Election Disadvantage
US/Israel Relations Good – War
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- Israeli-Arab war escalates to global nuclear war.
- Obama Weakness 2NC
- Obama’s submissive foreign policy results in global aggression --- multiple scenarios of conflict.
- Iranian proliferation causes nuclear war.
US/Israel Relations Good – WarUS/Israel relations are key to prevent Israeli-Arab warOren, 7/1/2002 (Michael – senior fellow at the Shalem Center in Jerusalem, Does the U.S. finally understand Israel?, Commentary, p. Highbeam Research) For one thing, Arab leaders have drawn conclusions from U.S. policy that are seldom those intended by Washington. Friction between Israel and the U.S. is almost always perceived among Arabs as an opening to be exploited in their ongoing war against the Jewish state. Although U.S. policymakers believe that leaning on Israel is a means of maintaining tranquility, in the Arab world such pressure tends to foster the belief that the United States will at the very least keep Israel on a tight leash and perhaps coerce it into accepting terms more favorable to the Arab side. In this way, U.S. ambivalence reinforces Arab recalcitrance and sets in motion a vicious cycle: the harder the U.S. pushes Israel to make concessions in the name of "peace," the more elusive real peace becomes. Israeli-Arab war escalates to global nuclear war.Piper, staff writer for the American Free Press, April 12 2004 (Michael Collins, “Israeli Nuclear Policies Threaten World Peace,” http://www.americanfreepress.net/03_07_04/Israeli_Nuclear_Policies/israeli_nuclear_policies.html) Most Americans have no idea that the possibility of a full-fledged nuclear “suicide bombing” by the state of Israel itself is a cornerstone of Israel’s national security planning. However, there are some U.S. policymakers who have dared to express their concerns about this dangerous policy, which is known as what Pulitzer Prize-winning author Seymour Hersh referred to, in the book by the same name, “The Samson Option.” As Hersh has documented—and Israeli historian Avner Cohen has confirmed it in even more detail in his own book, Israel and the Bomb—Israel’s entire national defense policy (from its inception) was framed around the development of powerful nuclear bombs. As Hersh makes clear, the Israelis are willing, if necessary, to “blow up the world”—including themselves—if they have to do so in order to defeat their Arab foes. The so-called “Samson Option” for Israel is based on the well-known story of Samson in the Bible, who—after being captured by the Philistines—brought down Dagon’s temple in Gaza and killed himself along with a number of Philistines. As Hersh put it: “For Israel’s nuclear advocates, the Samson Option became another way of saying ‘Never Again’.” Obama Weakness 2NCReelecting Obama results in appeasement and signals American weakness.Wright, 5/4/2012 (Kevin – founder and director of the Old Dominion Research Group, Obama’s Foreign Policy: Continued Appeasement Will Bring the Ultimatum, Think FY, p. http://www.thinkfy.com/content/obamas-foreign-policy-continued-appeasement-will-bring-ultimatum) This is the choice we face in the November election on foreign policy: stand strong and project our strength or accommodate and appease our adversaries. Both have consequences, but as Reagan said, “every lesson of history tells us that the greater risk lies in appeasement.” With President Obama’s record, the choice is crystal clear which side he stands on: a policy of accommodation and appeasement. Consider the events that have unfolded over the past three years with Russia and China: Only eight months into his first year as Commander-in-Chief, President Barack Obama waved a white flag to “our adversaries” by choosing Russia over “two key NATO allies” (Poland and the Czech Republic) in abandoning missile defense; a move that “will be hailed by the Kremlin as a big victory” and as a “sign of weakness.” Oh, and don’t forget that Obama announced the decision on the 70th Anniversary of the Soviet invasion of Poland and received no concessions from Russia in return. At the same time Obama was trying to appease Russia by abandoning missile defense plans, Obama was trying to appease the Communist Chinese by postponing a meeting with Tibetan spiritual leader Dalai Lama. Obama’s submissive foreign policy results in global aggression --- multiple scenarios of conflict.Chapin and Hanson, 12/7/2009 (Bernard - interviewer and Victor Davis - Martin and Illie Anderson senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, Change, weakness, disaster, p. http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/change-weakness-disaster-obama-answers-from-victor-davis-hanson/) BC: Are we currently sending a message of weakness to our foes and allies? Can anything good result from President Obama’s marked submissiveness before the world? Dr. Hanson: Obama is one bow and one apology away from a circus. The world can understand a kowtow gaffe to some Saudi royals, but not as part of a deliberate pattern. Ditto the mea culpas. Much of diplomacy rests on public perceptions, however trivial. We are now in a great waiting game, as regional hegemons, wishing to redraw the existing landscape — whether China, Venezuela, Iran, North Korea, Pakistan, Syria, etc. — are just waiting to see who’s going to be the first to try Obama — and whether Obama really will be as tenuous as they expect. If he slips once, it will be 1979 redux, when we saw the rise of radical Islam, the Iranian hostage mess, the communist inroads in Central America, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, etc. BC: With what country then — Venezuela, Russia, Iran, etc. — do you believe his global repositioning will cause the most damage? Dr. Hanson: I think all three. I would expect, in the next three years, Iran to get the bomb and begin to threaten ever so insidiously its Gulf neighborhood; Venezuela will probably cook up some scheme to do a punitive border raid into Colombia to apprise South America that U.S. friendship and values are liabilities; and Russia will continue its energy bullying of Eastern Europe, while insidiously pressuring autonomous former republics to get back in line with some sort of new Russian autocratic commonwealth. There’s an outside shot that North Korea might do something really stupid near the 38th parallel and China will ratchet up the pressure on Taiwan. India’s borders with both Pakistan and China will heat up. I think we got off the back of the tiger and now no one quite knows whom it will bite or when. Obama Weakness 2NC Iranian proliferation causes nuclear war.Henry Sokolsky, executive director – nonproliferation policy education center, 10/1/2003, Policy Review, p. lexis If nothing is done to shore up U.S. and allied security relations with the Gulf Coordination Council states and with Iraq, Turkey, and Egypt, Iran's acquisition of even a nuclear weapons breakout capability could prompt one or more of these states to try to acquire a nuclear weapons option of their own. Similarly, if the U.S. fails to hold Pyongyang accountable for its violation of the NPT or lets Pyongyang hold on to one or more nuclear weapons while appearing to reward its violation with a new deal--one that heeds North Korea's demand for a nonaggression pact and continued construction of the two light water reactors--South Korea and Japan (and later, perhaps, Taiwan) will have powerful cause to question Washington's security commitment to them and their own pledges to stay non-nuclear. In such a world, Washington's worries would not be limited to gauging the military capabilities of a growing number of hostile, nuclear, or near-nuclear-armed nations. In addition, it would have to gauge the reliability of a growing number of nuclear or near-nuclear friends. Washington might still be able to assemble coalitions, but with more nations like France, with nuclear options of their own, it would be much, much more iffy. The amount of international intrigue such a world would generate would also easily exceed what our diplomats and leaders could manage or track. Rather than worry about using force for fear of producing another Vietnam, Washington and its very closest allies are more likely to grow weary of working closely with others and view military options through the rosy lens of their relatively quick victories in Desert Storm, Kosovo, Operation Iraqi Freedom, and Just Cause. This would be a world disturbingly similar to that of 1914 but with one big difference: It would be spring-loaded to go nuclear. Directory: files files -> Answer True False 2 points Question 2 files -> Integer programming and game theory files -> 4 Integer Programming files -> Bpa vehicle Window Repair Scenario #1 task: Procure vehicle window relacement. Objective files -> Pop Warner History files -> North Carolina Inclusion Initiative Mapping Where Children with ieps are Being Served Purpose files -> Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Program Data: Standard 1 Exhibit 4d files -> Hanban – asia society confucius classrooms network 2010 request for proposal files -> Northern England’s set-jetting locations Download 1.8 Mb. Share with your friends:
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