Source: Thomas R. Leinbach and Chia Lin Sien, South-East Asian Transport, 1989
As an income level rises or the quality of regular public transport service is improved, the paratransit demand transfers to private cars or regular public transport modes. In cities of developed countries with a high income and good public transport systems, the very low share of paratransit modes indicates the situation.
Increase of Travels for Non-Commuting Activities In cities of developing countries, travel for shopping, socialization, and recreational activities is in a steady increase. In the case of Seoul, travels for shopping in 1996 increased almost twice than in 1982. As shown in
, travels for shopping appear to increase with income growth.
4.4 Challenges and Tasks for the Future
Main transport problems in the cities of the APEC region can be summarized into 3 issues; traffic congestion problems, environmental issues, and transport system problems. Traffic congestion is mainly due to the insufficient road space, the poor network of roads, lack of efficiency in public transport, and improper development of land use. Environmental issues, such as air pollution from
Change in Modal Shares of Daily Trips by Purpose in Selected Cities
Unit: %
Hong Kong
1990
1995
Commuting
18.9
18.4
Work & Business
33.1
34.3
School
22.4
22.2
Shopping, Social, Recreational, etc.
25.6
25.1
Seoul
1982
1996
Commuting
39.0
30.6
Work & Business
-
17.1
School
31.7
15.8
Shopping, Social, Recreational, etc.
29.31)
36.4
Singapore
1990
1995
Commuting
50
50
Work & Business
18
18.5
School
0.7
0.9
Shopping, Social, Recreational, etc.
31.3
30.6
Vancouver
1985
1994
Commuting
35.1
33.2
Work & Business
3.3
2.4
School
10.7
10.8
Shopping, Social, Recreational, etc.
50.9
53.6
Jakarta
1990
1995
Commuting
19.1
20.1
Work & Business
-
34.5
School
80.9
19.1
Shopping, Social, Recreational, etc
-
26.3
Note: 1)Including Work & Business
vehicle emissions, are basically due to high volume of vehicles, especially high portion of automobiles. In addition, bad fuels and traffic congestion increase the production of pollutants. Transport system problems are from the irrelevance of the legal system, policy making and strategic planning and implementation.
The following questions are to be answered to resolve the transport problems the APEC countries are facing with.
What type of transport system should be introduced under the situation where they have
limited funds and suffer from the fast growing travel demand ?
How can they overcome the environmental problems such as air pollution and noise in the
process of economic growth and urbanization ?
How can they avoid the trial-and-errors of advanced countries?
Improvement of Public Transport Service High availability and reliability are the key aspects of public transport services. For this, first of all, it is necessary to expand urban rail networks and bus routes reasonably. For good circulation of buses, exclusive bus lanes and bus preference signal set-ups are effective. Currently, in parts of the APEC countries, exclusive bus lanes are operated, but because of the deteriorating traffic conditions which cause difficulties with the proper operation of bus, additional provisions, such as bus gate system or exclusive central bus lane should be provided.
Construction of public transport information system using ITS and GPS technologies will be useful for travelers to reduce the waiting time. Where the buses play an leading role in urban transport, the proper arrangement of transfer facilities is a very important task.
Improvement of Public Transport Management and Operation Public transport management is controlled and/or supported by governmental regulations directly or indirectly. On the whole, there are 3 types of public transport management; public, private, and mixed form. In case of Seoul, bus services are provided by private companies, without financial support from government. Therefore, service qualities vary depending on the firms since private firms would operate for profit maximization. On the other hand, in case of Tokyo where public transport is managed by the city government, the quality of public transport service is consistent, though it suffers from financing problems in running the bus network.
Whether public or private, it is necessary to operate a service system based on the competition and self-regulation. In order to improve the balance of public transport management, it is also necessary to adjust the fare to a reasonable level so that operating cost could be lower than that of private car. In cities where subways are run, it is important to provide a transfer discount for the users who transfer between bus and subway, with the provision of convenience facilities for them.
Connection between Public Transport and Other Modes Public transport can promote transportation efficiency when all the transport modes can be efficiently connected – bus, subway, private automobiles, and even non-motorized vehicles and walking. Network of bus routes should be built reasonably for the efficient bus services, in particular. However, bus route systems in most cities of the APEC region have been designed for bus only, without consideration of the connection with other modes and expose much problems in the context of urban transport system, such as following the same course as subway, bad bending route, etc. Subway system may have bad routes when they are not planned from a long-term perspective but prepared to meet the short-term travel needs. It is ideal to set up a two-way system; express trunk lines and local lines.
Ch 5. Traffic Accident, Energy Consumption and Environmental Issues
5.1 Traffic Accidents, Injuries and Fatalities
In the APEC Region, it is estimated that more than 200,000 people are killed and more than 3 million people get injured by traffic accidents. If such a trend continues, by the early 2000s, the annual fatalities from traffic accidents are predicted to increase to 450,00025. While in developed countries damages from traffic accidents are gradually decreasing, in most of developing countries the conditions are rather becoming worse. Comparison by country for the traffic accident situation is shown in
. Fatality for 100,000 people was found to be high in Thailand (28.7), Malaysia (28.4) and Korea (22.9). Fatality for 10,000 cars was high in China (77.8), Thailand (30.0), Malaysia (18.7) and Korea (12.2), whereas it was low in Japan (1.59), Australia (1.75) and Canada (1.84).
Traffic Accidents in APEC Member Economies(1995)
Economy
Accidents
Fatalities
Injuries
Deaths/
100,000
persons
Deaths/
10,000
Vehicles
Deaths/
1 mil
veh-km
Australia('92)
18,790
1,742
17,048
9.9
1.8
1.2(’94)
Brunei
2,834
58
393
19.6
3.7
…
Canada
166,950
3,347
241,800
11.4
1.8
…
Chile
47,602
1,831
45,771
5.1
12.5
…
China
271,843
71,494
159,308
5.9
77.8
…
Hong Kong, China
14,812
260
19,613
4.3
5.4
2.0(’97)
Indonesia
16,510
10,990
23,403(’94)
5.6
8.0
…
Japan
761,800
10,700
922,700
8.6
1.6
1.3(’97)
Korea
248,865
10,323
331,747
22.9
12.2
17.0(’97)
Malaysia
162,491
5,712
46,440
28.4
18.7
…
Mexico('93)
23,091
5,252
35,461
5.9
4.5
…
New Zealand('94)
11,000
580
16,600
16.5
2.9
1.9
Philippines('96)
2,618
645
3,989
0.9
2.9
13.9(’96)
Singapore
6,943
225
6,718
8.6
4.5
…
Chinese Taipei('94)
5,164
3,094
2,937
14.6
7.5
1.0(’92)
Thailand
94,362
16,727
50,718
28.7
30.0
…
USA
2254,241
41,817
3,465,000
15.7
2.1
1.10
Note: … data not available
Sources: UN, IRF
Fatal Accidents and Casualties
shows the trend of traffic accidents based on the fatalities in each country of the APEC region during the period from mid-1980s to the mid-1990s. Malaysia(62.2%), Mexico(57.2%), Chile(53.7%) showed high fatality increases. On the other hand, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Hong Kong experienced fatality decreases.
The percentage of traffic accidents in urban areas appears to be proportional to the degree of urbanization on the whole. Exceptionally, in case of Korea, traffic accident rate in urban areas is relatively low for the degree of urbanization. In comparison of 1986 with 1995, traffic accident rates in urban areas in most countries are decreasing.
shows the traffic accident rates in selected cities. In terms of a fatality per 10,000 cars, Vancouver(1.1) and Taipei(1.6) show lowest traffic accident rates, whereas Manila(10.4), Beijing(5.7) and Hong Kong(4.9) show high accident rates.
Traffic Accidents in Selected Cities (1995)
City, Economy
Accidents
Fatalities
Injuries
Deaths/
100,000
persons
Deaths/
10,000
Vehicles
Beijing
11,035
457
3834
3.7
5.7
Hong Kong
14,812
260
19,613
4.3
4.9
Jakarta(‘96)
1,247
520
1,379
5.7
1.7
Manila(‘90)
53,723
1,099
…
13.8
10.4
Mexico City(‘96)
6,462
217
2,439
2.5
…
Seoul
42,110
865
54,364
8.2
4.2
Singapore
6,943
225
6,718
8.6
4.5
Taipei
291
215
162
8.2
1.6
Tokyo
39,573
292
45,651
3.6
…
Vancouver(‘96)
…
117
32,572
6.3
1.1
Sources: Various
When putting together the analysis, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, USA can be evaluated as advanced countries in terms of traffic safety, whereas China, Korea, Malaysia, Thailand can be classified as countries with a high traffic accident rate. Meantime, when viewing the trend of traffic accident fatality during the period from the mid-1980s and the mid-1990s, the two types of countries are clearly distinguished: worsening and improving. Traffic accident fatalities are decreasing in Australia, Canada, HK, NZ, Singapore, USA, whereas they are increasing in Brunei, Chile, China, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, and Thailand. In Thailand, in particular, the traffic accident fatality increased by as high as 8 times during the same period.
5.3 Energy Consumption in Transportation
Energy resources are the driving forces of socioeconomic development and the demand for energy should be in constant increase. Each country in the Asia-Pacific region has a variety of socioeconomic conditions, but in most of the countries energy demand is rapidly increasing along with industrialization and urbanization. According to a report of the UN, considering the current increase rate of energy consumption, energy demand in Asian countries shall be doubled every 12 years, whereas the world average for doubling is 28 years26.
illustrates the indices from the calculation of annual fuel consumption per vehicle based on fuel consumption amount and number of vehicles for land transportation in each country in the APEC region.
Fuel Consumption Index in Highway Transportation (1995)
Gasoline
Consumption
per
Passenger Car
(ton per year)
Minimum Price of Gas per liter
(1/100SDR)
% of Tax
in Gas Price
Diesel
Consumption
per Vehicle
(ton per year)
Minimum Price of Diesel per liter
(1/100SDR)
% of Tax
in Diesel Price
Brunei
1.68
36
…
6.76
31
…
Chile
2.79
…
…
3.69
…
…
China
…
18
…
…
16
…
Hong Kong, China
1.06
80
60.0
4.27
50
43.3
Indonesia
…
30
…
…
13
…
Japan('94)
0.87
85
49.6
1.56
57
42.9
Korea('94)
1.12
49
60.2
4.22
18
24.6
Malaysia
…
28
…
…
17
…
New Zealand('94)
1.20
42
46.0
…
…
12.0
Philippines
…
23
…
…
18
…
Chinese Taipei('94)
1.40
…
…
1.57
…
…
Thailand
…
23
…
…
20
…
USA
2.41
20
24.4
…
20
28.7
Note: Figures were produced based on the data of IRF’s World Road Statistics ’98 , … data not available
When looking at the annual fuel consumption per auto, USA, Chile, Brunei show high rates, implying that in these countries passengers heavily depend on the automobiles. In other words, they have a fuel-consuming transport system. On the other hand, annual fuel consumption rates per auto in Japan and Hong Kong are fairly low, indicating that they have relatively low auto-dependence. Fuel price and tax rate tells a part of the fuel price policy in each country. Fuel price and tax rate is the highest in Japan and Hong Kong, implying that they hold on to their control policy over high-priced energy consumption. On the other hand, USA can be viewed that it is not attempting energy saving policy through price cut in that both of the fuel price and tax rate are low.
5.4 Vehicle Emission and Air Pollution
According to a research result done in the early 1990s, the Asian region occupied about 20% of CO, HC and NOxemission, and about 10.5% of CO2 emission at that time27.
Although there is no quotable data to analyze the current condition after 10 years from the research, the pollutant emissions in developing countries in Asia in 2000 is expected to increase by 200~300% compared to 1991, according to a report of ESCAP. (Refer to
)
Forecasts of Air Pollution in Selected Countries in APEC Region
Pollution Index
1991
1993
2000
China
100
125
268
Indonesia
100
120
223
Malaysia
100
121
238
Philippines
100
111
159
Korea
100
128
302
Thailand
100
129
314
Source: UNESCAP, State of the Environment in Asia and the Pacific, 1995
It is general that vehicle emission gases occupy major part of air pollutants. The amount of vehicle emission gas differs depending on various conditions such as traffic condition, types and nature of automobiles, and drivers’ behavior. According to a research report presented by ECMT(European Conference of Ministers of Transport), almost all of CO, 60% of NO and HC, 50% of particulate, and about 10% of SO2 are from vehicle emission gases28. The motorcycle, which has a 2-stroke engine, emits much higher amount of pollutants than ordinary vehicles (Refer to
). Besides, two other major causes of the emission are high portion of diesel vehicles, such as bus and truck, and use of dirty fuels.
Emission Factors by Vehicle Type
Unit: g/liter
Vehicle Type
Fuel
CO
HC
NOx
SO2
Lead
Passenger Car
Gasoline
261.93
28.91
17.11
0.58
0.18
Jeep
Gasoline
271.30
40.31
17.73
0.58
0.18
Jeep
Diesel
2.36
0.91
4.45
6.20
…
2 Wheeler(Motorcycle)
Gasoline
368.52
229.92
…
0.58
0.18
3 Wheeler(Tricycle)
Gasoline
249.00
155.40
…
0.58
0.18
Bus
Diesel
18.84
7.30
35.61
6.20
…
Source: R.K Bose and G.A. Mackenzie,”Transport in Delhi: Energy and Environmental Consequencies,” UNEP Industry and Environment Vol 1, pp.21-25, 1993
CO2 and Global Warming
CO2 emissions in the APEC region continue to increase as well. In 1993, the Asian region occupied 41% of the world total CO2 emissions, and China alone occupied 11.6% of the world total CO2 emission.