Future Infrastructure budget cuts are inevitable – We must locate other means of investment to rebuild and innovate
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- NextGen requires financial commitment—a National Infrastructure Bank is key to ensure certainty.
- NextGen jumpstarts the economy—7 warrants.
- Aviation capability decline creates a ripple effect that collapses the economy.
- Economic decline heightens the risk of global conflict — multiple scenarios .
Adv: Aviation Advantage1AC AviationNextGen development is inevitable—the only problem is investment insecurity.Ashley Halsey III, July 4th, 2011 6:20 AM, “Cost could delay air traffic control overhaul.” CBS News- . Ashley Halsey III—writer for the Washington Post and a former member of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-502223_162-20076623.html Now the Obama administration has embarked on the single most ambitious and expensive national transportation project since completion of the interstate highway system: a program called the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). The NextGen concept sounds simple: Replace an air traffic system based on 60-year-old radar with a satellite-based Global Positioning System (GPS) network that would be far more versatile and efficient. In reality, it is an extraordinarily complex undertaking, threatened with delay by airline fears that the government will not deliver the system in time to justify their expenditures.¶ NextGen demands the largest investment ever made in civil aviation: between $29 billion and $42 billion for equipment, software and training by 2025. The cost would be shared by a federal government struggling with budget constraints and an airline industry that has been drained by years of recession and high fuel prices. Those tensions over funding threaten to slow the launch of NextGen, despite near-universal support for the program, and delays could prove costly. NextGen is touted as the antidote to gridlock in the air travel system, forecast to be serving 1 billion passengers a year by 2021, up from 713 million last year.¶ With GPS precision, planes would be able to travel packed skies in safety at much closer distances. They would be able to fly direct routes, unlike in the current system, which relies heavily on flying to waypoints before turning to a final destination.¶ Direct routing would save airlines billions in fuel costs and minimize pollution. It would permit far more precise choreography of planes at airports, reducing the amount of fuel wasted waiting for takeoff or burned because planes waiting to land are ordered into holding patterns.¶ For passengers, NextGen would cut flight delays, eliminate time spent on the runway waiting to take off, shorten the flight time once airborne and bring fuel savings that promise to keep ticket prices lower.¶ As for evidence of the rapid pace of technological advancement, one need look no further than GPS. The technology is advancing so quickly that some car buyers opt against the factory-installed unit for fear that it will be outdated in a year or two.¶ Airlines have the same issue.¶ "If I go first, I'll have to bear the cost of updating the software, and when [NextGen is] turned on, I'll have the oldest, most obsolete systems out there," Chew said.¶ In addition, the FAA must clear through a jungle of procedures and retrain 15,475 air traffic controllers to deal with a system that will entirely replace the old one.¶ "A lot of the tough stuff is new procedures, is human-machine interface and human factors, moving from an air traffic control mind frame to an air traffic management mind frame" that puts greater responsibility in the hands of pilots, said Bobby Sturgell, former acting FAA administrator.¶ Congress has tossed more uncertainty into the mix by extending the current FAA funding plan 20 times rather than approving a comprehensive long-term spending plan that imposes strict NextGen deadlines on the agency.¶ "NextGen is threatened," Chew said. "Everyone knows it. The FAA budget is under pressure. Even they will say that NextGen is on track, but it's not." NextGen requires financial commitment—a National Infrastructure Bank is key to ensure certainty.National Association of Manufacturers, 2012, “Expediting Air Traffic Modernization and Accelerating NextGen: NextGen to NowGen.” The National Association of Manufacturers is the top manufacturing agency in the world, dealing with aviationand military needs. http://www.nam.org/~/media/9D17E31A28104FE69FBBE244FEEB59E9/NextGen_to_NowGen.pdf Encouraging Investment in Equipment: Investing in avionics and other equipment and training in support of the NextGen system is a multi-billion-dollar investment that airlines and operators are unable to justify when the government has not made a clear commitment that the supporting NextGen air traffic equipment and services will be deployed in the near-term. A federal program or initiative that would incentivize early purchase decisions for NextGen airbone capability will support a business case to equip by reducing investment risk and making NextGen a stronger certainty. The Nation’s Air Transportation System is Infrastructure: Although we are experiencing an unprecedented economic downturn of global proportions, the rest of the world and our major competitors are heavily investing in infrastructure. Targeting investments that modernize the strongest and most essential parts of our nation’s infrastructure must be encouraged not only for our economic survival and competitiveness, but as a point of national pride. As Congress and the Administration consider the development of a National Infrastructure Bank in the coming months, the NAM believes NextGen could benefit from this innovative approach to infrastructure financing. NextGen jumpstarts the economy—7 warrants.James C. May, March 18, 2009. “Air Traffic Control Modernization and Near-Term Achievable Goals” White House Backfiles. James C. May is the President and CEO of Air Transportation Association of America, Inc., this is from his statement before the Subcommittee on Aviation of the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure. http://www.whitehouse.gov/files/documents/cyber/Congress%20-%20NextGen%20ATS%20HouseAvSubc_090318_ATAWritten_FINAL.pdf The FAA ATC modernization project – the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) – will usher in a new era of air traffic management and control that promises enormous benefits for all stakeholders and the American people. Public benefits include improved operational efficiency, reduced fuel consumption and emissions and lower operating costs for airlines. ATA strongly supports NextGen because it addresses numerous critical needs:¶ ␣ Capacity. The current ATC system is saturated and, in some locations, cannot provide the capacity to meet public demand for convenient, safe air transportation. This situation inhibits competition and industry growth. It also is the source of unnecessary congestion and delays, and compounds the effect of weather-related delays. NextGen will enable more precise spacing of aircraft and flight paths, which will allow FAA to handle safely and efficiently the traffic growth that it forecasts. Efficiency and Productivity. NextGen will enable more efficient flying. Today’s ground-based radar system requires planes to fly over specific points on the ground to maintain radar and communications contact. Navigational aids, radar and controllers are all terrestrial. They are linked to form a complex network system that supports airways, through which aircraft fly. Today’s system also requires spacing to accommodate the time it takes for radar to detect objects. Consequently, aircraft fly indirect routings and aircraft spacing – required for safety – wastes capacity. Today’s ATC system cannot, and never will be able to, take full advantage of available technology or integrate and fully exploit emerging technology.¶ The environmental and economic impact of today’s inefficient ATC system is illustrated below. The flight in this example burned an additional 1,493 pounds of fuel (218 gallons). This added an extra 4,560 pounds of carbon dioxide (CO2) that was released into the air and cost the carrier an extra $688 in fuel (given razor-thin margins, this is significant).¶ In contrast to today’s ATC system, NextGen will enable: optimized, direct routings between airports; reduced aircraft spacing; continuous descent arrivals, precise arrival and departure routings (known as RNAV and RNP procedures), and closely spaced approaches on parallel runways in instrument flight rule conditions. These are just a few of the operational benefits of NextGen.¶ These efficiency enhancements will drive significant improvements in productivity – both in terms of asset utilization and personnel. That, in turn, will reduce operating costs, which will help keep fares down and enable those savings to be plowed back into wages and benefits and operating capital.¶ Improved ATC efficiency also will benefit private aircraft owners. Corporations use private aircraft with the expectation that such use is efficient. While we disagree with that proposition, ATC modernization will provide corporate aircraft owners the same kind of efficiency benefits that commercial airlines will enjoy if their aircraft are properly equipped. Even if they are not properly equipped, they still will enjoy a spinoff benefit simply from operating in the same airspace as more efficient commercial aircraft.¶ ␣ Environmental Benefits. More efficient operations also will use less fuel, increasing aircraft fuel efficiency and reducing greenhouse gas and other emissions. It was estimated initially that full implementation of NextGen would reduce emissions significantly. The environmental benefits of ATC modernization are real and important. Improved fuel efficiency also will reduce operating costs and contribute to improved financial conditions that, like the productivity improvements discussed above, will benefit the public and employees.¶ ␣ Operational Integrity and Customer Satisfaction. Closely linked to capacity, efficiency and productivity is operational integrity. By expanding capacity and enabling more efficient operations, NextGen will enable better on-time performance and improved customer satisfaction. Today’s outdated ATC system contributes to delays and disruptions that could be avoided and will be avoided when NextGen is implemented. With improved operational integrity comes fewer delays, fewer missed connections, fewer misplaced checked bags and more satisfied customers.¶ ␣ Safety. The NextGen satellite-based system will look and act much like a network to which aircraft and ATC are interconnected. It will provide more precise information to both controllers and pilots about aircraft locations, both in the air and on the ground, and will enable aircraft to constantly know one another’s locations. This locational awareness and corresponding digital communications capability will provide critical real-time flight status information not available today. Some of the technology and operating procedures already have been tested and produced dramatic results. A sharp drop in aircraft accidents in Alaska occurred under the Capstone Program, introduced earlier this decade, which utilizes ADS-B technology, a foundational technology for NextGen.¶ ␣ Scalability. NextGen will be considerably more nimble than today’s facility- and labor-intensive system. Accordingly, it will be much easier for the FAA to scale the system to meet demand from all aviation sectors, whether that demand is a steady growth curve or fluctuates from time to time. Automation and digital data communications will make it easier for the FAA to adjust the system as needed.¶ ␣ Improved Financial Performance. Modernization will respond to legitimate shareholder expectations that the airlines they invest in will earn a positive return on investment. The current ATC system hobbles the industry’s ability to achieve financial stability because of the costs it drives by being inefficient. As noted above, these failures lead to costly delays and congestion.¶ Aviation capability decline creates a ripple effect that collapses the economy.NBAA ‘09 (National Business Aviation Association, “General Aviation Industry Hurting During Economic Downturn”, 3-30, http://www.nbaa.org/advocacy/issues/economic-downturn/recession.php) General aviation is an essential economic generator directly or indirectly employing over 1.26 million people nationwide according a 2006 economic study by Merge Global. These jobs generate $150 billion in economic activity across the United States, including states like California ($18B), Texas ($11B), Georgia ($9B), and Kansas ($7B). Our industry is continuing to build a strong American manufacturing and employment base that contributes positively to our national balance of trade. Congress recognized just how fundamental general aviation is to our nation's transportation system, rural economies, manufacturing capability, and balance of trade when it passed the General Aviation Revitalization Act a little more than a decade ago.¶ There's no question that in communities across the country, general aviation means millions of jobs: jobs in aircraft manufacture (the U.S. industry leads the world), jobs for people in small towns (where companies use airplanes to reach new markets), and jobs in flight support (including schedulers, dispatchers, maintenance technicians, pilots, training professionals, and airport employees to name just a few examples).¶ Unfortunately, the people and businesses in general aviation are weathering one of the worst economic storms anyone has ever seen. The impact of the flagging economy on the companies and communities that rely on general aviation is visible in all parts of the country. Following are some examples:¶ GA Manufacturing has been hit hard by the economyThe general aviation industry supports highly skilled, well-paying jobs for engineers and manufacturing line workers who design and build aircraft in places like Savannah, Wichita, and Little Rock and for hundreds of component manufacturers such as GE, Honeywell, and Pratt and Whitney that supply them with parts including many small businesses. GA is an important national industry that contributes greatly to the economy and to local tax bases. These suppliers also contribute extensively to aircraft produced by foreign companies like Dassault, Embraer, and Bombardier. The collective direct earnings of general aviation exceed $53 billion.¶ Layoffs¶ The industry started feeling the effects of the downturn last fall and since then US members of the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (employing 144,000 people in the U.S.) have laid off over 12,155 people to adjust to the economy with thousands more among suppliers and additional layoffs pending. In addition, some general aviation manufacturers, including Adam Aircraft and Eclipse Aviation, have declared bankruptcy and ceased production.¶ Backlog and Loss of Orders¶ Our industry held a record backlog of $83 billion at the end of the third quarter 2008, but it is rapidly shrinking. Customers are not placing orders which results in the backlog shrinking by $6-7 billion each quarter. Customers are also cancelling or delaying orders as they manage their own finances and schedule for capital purchases.¶ At the same time, the used aircraft market is saturated with inventory levels for business jets reaching over 17%. Criticism of business aviation risks further flooding the used aircraft market and depressing prices. ¶ Exports¶ Our industry is a strong contributor to U.S. exports with a total of 1,161 airplanes exported in 2008. The export billings reached $5.86 billion. The aggregate aviation industry, including GA has a positive impact on the US trade balance. Our exports accounted for 43.9 percent of the total value of U.S. manufactured general aviation airplanes in 2008. ¶ GA Flight Activity is in Decline¶ According to FAA data, overall general aviation traffic volumes in January 2009 are down 23% compared to January 2008. The same data reports the change in business jet operations is a decline of 28.3 percent for January 2009 compared to January 2008 year-over-year.¶ Small airports are operating ‘in the red'¶ There are more than 5,000 public use airports located in communities across the country. Approximately 470 of these airports have commercial airline service – making general aviation a critical lifeline for smaller communities. Many of these smaller airports are seeing their revenues plummet as general aviation flight hours decrease. For example, Aviation International News recently reported that: "A decline of nearly 20 percent in jet fuel sales has helped drag the Salina Airport Authority's 2008 budget into the red. The airport authority gets 6.6 cents from every gallon of jet fuel sold at the airport. That surcharge provides almost an eighth of the authority's operating revenue. ‘It confirms that business jet use and travel is down,' said Tim Rogers, executive director."¶ The bottom line is that the people and businesses in general aviation are subject to the sluggish economy just like everyone else. And all the information available confirms that when a recession hits general aviation, the impact is felt all across America's economy. Economic decline heightens the risk of global conflict—multiple scenarios.Burrows and Harris 9 Mathew J. Burrows, counselor in the National Intelligence Council, member of the CIA, holds a Ph.D. from Cambridge University, and Jennifer Harris, Member of the Long Range Analysis Unit at the National Intelligence Council, holds an M.Phil. in International Relations from Oxford University, 2009 “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis,” The Washington Quarterly, Volume 32, Issue 2, April, Available http://www.twq.com/09april/docs/09apr_Burrows.pdf, Accessed 08-22-2011, p. 35-37 Of course, the report encompasses more than economics and indeed believes the future is likely to be the result of a number of intersecting and interlocking forces. With so many possible permutations of outcomes, each with ample [end page 35] opportunity for unintended consequences, there is a growing sense of insecurity. Even so, history may be more instructive than ever. While we continue to believe that the Great Depression is not likely to be repeated, the lessons to be drawn from that period include the harmful effects on fledgling democracies and multiethnic societies (think Central Europe in 1920s and 1930s) and on the sustainability of multilateral institutions (think League of Nations in the same period). There is no reason to think that this would not be true in the twenty-first as much as in the twentieth century. For that reason, the ways in which the potential for greater conflict could grow would seem to be even more apt in a constantly volatile economic environment as they would be if change would be steadier. In surveying those risks, the report stressed the likelihood that terrorism and nonproliferation will remain priorities even as resource issues move up on the international agenda. Terrorism’s appeal will decline if economic growth continues in the Middle East and youth unemployment is reduced. For those terrorist groups that remain active in 2025, however, the diffusion of technologies and scientific knowledge will place some of the world’s most dangerous capabilities within their reach. Terrorist groups in 2025 will likely be a combination of descendants of long established groups—inheriting organizational structures, command and control processes, and training procedures necessary to conduct sophisticated attacks—and newly emergent collections of the angry and disenfranchised that become self-radicalized, particularly in the absence of economic outlets that would become narrower in an economic downturn. The most dangerous casualty of any economically-induced drawdown of U.S. military presence would almost certainly be the Middle East. Although Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons is not inevitable, worries about a nuclear-armed Iran could lead states in the region to develop new security arrangements with external powers, acquire additional weapons, and consider pursuing their own nuclear ambitions. It is not clear that the type of stable deterrent relationship that existed between the great powers for most of the Cold War would emerge naturally in the Middle East with a nuclear Iran. Episodes of low intensity conflict and terrorism taking place under a nuclear umbrella could lead to an unintended escalation and broader conflict if clear red lines between those states involved are not well established. The close proximity of potential nuclear rivals combined with underdeveloped surveillance capabilities and mobile dual-capable Iranian missile systems also will produce inherent difficulties in achieving reliable indications and warning of an impending nuclear attack. The lack of strategic depth in neighboring states like Israel, short warning and missile flight times, and uncertainty of Iranian intentions may place more focus on preemption rather than defense, potentially leading to escalating crises. [end page 36] Types of conflict that the world continues to experience, such as over resources, could reemerge, particularly if protectionism grows and there is a resort to neo-mercantilist practices. Perceptions of renewed energy scarcity will drive countries to take actions to assure their future access to energy supplies. In the worst case, this could result in interstate conflicts if government leaders deem assured access to energy resources, for example, to be essential for maintaining domestic stability and the survival of their regime. Even actions short of war, however, will have important geopolitical implications. Maritime security concerns are providing a rationale for naval buildups and modernization efforts, such as China’s and India’s development of blue water naval capabilities. If the fiscal stimulus focus for these countries indeed turns inward, one of the most obvious funding targets may be military. Buildup of regional naval capabilities could lead to increased tensions, rivalries, and counterbalancing moves, but it also will create opportunities for multinational cooperation in protecting critical sea lanes. With water also becoming scarcer in Asia and the Middle East, cooperation to manage changing water resources is likely to be increasingly difficult both within and between states in a more dog-eat-dog world. Directory: files files -> Answer True False 2 points Question 2 files -> Integer programming and game theory files -> 4 Integer Programming files -> Bpa vehicle Window Repair Scenario #1 task: Procure vehicle window relacement. 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