opposition leaders, following a week of bloodshed and violence, however the same day, as the President left Kiev for a trip to the Eastern Ukraine regions, demonstrators overran governmental buildings in Kiev and the next day the parliament voted to remove from office President Yanukovych and release Yulia Tymoshenko from prison. [24]

After the impeachment of President Yanukovych, an action which he called illegal and a coup d’état, who fled the country, the Parliament appointed an interim government and announced that the country will hold Presidential elections on May 25. Meanwhile, regional authorities in eastern provinces stated their concerns and disapproval of the new developments. Regional authorities in Crimea threatened to secede from Ukraine. [25]

On February 27 heavily armed pro-Russian militias seized Crimea’s Regional Government and Parliament buildings, hours later Crimean Parliament voted in favor of holding a referendum on the region’s status on May 25, the same day of the Ukrainian Presidential elections. The next day similar militias started capturing infrastructure and key buildings, including airports in Sevastopol and Simferopol. Kiev and Western Governments claimed that the gunmen were Russian soldiers and secret agents in disguise; however Russia adamantly denied the allegations. [26]

By Wednesday 5^th of March, pro-Russian forces had complete control of the Crimean peninsula and any military bases of the Ukrainian Army that were not overran, were blockaded. Later on, Crimea’s regional government announced it would hold a referendum on whether it should officially join Russia on 16 March. Crimea’s Deputy Prime-Minister said the referendum was being held purely to ratify the decision of the Crimean parliament to join the Russian Federation, and the parliament had appealed to Russia for assistance. [27]

The USA and the EU imposed targeted sanctions against Russian officials and individuals responsible for the Crimean occupation, the Russian Government responded in kind as well. [27]

On March 11, Parliamentarians in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the Ukrainian city of Sevastopol adopted declarations on the territories' independence. [28]

On March 16, the Crimean Referendum took place and resulted in an overwhelming vote in favor of joining the Russian Federation with over 95%. [30] On March 17, the Government of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea officially asked to join the Russian Federation. [31] The day after, on March 18, Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Crimean leaders signed a bill under which the Crimean Peninsula was incorporated in the Russian Federation. Western countries and Kiev called the treaty invalid and the Crimean referendum unconstitutional, [32] however quickly the Crimean issues was mulled since other regions in Eastern Ukraine began demanding their independence and pro-Russian rallies starting taking place in several cities, such as Kharkiv, Odessa, Luhansk, Donetsk etc. At the moment Crimea de facto belongs to the Russian Federation, even if a part of the international community does not recognize the annexation.

Following the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation several pro-Russian and pro-Putin demonstrations took place in numerous cities in Southeastern Ukraine and Russia.

Meanwhile, Russian Armed Forces were holding several reoccurring military war games along its western borders, which resulted in an amassing of over 30,000 troops; armor, artillery and air assets. [33]

On March 24, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense ordered its remaining forces in Crimea to withdraw. The same day it was also announced that about 50% of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the peninsula had defected to Russia. [34] [35]

During the first weeks of April, Russia decides to end the gas discount agreement and threatens to cut off gas supply if Ukraine fails to pay its gas bills. On April 6, several governmental building in the cities of Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk were captured by pro-Russian activists, demanding the declaration of independence from Ukraine for each region and the authorization of a referendum to decide the future of the regions. Turmoil also took place in the city of Odessa. [36] On April 7, the People's Republic of Donetsk proclaimed its independence and announced a referendum to be held on May 11 on the question of becoming part of the Russian Federation. [37] The following day the Ukrainian Government announces that the Ukrainian forces will conduct antiterrorist operations in eastern Ukraine in order to regain control of the government buildings in the region. Indeed, Ukrainian forces manage to regain control of the city of Kharkiv [38], however they declare unable to regain control in the Donetsk and Luhansk areas, where the pro-Russian separatists manage to defeat the governmental forces and expand their control on other cities including the major city of Slovyansk. [39] [40]

On April 17, in a conference held in Geneva in order to defuse the crisis and arrange a truce; the USA, Russia, EU and Ukraine reached an agreement to de-escalate the crisis and pave the road for an inclusive process of political reform in Ukraine. [41] However the agreement was ephemeral, as clashes between pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian forces continued. [42] Fierce clashes between separatists and governmental forces continued throughout April.

On May 11, Donetsk and Luhansk declared independence after referendums were held, which legitimacy was questioned by Kiev and the West despite the claimed overwhelming majority of the votes in favor of secession. [43] Throughout the rest of May, clashes intensify in the regions of Slovyansk, Donetsk and Luhansk with hundreds of people dead. On May 25, Petro Poroshenko the “Chocolate King” wins the Presidential elections with about 56%, however most polling stations in eastern Ukraine were closed. [43]

During the first days of June, pro-Russian rebel forces started a systematic offensive targeting major border control stations near the Eastern Ukraine-Russian borders, managing to capture the Border Guard Headquarters, establishing thusly an unhindered supply corridor from Russia. [46] [47]

On June 7, Petro Poroshenko is sworn in as Ukraine’s fifth President. During his inaugural address the new President called the pro-Russian separatists to lay down arms and end the fighting, promising amnesty and showing a strong desire for national reconciliation and normalization in the relations between Ukraine and Russia. [48] Despite the president’s statements, the clashes intensified around the rebel stronghold of Slovyansk and Luhansk and the airport of Kramatorsk, while the Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov ordered the immediate deployment of police forces from all Ukraine to the Eastern Ukraine in order to assist the military units operating in the area and restore order and stability. [49] [50] [51]

The pro-Russian separatists shot down a Ukrainian military transport plane, leaving 49 dead on June 14. The downing of the military transport plane resulted in violent protests outside Russia’s Embassy in Kiev, with embassy vehicles and premises being attacked. [52]

On June 16, Russia announced that it has halted deliveries of natural gas to Ukraine, after days of unsuccessful negotiations for the settlement of the Ukrainian gas debt and a discounted price between the two countries. [53] On the same day, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko proposed a ceasefire in the Eastern Ukraine, which was eventually put in effect on June 20 in the form of a week-long unilateral ceasefire on behalf of Kiev, calling the rebels to lay down arms and surrender. [54] [55] [56] The following day Russian President Vladimir Putin gave his support to the peace plan tabled by the President of Ukraine and the ceasefire, calling Kiev to start productive dialogue with the separatists without preconditions in order to put an end to the crisis. The Russian President underlined that the ceasefire should not be used as an ultimatum. [57]

During the first day of peace talks in Donetsk, pro-Russian rebels agreed to honor the ceasefire, however that positive development was evanescent as the following day clashes re-erupted as separatist forces shot down a military transport helicopter. [58] [59]

On June 24, President Putin asked from the upper house of Parliament to rescind the Authorization of Use of Force in Ukraine adopted on the 1^st of March 2014. [60]

On July 1, President Poroshenko announced the end of the week-long fragile ceasefire, reportedly violated numerous times by both sides. Simultaneously, the Ukrainian Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) resumed its offensive on rebel positions, employing air, artillery and infantry assets. It is believed, that Poroshenko’s decision was influenced by numerous protests that took place in Kiev demanding the end of the ceasefire. Moscow expressed its disappointment in the Ukrainian President’s decision, stating that Poroshenko has taken on responsibility for the political and military crisis in Ukraine. [61]

Subsequently on July 3, Valery Heletey was appointed as the new Defense Minister of Ukraine. The newly appointed Defense Minister promised that the Ukrainian Army will parade victorious in Sevastopol. [62] Following the appointment of Colonel-General Heletey as Ukraine’s new Defense Minister, the Ukrainian Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) achieved major success against the separatist forces, recapturing the major rebel stronghold city of Slovyansk and several smaller cities, towns and villages. [63] [64] Reportedly, the ATO has managed to capture roughly half of the rebel territory. Currently, pro-Russian separatist forces have retreated to their major stronghold areas – Donetsk and Luhansk – and are digging in in order to repel the imminent attacks from the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Despite their retreat the pro-Russians accomplished another deadly hit against the ATO forces, killing an estimated number of 30 soldiers and injuring another 93, when rockets blasted a Ukrainian Army barracks. [65] [66]



Source: Ukrainian Council of National Security and Defense

Between 11 and 13 of July, reportedly the Ukrainian Army started artillery and air strikes against the rebel strongholds of Donetsk and Luhansk, while rebels claim that they have downed a number of Ukrainian air assets. Meanwhile, Russia claims that Ukrainian Armed forces have repeatedly violated its territory, as artillery shells have landed in Russian residential areas near the borders and border guard stations, while a Ukrainian warplane violated its airspace. [67] [68] [69] [70] [71]

It appears that the Ukrainian crisis is entering a new round as it remains to be seen whether impulsiveness and recklessness will triumph over forbearance and logic. [72] [73] [74]