Swing States – Spending Link

States

Swing States – Spending Link

Spending will galvanize conservative voters in swing states --- causing Romney to win Iowa, New Hampshire and Virginia.

But spending and debt are big issues in the American heartland, too. And that's why Romney spent time on the trail in Des Moines Tuesday, with a speech decrying excessive government spending. Concern over federal spending is what drove the tea party movement into existence in 2009, and it's an issue that hasn't gone away in 2012. It's what's driving Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker's momentum in next month's gubernatorial recall, with a deficit-conscious GOP base showing high levels of enthusiasm. (It's also an effective message with independents: Check out this new ad from Republican New Mexico Senate candidate Heather Wilson that's focused squarely on the debt, deficit and spending -- in a Democratic-leaning state.) When pollsters ask voters what their most important issue is, the catch-all "jobs and the economy" comes first. But the number of voters naming the deficit rose in 2010 and has remained largely constant, and it's an issue that's driving conservatives to the polls. It's also a way for Romney to criticize the president on the economy in states that haven't suffered the brunt of the downturn. New Hampshire is another state with a solid economy, but one receptive to Romney's small-government messaging. Indeed, the RNC held a conference call today, featuring former New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu and former New Hampshire Rep. Jeb Bradley, decrying Obama's record on debt and deficits. Obama may be leading in early Granite State polls, but the Romney campaign is optimistic about their chances there, hoping to take advantage of the state's "live free or die" sentiment. If Obama needs high levels of youth and minority turnout to win a second term, Romney needs a restive base anxious about the fiscal future of the country to show up in big numbers. That's the ticket to a Romney victory in states like Iowa, New Hampshire, and Virginia -- where the economy is pretty good but voter dissatisfaction still runs high.

Swing States – Economy Key

A strong economy is key to picking up swing states and negating the “grumpy voter” effect.

Politico, 5/31/2012 (president Obama’s good news-bad news economy, p. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0512/76928.html)

President Barack Obama has watched a stubborn national economy dim his reelection chances.

But the real economic battle for election 2012 will take place in the states. Some key battlegrounds are doing better than the nation as a whole. And even if the president’s policies didn’t cause the improvement, it could help his case that the economic outlook has brightened under his stewardship. The state numbers take on an added significance after another weak jobs report Friday. The national rate inched up to 8.2 percent and the economy added just 69,000 jobs in May — well below expectations of 150,000. The unemployment rate for the nation isn’t likely to be much below 8 percent on Nov. 6 —and could be higher. But auto and steel workers in battleground Ohio are getting jobs again. The unemployment rate in the state on Election Day is expected to be close to 7 percent. “Most of the swing states by the third quarter of this year will have a lower unemployment rate than the national average,” said Xu Cheng, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics who compiled the latest state-by-state economic data and updated Moody’s voting model for POLITICO. “And most of the battlegrounds will be below 8 percent unemployment, which will negate the ‘grumpy voter effect.’” Cheng was referring to data suggesting voters will discount by half any improvement in joblessness if the national rate remains above 8. The Moody’s model, which accounts for unemployment, historical voting patterns, per capita income and other factors, currently predicts Obama will win at least 26 states and 303 electoral votes. The model is one of the few to forecast voting patterns based on economic statistics and other data. In 2008, it came within 25 votes of Obama’s margin in the Electoral College. Of course, a lot can change between now and November. Europe is again on the cusp of crisis, with Greece possibly leaving the euro. Markets could grow skittish over the prospect of the “fiscal cliff” that will hit early next year when up to $7 trillion in tax cuts expire and spending cuts could slam the economy. Home prices appear to have bottomed out in many key places, but they could fall further. And the national numbers do still matter. Headlines on weak jobs reports don’t help Obama. The stock market, which took a big hit in recent weeks as fears about Europe mounted, has a big impact on consumer confidence and voting behavior. A falling Dow often means a faltering incumbent. The economic situation faced by voters in swing states, though, is a major factor, one that also could hurt Obama in states that are doing worse than the national average, such as Florida.

States key - Swing States depend on unemployment rate

Dwyer, Bloomberg view editorial board, 7/6/12 [Paula. “Swing-State Unemployment Is the Number to Watch.” Bloomberg. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-06/swing-state-unemployment-is-the-number-to-watch.html/accessed: 7/17/12]

The market's reaction to the U.S. monthly jobs report has been desultory. And for good reason: The modest gain in U.S. nonfarm payrolls of 80,000 in June is less than the 100,000 median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Private employment, which excludes government jobs, increased by only 84,000, the weakest jump in 10 months.¶ The overall rate of unemployment remained steady at 8.2 percent. Hours and wages rose slightly, but for the third consecutive month, there were too few jobs. Wage earners continue to take it on the chin as the economic recovery slows.¶ So that means President Barack Obama's re-election is in serious trouble, right? Not necessarily. Unemployment figures offer important clues to the outcome of a presidential election; as many commentators have pointed out, only one president since World War II has been re-elected with a jobless rate above 7.2 percent. That president was Ronald Reagan, who won his second term in 1984 with unemployment at 7.2 percent, a rate that had fallen almost three percentage points over the previous 18 months.¶ This year, however, the overall jobless rate may be the wrong number on which to fixate. If you look just at the dozen swing states that could decide the Nov. 6 election, unemployment is much lower at 7.5 percent -- not far from Reagan's 7.2 percent benchmark. The numbers range from Nevada's high of 11.6 percent to New Hampshire's low of 5 percent. With four more months of' payroll reports to go, Obama could beat or match the lucky number.¶ Some political scientists say that the overall condition of the economy influences voters more than regional variations. It's also possible that the economy will continue to weaken and both the national and 12-state averages could look worse come Nov. 6. In which case, Obama could well lose to Mitt Romney, the likely Republican nominee.¶ If you narrow the lens even more to the four states that some political junkies insist are the only battlegrounds that truly matter -- Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire and Virginia -- the average unemployment rate is surprisingly low at 6 percent. If you want to keep score at home, watch those states.

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